SnowGoose69 Posted Monday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:20 PM 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: ICON looks good at 90 and then at 102 it starts to get strung out. The Euro more or less has that same idea as does the UKMET because the whole thing shears out as it moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 03:22 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:22 PM 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro more or less has that same idea as does the UKMET because the whole thing shears out as it moves east Growing consensus on another dud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted Monday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:24 PM 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Basically it looks like Texas to Arkansas is going to see more snow out of this than NC unless something changes. That was always going to be the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted Monday at 03:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:27 PM 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Growing consensus on another dud The shearing out is a given. The new ICON phases in NM/TX then shears out later. We have to hope for the first closed low to shear out without phasing with the next digging short wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 03:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:29 PM 12Z Icon snow: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:30 PM Weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Monday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:33 PM Figures mid Atlantic gets a monster and the SE get's a sheared out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Monday at 03:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:38 PM Figures mid Atlantic gets a monster and the SE get's a sheared out mess. As the pages turn. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted Monday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:40 PM This is exactly why @wncsnowand I are never optimistic. Three years in a row where every event finds a new way to fail here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted Monday at 03:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:41 PM Why does the system intensify like crazy once it gets off the coast. The 6z GFS has it deepening all the way to 954. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Monday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:42 PM Euro ensemble mean is about .25 average across NC for Fri/Sat. That is probably the low end in my opinion. This looks like a classic in-situ wedge storm where we start off as a burst of snow and then change to a mixed bag. It could obviously trend a bit stronger or weaker, but for now it looks likely for at least some decent/measurable wintery weather. Beggars cant be choosers after the last few years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Monday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:45 PM This is a solid setup for snow and ice in NC. Obviously not a major storm but solid. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:47 PM 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Euro ensemble mean is about .25 average across NC for Fri/Sat. That is probably the low end in my opinion. This looks like a classic in-situ wedge storm where we start off as a burst of snow and then change to a mixed bag. It could obviously trend a bit stronger or weaker, but for now it looks likely for at least some decent/measurable wintery weather. Beggars cant be choosers after the last few years. I agree, and also the upside could come from the backside if the storm bombs out off the coast, as the GFS hints at. I think we want to risk mixing with a stronger storm at this point, because we will run into surface temp issues with a sheared system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:52 PM This will definitely be a true test for the AI model.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:55 PM This GFS run looks more like 18z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:57 PM This is going to be an intriguing run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:57 PM GFS didn't leave as much energy behind... Will be better than 6z. Let's see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:58 PM Yeah, looks like it is holding together better on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:58 PM Snow breaking out in GA at hr 96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:59 PM HP parked exactly where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:00 PM This is about to make a lot of people happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:00 PM Just now, BooneWX said: HP parked exactly where we want it Much better thermals for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:01 PM Still a sheered out mess but an improvement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:03 PM ICE Storm per 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 04:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:05 PM Snow to ice to rain here on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 04:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:05 PM 12Z GFS 24 hour snow: significant increase over recent runs plus significant IP/ZR some areas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:06 PM Anybody got the sleet totals map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:07 PM And yes, for anyone wondering, it bombs as it pulls away and gives the goods to the MA and new england 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:07 PM 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Anybody got the sleet totals map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:08 PM Wipes NYC off the Map. Just can't seem to get this thing as a significant storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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