Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[VABILLUPS1]

[SnowGoose69]

43 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

12Z GFS does have southern snow- 16" in Myrtle Beach, 1.5" here. These details will change of course, the main thing is we need to see if the ensembles begin to have more members support another snow event. 

CMC/ICON seem to argue the event at 180 is more TN Valley/CNTRL or NRN MA.  Its possible if the cold push is stronger that might be a GA/SC event too but I'd lean now more to MS/AL/TN and NE front there.  Might even be a tough ask for NC

[snowmaker13]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

CMC/ICON seem to argue the event at 180 is more TN Valley/CNTRL or NRN MA.  Its possible if the cold push is stronger that might be a GA/SC event too but I'd lean now more to MS/AL/TN and NE front there.  Might even be a tough ask for NC

How about Asheville? Would AVL be too warm? 

[Brick Tamland]

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

How about Asheville? Would AVL be too warm? 

Being so far west I would put them in the risk for now

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

This GEFS run’s mean was colder than most of the recent ones for 1/20-22 at H5 and 2m.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro very cold and dry 1/20-22. Cold likely overdone of course, which in this case would be a good thing.

[snowmaker13]

GEFS ensembles 

[Brick Tamland]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro very cold and dry 1/20-22. Cold likely overdone of course, which in this case would be a good thing.

Hopefully it will come back around, but good knowing it did have a storm yesterday for the same time period.

[Cheeznado]

GEFS slight trend to less snow, mainly based on one run, the rest are dry.

[GaWx]

12Z EPS snow mean:

[wncsnow]

Both ensemble means went way down 

[Cheeznado]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z EPS snow mean:

Ensemble trends going the wrong direction, the fat lady is warming up...

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Ensemble trends going the wrong direction, the fat lady is warming up...

The “Brick Storm” on life support already on D9

[HKY_WX]

Can't see past this frame, but kinda surprised there's not some kind of weak surface reflection in the gulf at 168 given the jet amplification. The +PNA is pretty extreme, so it wouldn't take much to have a shortwave dig farther southwest than current advertised. It will be something to keep an eye on.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025011312/ec-fast_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Ensemble trends going the wrong direction, the fat lady is warming up...

The EPS mean precip during 1/21-3 has dropped a lot since 24 hours ago:

[Brick Tamland]

22 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The “Brick Storm” on life support already on D9

I changed my avatar to me yelling at the models to make the storm happen. Sometimes you have to show them who's the boss.

[buckeyefan1]

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I changed my avatar to me yelling at the models to make the storm happen. Sometimes you have to show them who's the boss.

Or all the hot air is melting away all the snow  

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Or all the hot air is melting away all the snow  

You sound like my wife.

[lilj4425]

So now what do we talk about? 

[wxdawg10]

I'm convinced alot of posters here enjoy purposely making themselves suffer. 

 

I suggest reading Coldrain's "what have we learned" Essay after that epic bust a few years ago. Remember it, learn it, live it. 

You'll be happier.

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

So now what do we talk about? 

Another cold week coming next week (1/20-6) per the last two Euro Weeklies runs. Then the cold is done per many runs in a row. Will it be drier than normal for most? Latest ensemble means have gotten drier.

Current 2m:

 

H5:

[cbmclean]

I see we have recovered from the sugar high of those back-to-back GFS/Euro runs yesterday.  All hope is still lost; carry on.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[CentralNC]

Only ray of hope I can offer is usually with these super Arctic outbreaks, they usually leave for good with a grand finale.  Like PD1 in 1979.  Winter came to an abrupt halt after that storm (which was super cold).

[Tacoma]

Guys I'm afraid with such a cold push that all the moisture will be shoved to the Carribean and we will be left with super cold and dry.  We've seen this before, it warms up and rains.  We finally get cold but it's so cold it keeps the moisture well to our south.  We can't win for loosing.  Think I rather have 70 and sunny if we can't get winter precipitation.  Threading the needle isn't the word for what we always face.  

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Guys I'm afraid with such a cold push that all the moisture will be shoved to the Carribean and we will be left with super cold and dry.  We've seen this before, it warms up and rains.  We finally get cold but it's so cold it keeps the moisture well to our south.  We can't win for loosing.  Think I rather have 70 and sunny if we can't get winter precipitation.  Threading the needle isn't the word for what we always face.  

It is far from certain whether or not there actually will be super cold in the SE. Just go back to last week, when super cold was showing on a number of runs at about this point in advance, especially the Euro. The SE ended up with much below normal cold along with a widespread winter storm but no super cold.

[SnowDawg]

We went through the dry suppressed look on the ensembles last time too. Give it time and see if the cold push actually verifies to the extent being shown. More often than not it moderates with time which also tends to pull the moisture back north. We should only be signal hunting at this range, and cold air looks to be around with moisture in the Gulf. Time to play the waiting game again.

[btownheel]

We went through the dry suppressed look on the ensembles last time too. Give it time and see if the cold push actually verifies to the extent being shown. More often than not it moderates with time which also tends to pull the moisture back north. We should only be signal hunting at this range, and cold air looks to be around with moisture in the Gulf. Time to play the waiting game again.

Bingo. Suppressed and stupid cold looks are good honestly at range because the models overdo the degree of cold push approx. 95% of the time.

What you don’t want is riding right on the edge 10 days out for a bomb. That’s gonna trend NW and rain on you 9/10 times. If Randolph and Mortimer Duke are freaking out about an inch of freezing rain destroying the FCOJ market in Florida a week out, that right there is our sweet spot.


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]