StantonParkHoya Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM One good thing re: temps will be snow cover all the way down to VA/NC border ahead 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM 12z ICON a good hit for northern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Canadian is slower with the system which leads to a messy mix across most of the area 12Z CMC ZR: Sleet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Sunday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:43 PM Canadian is a full day later than the consensus of models. I have to toss it for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted Sunday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:44 PM 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z CMC ZR: Sleet: Lights out in W KY…oof. Anyone want to start a new thread for this particular 5/6 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM 32 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like lots of mixing for Wake County, NC. Very sharp cutoff with the snow amounts. Glad I am in the very northern part of the county. I’m thinking only the mountains are going to see snow out of this. Too many things can and will go wrong outside of that area. Everything from lack of qpf to soil temps to WAA to one too many cows farting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM I'd bet as long as the setup continues to be modeled as is, low level cold will improve as we get closer. There is a CAD signature as our storm is moving in, albeit light. Even in normal circumstances these are usually underestimated by the global models, and this time the damming high will be sitting right on top of fresh snow pack in the mid-atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I'd bet as long as the setup continues to be modeled as is, low level cold will improve as we get closer. There is a CAD signature as our storm is moving in, albeit light. Even in normal circumstances these are usually underestimated by the global models, and this time the damming high will be sitting right on top of fresh snow pack in the mid-atlantic. If so, that would probably increase sleet and freezing rain since colder at lower levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Models still fluctuating, 12Z GFS utterly different from 06Z with no phase. When you have these wild swings it means we are still in who knows land. I hope once the short wave comes in from the Pacific we will have more clarity, for now just wait and see. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Sunday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:10 PM GEFS with a warning shot that suppressed and largely dry is very much still on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM 8 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: GEFS with a warning shot that suppressed and largely dry is very much still on the table. The mean looks pretty solid imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM 49 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Cold air will be an issue. People have mentioned that the models actually have a cold bias. Yikes. Temps are always an issue for Wake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM Snow has changed over to sleet and freezing rain east side of Elk Knob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM WRAL is saying north of Raleigh could see a snow and sleet mix Monday night. As far as next week goes it's stil too early to know anything for sure yet. We don't even really know what's going to happen tonight and Monday where I am. Models can show potential but here it seems we're always on the line and we don't know what happens until it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM Still no clear answer but I would take the 12z run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM 12Z UKMET: ATL major snow (3.5-4”) and AHN 3”; 850s below 0C with 0.4” qpf; clown map algos causing too much snowfall to show up on southern end (like around Macon) and so I won’t post it but for ATL it looks legit @Cheeznado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:38 PM 12Z Euro: precip types: ignore N of NC/VA border to get the 1/10-11 storm by itself 24 hour qpf: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Euro was a suppressed nothing burger for Wnc... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM 12Z Euro Snow (24 hour): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET: ATL major snow (3.5-4”) and AHN 3”; 850s below 0C with 0.4” qpf; clown map algos causing too much snowfall to show up on southern end (like around Macon) and so I won’t post it but for ATL it looks legit @Cheeznado Do you have other areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Sunday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:45 PM 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Do you have other areas? How are you guys getting Euro so fast? I am only through 102. Looks ok so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM Is it time to break out the 11th event and the 14th event? Seems there might be a tad of confusion in here regarding the two different events. I keep seeing models posted for both. Sure looking like the second event has a bit more chances for accumulations here around ATL atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 05:47 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:47 PM The Ohio valley low/ energy is screwing up moisture transport from the gulf and thermals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:48 PM 6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Do you have other areas? 12Z UKMET: Due to little qpf (under 0.10”), RDU doesn’t get much (0.6” snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:57 PM 52 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: GEFS with a warning shot that suppressed and largely dry is very much still on the table. Indeed, the 12Z GEFS snow dropped for more northern areas but increased notably for an area to the south stretching from S of Augusta/Columbia to E NC: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Sunday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:57 PM 10 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said: Is it time to break out the 11th event and the 14th event? Seems there might be a tad of confusion in here regarding the two different events. I keep seeing models posted for both. Sure looking like the second event has a bit more chances for accumulations here around ATL atm. There is no 14th event on either the GFS or CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Sunday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:03 PM 15 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said: Is it time to break out the 11th event and the 14th event? Seems there might be a tad of confusion in here regarding the two different events. I keep seeing models posted for both. Sure looking like the second event has a bit more chances for accumulations here around ATL atm. I agree for ATL metro there may be a better shot of snow next week if the system ejects in time. That said, the 12Z ECMWF solution might be a snowier event for ATL than the model depicts if it unfolded as shown as far as track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted Sunday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:16 PM 17 minutes ago, GaWx said: Indeed, the 12Z GEFS snow dropped for more northern areas but increased notably for an area to the south stretching from S of Augusta/Columbia to E NC: That would be a good weekend to go skiing at Winterplace or Wintergreen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Sunday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:19 PM Looks like the storm for tonight and tomorrow is for Virginia north on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Sunday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:23 PM I'll gladly take this after going on 3 years with no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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