GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: If this thing is gonna be amped up, it's all gonna come down to how the 50/50 trends. Confluence will be our friend here both on track and thermals. Without it we need to go back to the weak overunning looks from yesterday afternoon. There are exceptions (like 3/1/09 which was mainly from a bowling ball upper low and 3/93) and variations but I’ll normally want a weak Gulf low passing ~ENE offshore the N Gulf coast and then going over the general vicinity of the north-central FL peninsula out into the Atlantic for the best shot at a major snow or sleet ATL-AHN corridor among other areas per history. Of course there has to be cold enough air to the north. Sometimes it can go from the Gulf to over FL panhandle to SE GA and work if the air is cold enough. The following map is the mean SLP map for winter storms that includes 2/12/14, 1/9/11, 2/12/10, 1/2/02, 1/18/92, 1/7/88, 1/22/87, 3/24/83, 1/12/82, 3/2/80, 2/18/79, 1/9/62, 3/11/60, and 2/26/52: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro AI is a major hit across the south, especially Tenn, NC and the upstate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, eyewall said: Sleet is typically around a 4:1 ratio. Most I have seen in one event is around 3 inches back on Long Island in the 90's ATL had 4.2” of nearly pure sleet on both 2/17-18/79 and 1/7/88. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 41 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Euro AI is a major hit across the south, especially Tenn, NC and the upstate For ATL (city itself) as depicted it is closer to mainly sleet or rain with 850s of +1C: Surface 34F, so not ZR as depicted: qpf: AI continues with its unusual warm sfc wind flow..here it’s from SE, which disagrees with just about all other models (maybe it being AI is a handicap) and thus I think it won’t verify this way: Sfc: doesn’t look right. By the way, ATL has no major winter storm on record with mainly SE winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We’ve got to get this SLP down in the big bend area off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 43 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Euro AI is a major hit across the south, especially Tenn, NC and the upstate Can you give more specifics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I think I have seen a tweet from some met in the last couple months saying that the Euro AI was bad with surface depictions, but was scoring well on large scale setups, but I can't remember now who it was. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18Z Icon 120 is ~100 miles S of 12Z 126. Things like this can end up making a big difference down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: WRAL is talking about a wintery mix Sunday night, too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18Z GFS not looking encouraging sorry to say based on 135. Tracking too far NW for great setup. let’s see how much wintry there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Even more amped and north and warm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Phasing in new mexico. This will be a congrats Wisconsin soon 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Still wintry precip though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Good snow (couple of inches upstate SC to W NC) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, GaWx said: Still wintry precip though Today the earth is at its solar perihelion. So we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It’s raining at Snowshoe WV this run if that adds some color 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Local forecast for the Triad did a complete 180° flip as well. Went from snow/ice to all rain, no transition. Couple more days of model runs and this casserole will be fully baked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Love how we go from pipe busting cold on the models to 40’s followed by rainstorms during the advertised period 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18Z GEFS: significant increase many areas, especially N GA (keep in mind this excludes ZR and any sleet Tony and others might get): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Love how we go from pipe busting cold on the models to 40’s followed by rainstorms during the advertised period E US cold bias of most models strikes again. Hoping they won’t warm even further the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This storm up north trended south the last couple days after trending north before, maybe we can get the same luck. Also is showing a bit of CAD which one can hope is under-modeled at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, GaWx said: ATL had 4.2” of nearly pure sleet on both 2/17-18/79 and 1/7/88. Best storms ever, and several good sleet storms down here too. Just got to be in the band that runs thru n central Ga. Had some bad zr storms though, too. Always on the edge down here when one of these comes across. It's going to get cold according to my point cast, and now with sn, zr and rain. And a mix is pretty standard for these...unless it busts due to the devil line I 20 barrier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: It’s a springtime rainstorm rest of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 To my eye, the 18z Euro coming in much less amped than the GFS in the gulf. Looks like it might not want to merge that Great Lakes Low like the GFS if it continued past 144hrs, too. HP in Mid Atlantic is a few ticks higher as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Looking at the individual GEfS members. Few - none agree with the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Looking at the individual GEfS members. Few - none agree with the OP. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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