Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[strongwxnc]

8 hours ago, CaryWx said:

 

Thats a great graphic. I was trying to explain this to my kids yesterday.  

[CaryWx]

Some Sibir` cold coming in

[PackGrad05]

whatever happens, one thing we have going for us is the snowpack to the north....  will definitely help with a cold air source, especially in marginal events.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Siberian 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Some Sibir` cold coming in

 It isn’t often that a GEFS day 10 mean SLP is projected to be as high as 1040 mb from NW AR to W KY but today’s 6Z has exactly that (hour 225 or as of 15Z on Jan 21st):

 

 Thanks to a progged Siberian Express pattern, 25 of the 30 members then have the center of the high at 1040+ (5 at ~1050) somewhere within the area stretching from MO to TX to PA!

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It isn’t often that a GEFS day 10 mean SLP is projected to be as high as 1040 mb from NW AR to W KY but today’s 6Z has exactly that (hour 225 or as of 15Z on Jan 21st):

 

 Thanks to a progged Siberian Express pattern, 25 of the 30 members then have the center of the high at 1040+ (5 at ~1050) somewhere within the area stretching from MO to TX to PA!

And according to Eric Webb, the airmass is starting at a balmy -40C as it exits Siberia 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[tarheelwx]

Back before Christmas there was talk of an SSW event around late Dec early Jan.   I never heard  much else about it.  Did it ever happen?   Since we know the cold often lags 3-4 weeks, I’m wondering if the Siberian cold we’re seeing modeled has anything to do with an SSW.   Thanks in advance.  
TW

[Prismshine Productions]

Siberian 

The temps that translates to

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[BooneWX]

Soon…(maybe)


.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Back before Christmas there was talk of an SSW event around late Dec early Jan.   I never heard  much else about it.  Did it ever happen?   Since we know the cold often lags 3-4 weeks, I’m wondering if the Siberian cold we’re seeing modeled has anything to do with an SSW.   Thanks in advance.  
TW

There has been no significant SSW event.

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Back before Christmas there was talk of an SSW event around late Dec early Jan.   I never heard  much else about it.  Did it ever happen?   Since we know the cold often lags 3-4 weeks, I’m wondering if the Siberian cold we’re seeing modeled has anything to do with an SSW.   Thanks in advance.  
TW

It happened but it wasn’t a major or even moderate event. Back in late Dec when the models were showing those absurdly cold temps at this date, the TPV lobe that broke off was modeled to be just south of Hudson Bay. Unfortunately - (or fortunately), the Pacific jet gave the lobe a punch that sent it back north. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[StantonParkHoya]

Those 0 degree temps are for the birds unless we can marry up some moisture

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There has been no significant SSW event.

In stark contrast the SPV has actually been near record breaking very strong:

 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[tarheelwx]

16 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

And according to Eric Webb, the airmass is starting at a balmy -40C as it exits Siberia 

I love -40 - it doesn’t matter if you say it’s C or F!!!!!  As for -40 in Siberia, isn’t that a fairly normal January cold for them?   I’m thinking it’s surely below average, but nothing near a record.  
TW

[Regan]

We’ve seen extreme lows like that many times in past years and they don’t pan out at this time range. I find it hard to swallow. Maybe I’m bias because I don’t want it to be that cold. I vote no. That’s not cool. 

[BooneWX]

14 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

You can’t ask for much more at the 500mb level. 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I love -40 - it doesn’t matter if you say it’s C or F!!!!!  As for -40 in Siberia, isn’t that a fairly normal January cold for them?   I’m thinking it’s surely below average, but nothing near a record.  
TW

You’re spot on. Below average for them but not record breaking. 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

If this were for Jan 20-25 instead of 19-25, the %s would be higher in the E 1/4 of the US because Jan 19th is mainly warmer than normal there.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Keep hope alive, fam

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I love -40 - it doesn’t matter if you say it’s C or F!!!!!  As for -40 in Siberia, isn’t that a fairly normal January cold for them?   I’m thinking it’s surely below average, but nothing near a record.  
TW

I agree. But Siberian air doesn’t at all have to be BN there to make it very cold in the US if we have the Siberian Express pattern. Often it is just normal Siberian air that leads to extreme cold in our country. Just like near normal Canadian air plunging down can make it very cold down here.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

Hard to ask for much more than what models are dishing out in the 8-10 day range. I am confident we will be tracking through the period. What a change from last couple winters. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Love it. I will say — when we’re done with this arctic situation through January — I’m ready for spring. Bring on the February bloom.

[NC_hailstorm]

Canadian is barking today and getting real close,lmuch further southeast with the low/cold press at day 9.