Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[Tacoma]

Yep just last week the cold wasn't an issue but now the cold seems to have backed off just enough to have mixing issues for the 10, 11, 12 storm

[StantonParkHoya]

Intriguing that many GFS solutions actually go south and give snow to Columbia-Wilmington 

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Yep just last week the cold wasn't an issue but now the cold seems to have backed off just enough to have mixing issues for the 10, 11, 12 storm

Models generally have had a cold bias for a good number of years, unfortunately. All levels are affected including surface and 500 mb. That’s why there’s often (though not always of course) a NW trend in the track of storms as you get closer. They often start off in the modeling as southern sliders and become inland runners as you get closer. These cases were destined to be inland runners from the start but the models weren’t smart enough to know far in advance.
 Hopefully we’re now close enough so that there won’t be more NW trending for this one.

 In Atlanta, the coldest days’ lows were projected to be well down into the teens awhile back. Now they’ve warmed there ~10 degrees. Still a solidly cold period with lows well down into the 20s (MB normal) and cold enough for wintry but not nearly as cold as earlier projected meaning less room to play with.

[GaWx]

12Z Icon: low from FL panhandle to Savannah

What’s not shown here is that Atlanta and other areas appear to get significant amount of sleet. ATL temps near freezing entire event. @dsaurthis appears to be giving you 0.4” of qpf in form of sleet.
Snow: notable increase some areas

0Z had this:

[wncsnow]

GFS looks like it might be more south this run but it's close to 6Z 

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS looks like it might be more south this run but it's close to 6Z 

Does look a smidge south at 117

[wncsnow]

This might be a good run for 85 north

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, wncsnow said:

This might be a good run for 85 north

Can we change that to 40* north

[burgertime]

12z is def further south and weaker than the 6z run. 

 

 

[wncsnow]

It's a bit weaker though with less precip through 123

[burgertime]

NC folks are praying for this solution 

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

It takes its sweet time and starts to warm the mid levels 

[BooneWX]

My goodness it is thumping at hr 138

[burgertime]

Here is the snow map out to 141 

[wncsnow]

85 North gets hammered in WNC

[wncsnow]

Best run yet 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

85 North gets hammered in WNC

Much further east than 85

[wncsnow]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Much further east than 85

Slightly but more mixing south of 85

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Slightly but more mixing south of 85

We’re getting in the details now but 85 runs to Petersburg Va. I see 6+ inches all the way to Edenton, NC on the coast.

[GaWx]

12Z GFS ZR:

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We’re getting in the details now but 85 runs to Petersburg Va. I see 6+ inches all the way to Edenton, NC on the coast.

Im talking about SC and NC but ok

[StantonParkHoya]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Im talking about SC and NC but ok

I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. 85 in NC cuts north from Durham but there are big snows much further east from that in NC. It’s not an accurate marker in this case.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like lots of mixing for Wake County, NC. Very sharp cutoff with the snow amounts. Glad I am in the very northern part of the county.

[wncsnow]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. 85 in NC cuts north from Durham but there are big snows much further east from that in NC. It’s not an accurate marker in this case.

I know where 85 goes because I used to have to drive it all the time.. not many posters here live in that area. 

 

85 is a good marker for snow accumulation for the majority of NC and SC on the GFS. Much like during a typical winter storm. 

 

  

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like lots of mixing for Wake County, NC. Very sharp cutoff with the snow amounts. Glad I am in the very northern part of the county.

Cold air will be an issue. People have mentioned that the models actually have a cold bias. Yikes.

[BooneWX]

Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Cold air will be an issue. People have mentioned that the models actually have a cold bias. Yikes.

The GFS is terrible at day 5/6 with handling low level cold

[wncsnow]

Canadian is slower with the system which leads to a messy mix across most of the area 

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Canadian model is much warmer than the previous run, out to hour 162. Snow is almost non-existent on the map for the south/SE.