WiseWeather Posted Sunday at 11:03 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:03 AM Yes, it certainly is. And yet fantasy storms is all we have.Wishful thinking…. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 12:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:15 PM 6z GFS was amped but the GEFS was not .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted Sunday at 12:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:48 PM 1 hour ago, CentralNC said: Yes, it certainly is. And yet fantasy storms is all we have. Yep, and this is the new norm for much of the southeast. So, look ahead a week and a half, it is all we will have. The models are starting to look the same way they did for the storm today for the 10th/11th system. Kicking the can to fab Feb. This storm on Friday simply doesn't have enough cold air and the models are showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Sunday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:59 PM 1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Yep, and this is the new norm for much of the southeast. So, look ahead a week and a half, it is all we will have. The models are starting to look the same way they did for the storm today for the 10th/11th system. Kicking the can to fab Feb. This storm on Friday simply doesn't have enough cold air and the models are showing that. What’s wild is looking back at the cross polar flow and modeled cold from last weeks modeling, and thinking cold air would not be the issue. Fast forward to now and reality is, cold air is always an issue. We went from a week straight of highs progged in low to mid 30s and lows in teens to just 40’s and lows in mid 20s, not that cold. Just insane miss by models especially given the consensus we had of possibly record level cold 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:12 PM What was not mentioned yet is the 6z GFS , taken verbatim, is a crippling ICE storm for the CAD regions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Sunday at 01:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:30 PM Confused about the negativity. The storm is still there, and there is cold too. Not record breaking, but we have 2 ingredients for snow. Yes, there will be some members here disappointed, but I think a decent amount will be happy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted Sunday at 01:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:32 PM Just now, suzook said: Confused about the negativity. The storm is still there, and there is cold too. Not record breaking, but we have 2 ingredients for snow. Yes, there will be some members here disappointed, but I think a decent amount will be happy. If the majority of members live in Northern Virginia then I agree. Maybe some hope for the mountains. However, mixing issues even in western NC is usually not a good sign for much of the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Sunday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:37 PM 3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: If the majority of members live in Northern Virginia then I agree. Maybe some hope for the mountains. However, mixing issues even in western NC is usually not a good sign for much of the southeast. My inground pool dig starts tomorrow. ITS GONNA snow in Atlanta this week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Sunday at 01:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:39 PM The one on the 17th will verify because I have to leave town then. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Sunday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:44 PM 14 minutes ago, suzook said: Confused about the negativity. The storm is still there, and there is cold too. Not record breaking, but we have 2 ingredients for snow. Yes, there will be some members here disappointed, but I think a decent amount will be happy. To prove your point, the 6 z Euro is missed the phase entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted Sunday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:51 PM 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: To prove your point, the 6 z Euro is missed the phase entirely Which kind of proves the point, either the system will have plenty of moisture with no cold (phase) or it will lack moisture but be somewhat cold. There is no true sweet spot to be found, as far as the models see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Sunday at 01:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:52 PM The 6z GFS shows more of a Miller B with the storm. The first low weakens in Ohio and the eastern low takes over and rolls right through central NC (another move inland). This new low then bombs out as an inland runner through NJ/NYC before cutting ENE south of the Maritimes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM The only way we can win with a phase is if it happens very late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM Interestingly, it’s ensembles don’t support a Miller B at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Sunday at 01:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:57 PM I will start throwing in the towel if need be, after tonight's/tomorrows wave moves through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:58 PM Just now, suzook said: I will start throwing in the towel if need be, after tonight's/tomorrow’s wave moves through. We are in the best position as of 9 am that we’ve been at any point tracking this system 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Sunday at 02:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:02 PM 24 minutes ago, suzook said: My inground pool dig starts tomorrow. ITS GONNA snow in Atlanta this week! I'm not sure ATL sees snow out of this even if the low takes a 06Z Euro track, there just is not enough cold air in place really. The higher risk here is something slower and stronger forms allowing the high to slide over into NC more and they see a sleet/freezing rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Sunday at 02:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:06 PM Guess I’m missing something. I thought the overnight model runs were pretty good. Storm seems likely with no suppression. Yes it could be north and bomb out over the mid Atlantic like the 06z is showing but we have a likely storm and some cold around. Should be an interesting few days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Sunday at 02:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:07 PM 15 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Which kind of proves the point, either the system will have plenty of moisture with no cold (phase) or it will lack moisture but be somewhat cold. There is no true sweet spot to be found, as far as the models see it. I mean, the models last night all supported a happy medium to some degree, aside from the Euro. Not a blockbuster storm, but 2-6" across the region is certainly still on the table, and the model average supports that idea for now. Certainly we can fail on one side or the other,but last night's runs were solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Sunday at 02:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:09 PM GEFS ensemble panels look atrocious but EPS is mildly better for next weekends system. I do not like the lack of a HP over NE with the storm. Cold air especially at ML will be easily scoured out. And the antecedent airmass has modified by 10-15 degrees over the last 5-6 days of model runs. Starting with a questionable airmass and relying on a weak slider seems to be the only way we snow unless models drop the GL low or keep a HP locked in a somewhat favorable location. Flow is all southerly ahead of this system so that’s why you’re seeing some runs with a favorable track and still seeing mix issues. I just don’t like this look at all without major changes upstairs and over the lakes and New England 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:10 PM 4 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Guess I’m missing something. I thought the overnight model runs were pretty good. Storm seems likely with no suppression. Yes it could be north and bomb out over the mid Atlantic like the 06z is showing but we have a likely storm and some cold around. Should be an interesting few days. They were good, as were the ensembles, despite the mood in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted Sunday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:11 PM Most of our average winter storms over the last 50 years here in the triad would look very similar to this 5-7 days out. We had nothing like this to follow last year at all. Sometimes looks like this work out and sometimes they don’t. It’s hard not to like where we’re at. We have a decent shot at something good. TW 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Sunday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:42 PM 31 minutes ago, BooneWX said: They were good, as were the ensembles, despite the mood in here. Everyone is showing trauma responses to the last several winters I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted Sunday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:43 PM Funny thing always happens. When the SE sees a winter threat I usually do as well on this side of the globe. We've also suffered a snow drought so I feel your pain (though we got snow last night). At this point I think all we can hope for is a good setup. It looks to me like a descent setup. Lots of energy flying around a cold air source and moisture on tap. Curious to see how the 12z models look! 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted Sunday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:56 PM 12 minutes ago, burgertime said: Funny thing always happens. When the SE sees a winter threat I usually do as well on this side of the globe. We've also suffered a snow drought so I feel your pain (though we got snow last week). At this point I think all we can hope for is a good setup. It looks to me like a descent setup. Lots of energy flying around a cold air source and moisture on tap. Curious to see how the 12z models look! A Burgersighting !! Oh, it's on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted Sunday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:56 PM Still unlikely that we get a big snow storm here, but the chances for at least over .5 have increased as now the majority of the EPS and GEFS members show at least something. That is a change for the better. We have to root against a strong phase, a sheared out system is a lot better. I have a friend we can stay with up father north if it is a near miss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Sunday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:00 PM 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Still unlikely that we get a big snow storm here, but the chances for at least over .5 have increased as now the majority of the EPS and GEFS members show at least something. That is a change for the better. We have to root against a strong phase, a sheared out system is a lot better. I have a friend we can stay with up father north if it is a near miss here. I’m getting greedy. Haven’t had any snow in 3 years, so I can handle it now. I’m rooting for a phase that begins at the GA line and goes negative off CHS. All or nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Sunday at 03:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:07 PM 9 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Still unlikely that we get a big snow storm here, but the chances for at least over .5 have increased as now the majority of the EPS and GEFS members show at least something. That is a change for the better. We have to root against a strong phase, a sheared out system is a lot better. I have a friend we can stay with up father north if it is a near miss here. In our area, agree, doubtful its a big snow. 1 or 2 inches is very possible, and anyone in the Atlanta area would be thrilled with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Sunday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:09 PM I used to wish for 1 winter storm warning event a year but now I just want to see the grass covered. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:15 PM 11 minutes ago, suzook said: In our area, agree, doubtful its a big snow. 1 or 2 inches is very possible, and anyone in the Atlanta area would be thrilled with that. 6Z GEFS mean had an increase: Atlanta area 1-2.5” Members: ~1/2 give ATL 1”+ (that would be biggest snow there in years); avg annual is ~2”; median annual is lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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