Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[franklin NCwx]

14 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like the storm for tonight and tomorrow is for Virginia north on the Euro.

 

Time to move to a beach town that averages 8" of snow per year yet gets 30-40" consistently 

[SnowDawg]

Name of the game on both ensembles at 12z was to lower QPF on the northern side and have more dry sheared out members. Long ways to go still, and still many different scenarios on the table. The various pieces of our system will move on shore over the next few days, so should start to get some better sampling.

[Brick Tamland]

Euro has a nice one for the 17th.

[strongwxnc]

Euro has a nice one for the 17th.

More to track!


.

[StantonParkHoya]

There are a couple blockbuster ensemble members in there. Wouldn’t be surprised to see another big one on an OP at some point in the next 24 hours. 

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Name of the game on both ensembles at 12z was to lower QPF on the northern side and have more dry sheared out members. Long ways to go still, and still many different scenarios on the table. The various pieces of our system will move on shore over the next few days, so should start to get some better sampling.

 This illustrates well that the 12Z GFS is somewhat of a NW outlier vs the 12Z GEFS regarding the low track, which the op has inland from Destin to just NW of Savannah to Charleston. This image suggests a 3:1 ratio of the members SE of the operational vs near to it and the mean low SLP ~150 miles to the SE:

[wxdawg10]

we really only have a 1 month window of prime climo to score on anything good. Outside of that, chances drop significantly. 4 weeks. Depressing when you think of it like that. 

Any good runs outside of a week is basically noise to me now.  i too was once a bright eyed weenie who lived and died by every model run. Always temper your excitement when you live south of VA. or you will be close to tears when the inevitable february torch hits

 

[Brick Tamland]

37 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

we really only have a 1 month window of prime climo to score on anything good. Outside of that, chances drop significantly. 4 weeks. Depressing when you think of it like that. 

Any good runs outside of a week is basically noise to me now.  i too was once a bright eyed weenie who lived and died by every model run. Always temper your excitement when you live south of VA. or you will be close to tears when the inevitable february torch hits

 

True. I just like seeing the possibility on the models for a change. It does look like there is a better chance this month than we have had the past two years to get some snow in my backyard.

[Upstate Tiger]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

True. I just like seeing the possibility on the models for a change. It does look like there is a better chance this month than we have had the past two years to get some snow in my backyard.

It would be nice to see snow in my backyard.  What would really be awesome is to see snow in my back and front yards!  One can only dream. 

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, Upstate Tiger said:

It would be nice to see snow in my backyard.  What would really be awesome is to see snow in my back and front yards!  One can only dream. 

Now that would be a sharp cutoff.

[wncsnow]

How did the EPS look?

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Now that would be a sharp cutoff.

Happens all the time in March!

[dsaur]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z Icon: low from FL panhandle to Savannah

What’s not shown here is that Atlanta and other areas appear to get significant amount of sleet. ATL temps near freezing entire event. @dsaurthis appears to be giving you 0.4” of qpf in form of sleet.
Snow: notable increase some areas

0Z had this:

This is so typical in cases that look like this. With a surge across the middle.  Mostly sleet and zr, with enough snow to make it perfect.  Just amounts are typically low, but if this verifies that's not low on sleet.  That's great!  Only it's still way too early to get excited.  When it's showing this Wed night and Thurs,  I'll start to think it might happen.  Such is the nature of backyard totals this far out.  Today it's a foot, tomorrow an inch, then.....?

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

How did the EPS look?

2.2” for Asheville

[Upstate Tiger]

GSP with as much confidence as the rest of us. 
 

 Will continue to
monitor. But, this is where the guidance starts to turn as there is
a signal for a potential system developing for the end of the week
into the weekend. Long range guidance has flip flopped on the end of
the period, earlier indicating a potential for another area of low
pressure forming off to the west and lifting toward the Carolinas.
Latest runs put the low further south and originating in the Gulf
and coming up the east coast from FL. At this time, it`s too far out
to say what type of weather this system could bring, but wintry p-
types is not out of the question. High pressure and dry conditions
return after this potential system to round out next weekend.

[Brick Tamland]

Getting heavy sleet now.

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian has a mix for northern NC tomorrow.

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian suppressed for next week.

[Brick Tamland]

Nothing on the Canadian after next weekend.

[GaWx]

12Z JMA has no precip in the SE US Jan 8-11.

[Brick Tamland]

Freezing rain totals from the NAM. 

[SnowDawg]

If there's a time frame to trend towards dry and suppression I'll take it now as opposed to later. With how often things tend to windshield wiper on the models, plenty of time to trend one way for a few runs and then back the other way. 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS ensemble mean for next weekend looks nice.

[BornAgain13]

Got a nice surprise Heavy Snow today. Right at about 1 1/2" so far

 

[Brick Tamland]

Euro ensemble mean for next weekend.

[lilj4425]

I don’t even know which system or date we’re looking at anymore. These posts are all over the place. 

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I don’t even know which system or date we’re looking at anymore. These posts are all over the place. 

I don't know the criteria for making a storm thread. Might have been good to have one for today and tomorrow's system and the potential one next weekend since it is inside 7 days.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro AI 24 hour qpf for Jan 10-11:

ATL: 0.40”, mostly as IP and ZR; Asheville to RDU all snow (850s <0C) ~4-5” (higher ratios Asheville)

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro AI 24 hour qpf:

ATL: 0.40”, mostly as IP and ZR; Asheville to RDU all snow (850s <0C) ~4-5” (higher ratios Asheville)

Regular Euro and GFS have it, too. Looks like a legit threat since we're inside 7 days.