Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:16 PM 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Those were ugly runs no doubt, but it’s all noise at this point. I can’t recall a time tracking weather where I’ve seen individual pieces to a storm oscillate a thousand miles on the exact same model just 6 hrs between runs and proceed to wash, rinse and repeat every single run. We are nowhere close to the final solution - hell, we don’t even had an agreement within model suites. This is going to be a marathon, drink your Gatorade and eat you wheaties. I would think the storm laying down snow in VA today would help us out with the temps for this weekend's storm. Maybe the models will trend colder once today's storm is cleared out. I just don't like that we have seen this movie before, where the models show something 10 days out and once we get inside 7 days it starts to turn to rain. I wish it were the reverse and it was rain 10 days out and then turned to snow inside 7 days, but it rarely seems to work that way. But the last GFS run was better than the previous one with the snow amounts, so there's still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Monday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:27 PM For anyone curious about RDU's snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 01:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:38 PM 10 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: For anyone curious about RDU's snowfall It is broken 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:44 PM Comparing the Euro this morning to the GFS 36 hours ago, totally different look at H5. We need the trough to tilt more neutral, which is why the system is so weak / sheared on the Euro (positively tilted trough = weak system) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Monday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:44 PM 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: It is broken this one should work 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 01:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:46 PM Euro AI looks good at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Monday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:51 PM 12Z NAM is running! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 01:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:57 PM Euro AI is now on run #6 of showing the near same result. Would be a nice storm for many. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Monday at 01:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:57 PM Winter weather advisory for Durham! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Monday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:58 PM 1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said: Winter weather advisory for Durham! For ice. YUK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:59 PM 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Euro AI is now on run #6 of showing the near same result. Would be a nice storm for many. The AI version tilts neutral just in time, while OP Euro stays positive. I am guessing it is related to the Baja energy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Monday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:17 PM NAM coming in more amped with system number 2! Dunno what that means down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:18 PM 19 minutes ago, suzook said: For ice. YUK. and it is already probably above freezing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:28 PM Overall trends not good but fwiw 6Z EPS mean is similar to 0Z and significantly more than Euro op (just like 0Z was): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:35 PM 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Yep they got half the forecast in some spots. They upped the forecast right before it started. Pretty giant busy up there but I’d take any of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:39 PM 52 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: this one should work This seems off because we had more in 2018 (8” if I recall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Monday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:42 PM 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This seems off because we had more in 2018 (8” if I recall) https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/raleigh/most-yearly-snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Monday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:43 PM NAM trending more amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:43 PM NAM looked juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:45 PM 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Yep they got half the forecast in some spots. Regardless, they’ve already received a major snow of ~5-8”. I can’t imagine complaining about that and they seem quite content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:46 PM 10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: They upped the forecast right before it started. Pretty giant busy up there but I’d take any of it At this point an hour of snow-covered grass will do it for me. I have significantly lowered my standards just like on Tinder. 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:47 PM Just now, eyewall said: At this point an hour of snow-covered grass will do it for me. I have significantly lowered my standards just like on Tinder. Something tells me next winter is our chance 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:51 PM 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: NAM looked juicy. Biggest thing I gathered from that run is the HP position. Would be really nice to have a 1031 over the Ohio Valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted Monday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:06 PM It is looking more likely that we will get to test the Dallas >>>> RDU hypothesis. The weenies in TX are saying that we are setting up for a big one Thursday & Friday. Will report back later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted Monday at 03:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:07 PM ^^ current ^^ yesterday it's an impressive pattern, you can really see it !! We may end up with a seasonal entire month, but maybe more than just one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 03:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:11 PM ICON at 84 looks like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 03:16 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:16 PM The ICON looks moisture starved too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:18 PM ICON looks good at 90 and then at 102 it starts to get strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 03:19 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:19 PM Basically it looks like Texas to Arkansas is going to see more snow out of this than NC unless something changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:19 PM Just now, Brick Tamland said: ICON looks good at 90 and then at 102 it starts to get strung out. Trough orientation looks better than the prior run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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