Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[cbmclean]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Biggest concern in this pattern would be cold stuck west of apps. Ridge orientation out west will be crucial to make sure cold is directed east and not just into Deep South. Does look like a wetter pattern. There will be chances. The 20th timeframe seems to be the next big threat. As models show, additional cold thereafter. Could be a fun end to Jan and, dare I say, start to fab Feb???

THIS!  As much as I love them in CAD events, I hate the Apps during -EPO cold outbreaks.  It's also frustrating that for some reason the model physics can't resolve how they block low level cold air so they constantly tease us.  

[dsaur]

Still have a 20 percent shot at zr Sunday night. Any time I have moisture moving by underneath and cold air in place I figure I've got a  shot at frozen, and Ptree City must agree.  They are usually not as suppressed as modled when they start moving in.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Busy January 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[strongwxnc]

7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Chilly look for sure.

[BooneWX]

The pattern is definitely supportive but I’m taking things with a major grain of salt unless I see a 1035+ HP in the correct region. I think this pattern will favor highs in the Rockies but TBD if anything further east can pop. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Scary energy bills 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[franklin NCwx]

19 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Good hit for wv and Pittsburgh 

[BornAgain13]

18z GEFS for Day 12. This period is becoming more interesting. 

[NorthHillsWx]

23 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GEFS for Day 12. This period is becoming more interesting. 

That’s a fantastic look at this range 

[BornAgain13]

I know it's far out their but their is a strong signal around that time, give or take a day or two 

[jburns]

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The 20th timeframe seems to be the next big threat.

Let’s keep politics out of the weather side.  

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GEFS for Day 12. This period is becoming more interesting. 

Let's hope the NAM looks better next time.

[StantonParkHoya]

10 minutes ago, jburns said:

Let’s keep politics out of the weather side.  

Would be quite historic for the inauguration to be in a snowstorm

[jburns]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Would be quite historic for the inauguration to be in a snowstorm

It has happened before.  If you’re interested here is a not too long summery of inauguration weather.

https://www.iweathernet.com/weather-history/inauguration-day-weather-highlights-from-the-past

[WinstonSalemArlington]

3 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

I believe 1985 & 1977 are the coldest inauguration. Temps were in the single digits for both 

2009 was Arctic with temps in the teens during the inauguration. I was there and nearly suffered frostbite.  At that time, a raging snowstorm was underway in North Carolina.

[StantonParkHoya]

19 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

2009 was Arctic with temps in the teens during the inauguration. I was there and nearly suffered frostbite.  At that time, a raging snowstorm was underway in North Carolina.

Yes there was. Eastern NC got pounded.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

The overrunning signal late next weekend is clear as day. We’re about to spend a week gnashing teeth on where that cold front stalls. 

[cbmclean]

21 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The overrunning signal late next weekend is clear as day. We’re about to spend a week gnashing teeth on where that cold front stalls. 

Would you mind explaining what you mean by "over running signal".

[CaryWx]

27 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Would you mind explaining what you mean by "over running signal".

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NC_hailstorm]

Euro is barking tonight,nice hit day 8/9 

[VABILLUPS1]

[NorthHillsWx]

4 hours ago, VABILLUPS1 said:

GFS and Euro with extremely similar looks. EPS and GEFS showing support too. This timeframe seems like a credible threat at this juncture

[WXNewton]

GFS Ens. Definitely have a storm signal at the end of the MLK Holiday. This is showing the 21st-24th timeframe. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

Lock it in because I will be away.