wncsnow Posted Monday at 04:33 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:33 PM 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: The CMC does have a cold bias I believe. It definitely does. Still think this is primarily an 85 north system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted Monday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:33 PM 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Part timer here in Augusta, live mostly in Charlotte....Augusta,for those that know the area the past 3 months, can't remotely fathom this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Monday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:37 PM 11 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Just a few more runs and this is likely to be an all cold rain event. Wild swings though for sure. Not sure that's the case, both 12z GFS and Canadian actually developed the wedge stronger and deeper this run when compared to 6z, so if anything this run was colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:38 PM GEFS trending towards a stronger storm and more moisture 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Monday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:38 PM I wouldn't be surprised to see this trend towards a more phased/cut off look given the strong cut off low over the northeast. This really slows down the flow and promotes phasing/cutoffs upstream. We haven't had a setup like this over the Atlantic in many years. The only issue is we don't have a major/classic CAD setup so we will run the risk of a change to rain outside of western NC. That said, the degree of cold air ahead of this system is pretty strong. Will be a fun one to track this week for sure. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM 12z GEFS with more moisture this run and colder. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Average GEFS low track: Just offshore Louisiana, south of Destin to Brunswick GA to Cape Lookout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:42 PM 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: GEFS trending towards a stronger storm and more moisture Warmer upper levels? Colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Big improvements on GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:43 PM I’d take the Canadian Ice storm at this point. Anything is better than today’s weather. Give me anything frozen 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:44 PM 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Big improvements on GEFS Yes, looks better this time. It's been going back and forth the last few runs now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Monday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:45 PM 9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I wouldn't be surprised to see this trend towards a more phased/cut off look given the strong cut off low over the northeast. This really slows down the flow and promotes phasing/cutoffs upstream. We haven't had a setup like this over the Atlantic in many years. The only issue is we don't have a major/classic CAD setup so we will run the risk of a change to rain outside of western NC. That said, the degree of cold air ahead of this system is pretty strong. Will be a fun one to track this week for sure. As you can see below from this view. The Low over the Atlantic will force everything from Canada underneath it. Which increases the odds of a phase and large cutoff system. Could be great for us or could be not so great if we change to rain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:46 PM GEFS is a step forward but if also agrees with the OP and blows the storm up and pounds NE VA and further NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:48 PM 12Z GEFS mean snow (excludes IP/ZR): 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:48 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Monday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:49 PM H5 was improved on the GFS, I'll take that and move on to the next runs. Better phase with the northern energy improved the mid-level thermals and made the front end thump last longer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted Monday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:49 PM 44 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z GFS 24 hour snow: significant increase over recent runs plus significant IP/ZR some areas Granted I'm only looking at GFS, but it seems extreme NE GA (upper Lake Lanier to the intersection of GA/NC/SC) (selfishly the spot i look at) looks good even going back several runs, and trending even better each time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:51 PM Just now, SnowDawg said: H5 was improved on the GFS, I'll take that and move on to the next runs. Better phase with the northern energy improved the mid-level thermals and made the front end thump last longer. ^this. I think a better phase/more amped system is needed to pull in cold air for snow. Track will dictate precip type but a full phase/stronger system with correct track looks like the only way we win in this setup 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:54 PM UK is less ice. Either snow or rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:54 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:55 PM UK with a nice hit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:55 PM 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: UK is less ice. Either snow or rain. Very accurate though with the nose of rain into Wake County JK 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Monday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:56 PM 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: ^this. I think a better phase/more amped system is needed to pull in cold air for snow. Track will dictate precip type but a full phase/stronger system with correct track looks like the only way we win in this setup Yeah, I think I've mistakenly been hoping for a weaker system to reduce warm air advection, but all the weak runs are terrible. Stronger runs are pulling more cold air from nearby into the system. I'm fine with a messy winter storm, I mean that accounts for like 95% of our events, but I'd really like to score nicely on that front end before the mixing starts. GEFS also jumped considerably colder at 850 compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:57 PM Just now, eyewall said: Very accurate though with the nose of rain into Wake County JK Of course. But ends up being a great run for the whole state. I would love this solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Monday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:59 PM We used to have a rule forecasting for ATL and it still applies today as the GFS wedge resolution still is not great that if the GFS could see a wedge beyond 72 hours in ATL you were in big trouble. In this case it not only sees it but has it almost to the metro. The CMC which tends to have better resolution on that feature has the mixed precip back into Bama 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted Monday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:00 PM 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: UK is less ice. Either snow or rain. I think that this model does not show ZR/IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:02 PM Everyone breathe. There’s been no notable trend in models since yesterday other than everything has the storm now and suppression looks extremely unlikely. Pay attention to the lobes of energy moving around the western ridge and the phase with the Baja low. Also watch the antecedent airmass and H5. Really want a stronger HP over the Ohio valley/NE ahead of this system. There’s a good chance nothing resolves today or tomorrow but I expect by tomorrow we will see a trend developing in regards to the phase location and strength. Really hoping this one works out but still not sold given the variables 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:04 PM 5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: I think that this model does not show ZR/IP It shows ZR/IP. You can see a tiny area of it south of RDU. But UK clown maps are questionable where there’s IP/ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Monday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:09 PM 28 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Average GEFS low track: Just offshore Louisiana, south of Destin to Brunswick GA to Cape Lookout Great track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:11 PM The 12z UK was much improved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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