Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[btownheel]

Crazy ice models almost never verify. ZR tends to be a bit self limiting by nature.


.

[lilj4425]

Just now, suzook said:

Lol, everyone was jumping off the cliff and hour ago, now we got the tip back in.

Don’t worry. Next GFS model run will show 70 and sunny for the same timeframe. 

[BooneWX]

13 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Don’t worry. Next GFS model run will show 70 and sunny for the same timeframe. 

It’s the ride we’re all addicted to and enjoy. And enjoy it! We’ve had nothing worth tracking for years.

[wncsnow]

@jburns can we get this pinned? Thank you 

[BornAgain13]

Is it possible to for the first system that it would trend colder with the HP and produce more ICE?

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is it possible to for the first system that it would trend colder with the HP and produce more ICE?

Seems more likely it will continue to trend north at this point. 

[NorthHillsWx]

EURO will make the MA forum happy

[NorthHillsWx]

Dr No predictably says “no”

[wncsnow]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Dr No predictably says “no”

Yep they are night and day. Euro has no southern stream energy. Just a clipper. 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Yep they are night and day. Euro has no southern stream energy. Just a clipper. 

Tries to pop a low in the Gulf but the northern stream energy squashes it 

[olafminesaw]

[Met1985]

Lol the Euro takes the low off the Baja coast then it travels out to sea more in the Pacific.  I call bullshit. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, Met1985 said:

Lol the Euro takes the low off the Baja coast then it travels out to sea more in the Pacific.  I call bullshit. 

Yeah I have never seen that..

[Met1985]

Goes from this to this. The dang thing travels against the southern jet!

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[NorthHillsWx]

Wonky or not we just need it to show the storm soon. Depressing watching these fantasy storms with no EURO support

[SnowDawg]

Honestly the GEFS wasn't all that enthused either, at least in comparison to the OP. Still looks very suppressed. But still showing multiple threats 9-15 so on to the next run I guess.

[wncsnow]

I think the period between the 11th and 16th could be our best shot as the cold relaxes. 

[NC_hailstorm]

Euro has to kick that Baja low a little further east or the shortwave dropping down has to tick west at day 8/9.Either might work but if you get both well....woof. 

[BooneWX]

A proper snowpack right where we need to transport the Polar Express.


.

[suzook]

To be honest, was anyone really expecting much from the 1st wave??? It's the 2nd one we need to be holding hope for.

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

A proper snowpack right where we need to transport the Polar Express.


.

 

[BooneWX]

EPS shows the signal. A bit of suppression but the average output is a southern slider but perhaps a full on Miller A. I can see it trending northwest a bit with time but I sort of feel like the “up the east coast” threat is waning a bit for New England weenies. 

[BooneWX]

Just now, suzook said:

To be honest, was anyone really expecting much from the 1st wave??? It's the 2nd one we need to be holding hope for.

 

No, nobody was. Not a single expert has been bullish on that timeframe for us, just us weenies. Making that work was going to be hard and would really sacrifice the pattern to get more involved anyways. This storm lays out the plates, silverware and glasses - just not the food. 

[GaWx]

 This is kind of an odd setup and would actually be an extremely close call on/near the coast on the 12Z Euro if it were to somehow play out closely to this:

850 mb temps several degrees <0C during start of precip and even the coast never gets close to the 0C line:

1000-500 mb thicknesses at start of precip well below the common 546 dm needed to support snow in SE as these are in the mid to high 530s and they actually drop from this point:

 

Surface dewpoints well below 32 just in advance:

 

But surface flow is then a warm SW flow that warms low levels up rapidly just in time:

 

Clipper surface low coming down allows SW flow ahead of it on backside of Arctic high moving offshore, a pretty unusual setup with a low also in the Gulf:

 

The qpf ends up too light (<0.15”) to allow the easily cold enough levels between 850 and 500 to have sunk enough to counteract the warming surface SW flow:

[KChuck]

57 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think the period between the 11th and 16th could be our best shot as the cold relaxes. 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro ensemble mean snow: pretty similar to GEFS

 

Here was 12Z GEFS:

[EarlGrey]

[StantonParkHoya]

I mean the Euro does have a 1001 SLP off the SE coast.. it’s a signal at least and it has a bias of holding energy in the SW back too long. When it does that, I believe the guidance is to consult handling by the UKMET.

Who has that old guide on model biases and checks?

[BooneWX]

.

[strongwxnc]

.

Just to have this is super nice! Let’s roll


.

[LithiaWx]

all or nothing.....well dayum.