Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah another weird solution.  On to the next model run lol.

Ends up being a noreaster with more snow for you on the backside 

[StantonParkHoya]

Not really buying this solution. If anything, with the confluence to the NE, SLP should have popped near CHS imo rather than riding up into GA

[wncsnow]

Verbatim we get an inch or 2 of snow then an inch of sleet then .30 ZR. Yuck. 

[eyewall]

The low is another tick farther north than the 6z GFS. This trend usually doesn't reverse. There is no cold air feed and it is turning into an inside runner.

[wncsnow]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Verbatim we get an inch or 2 of snow then an inch of sleet then .30 ZR. Yuck. 

I would still take it though 

[wncsnow]

New York gets absolutely crushed this run. Massive noreaster

[BooneWX]

Our 50/50 low looked better this run but we can’t have it trending east. Re: tomorrow’s storm clears up a lot, good or bad. 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS is a mess. Still no consistency. Goes from 9 inches here with the overnight run to this.

[wncsnow]

Canadian coming in with a system 

[BooneWX]

Also - to the where is the cold question:

 

Our TPV lobe gets punched back home by guess what? The Pacific. 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Also - to the where is the cold question:

 

Our TPV lobe gets punched back home by guess what? The Pacific. 

We shouldn’t need a piece of polar vortex to snow on the damn 10th day of January. When I was a kid, it would snow on accident, by happenstance, by chance.. without even knowing it did — end rant

 

 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We shouldn’t need a piece of polar vortex to snow on the damn 10th day of January. When I was a kid, it would snow on accident, by happenstance, by chance.. without even knowing it did — end rant

 

 

I don’t disagree, I was just addressing the larger pattern question at hand. We can’t get snow because a ridge is pumping into the lakes ahead of our storm and finding a high pressure anywhere between Iowa and New England is like the Charlotte Horners finding the playoffs.

[BooneWX]

The Canadian is one of the best looks in days. A southern slider with weak HP over the Ohio Valley.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but:

Brad Panovich:  My rule of not reading too much into specific single deterministic snowfall map models runs goes both ways; just because there isn't snow on the map doesn't mean the pattern is not still there. This pattern hasn't really changed much, just the specifics, which always bounce around in the long range; the pattern remains the same! So stay tuned. A snowfall map 7+ days out or no snow map isn't going to tell you anything about the pattern. #ncwx #scwx #cltwx #snOMG

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian slides south. Another solution.

[BooneWX]

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but:

Brad Panovich:  My rule of not reading too much into specific single deterministic snowfall map models runs goes both ways; just because there isn't snow on the map doesn't mean the pattern is not still there. This pattern hasn't really changed much, just the specifics, which always bounce around in the long range; the pattern remains the same! So stay tuned. A snowfall map 7+ days out or no snow map isn't going to tell you anything about the pattern. #ncwx #scwx #cltwx #snOMG

I’ve loved how crazy optimistic he’s been the past few days when he’s usually one of the first Mets raining on the weenie parade. It does make me feel positive.

[Brick Tamland]

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Canadian slides south. Another solution.

Probably our near-best outcome

[wncsnow]

Just for laughs.. the GFS has a CAD system in the long long range 

[wncsnow]

UK still doesn't have a storm 

[NorthHillsWx]

Cold-ish rain incoming

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS: members 5, 7, 8, 10, 13, 22, 27 (7 of 30) have a further SE tracking low than GFS:

 

5-8, 10, 22, 25, 27 have notable snow outside mtns, with 6 of these 8 having a further SE low track than GFS (your best bet):

 

Mean snow through 1/11:

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Really bad. I’m officially out.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro low track way too far NW for big SE snowstorm. Need further SE track than GFS like on 7 of 30 GEFS members

[GaWx]

12Z Euro has some ZR:

 

snow:

[strongwxnc]

12Z Euro has some ZR:

 
snow:

I would gladly take that strip of snow in the foothills


.

[wncsnow]

Euro ain't bad here. Nice little storm

[eyewall]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro low track way too far NW for big SE snowstorm. Need further SE track than GFS like on 7 of 30 GEFS members

An inside runner like the GFS.

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

An inside runner like the GFS.

We need confluence over the NE. We keep getting these Miller A/B hybrids 

[wncsnow]

I think the energy over the TN valley needs to dig more and it could be a phased bomb