Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[olafminesaw]

High shifted West this run. Actually better confluence but it's not enough

[wncsnow]

The least ZR this run. Mostly cold rain except higher elevations near Blue Ridge. Virginia doesn't get that much snow either. 

[StantonParkHoya]

The north shifts always happen. Always. Which is why I don’t mind suppression showing for the 10/11th deal so much. 

[BooneWX]

On the bright side, this can help our energy for the 9th-11th. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Canadian is an absolutely crippling ice storm for the favored CAD regions

[SnowDawg]

As much as it was fun to think we could pull it off, the 6th storm was always supposed to be the stage setter in the step down process so I'm not going to fret too much about losing it. Should get at least two shots between the 9th and 15th, and in the past we'd be saying suppressed is right where we want them at this range. But we've lost a few storms to suppression during this drought so instead it just feels like it's set in stone already. 

[StantonParkHoya]

RDU folks should monitor the Dallas-Rule. If it’s snowing in the big D next Thursday, get your shovels ready.

[NorthHillsWx]

Might relocate my family to Shreveport to see some snow 

[yoda]

So 12z GFS 

[StantonParkHoya]

Big dog incoming??

[strongwxnc]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

RDU folks should monitor the Dallas-Rule. If it’s snowing in the big D next Thursday, get your shovels ready.

Been a minute but this has held true before. 

 

Stole this*

[NorthHillsWx]

My god. It’s beautiful. Slightly south. But beautiful 

[Cheeznado]

New GFS is bonkers! 

[NorthHillsWx]

Give me sitting on the northern edge of that snow band at this range all day knowing the trend that inevitably will come but I’ll take a 987 off Wilmington all day

[StantonParkHoya]

Print it. Take it now. End the runs.

[SnowDawg]

Can we lock that one in? Everybody should be happy with it. Crushing snow very far south and extreme high ratio powder in the mtns and foothills. We all need snow, so no use fighting over the bullseye lol

[Cheeznado]

It would be very ironic if there is a big dog after the Euro hyped people up a week ago and everyone trashed some for starting up the chatter online. Not saying I believe this certainly but getting more confident we we will at least see some accumulation her in north GA

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Can we lock that one in? Everybody should be happy with it. Crushing snow very far south and extreme high ratio powder in the mtns and foothills. We all need snow, so no use fighting over the bullseye lol

I'm just glad we got to see another fantasy run that shows potential. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I mean my god. Model run for the ages. That’s a blizzard under the deformation band too 

[NC_hailstorm]

The big dog is barking this morning.

[EarlGrey]

I haven’t cried this much since I got stood up at prom.

[BooneWX]

This is the potential the pattern has. First low sacrificed, beautiful 50/50 low ensues and we get a strike underneath. 

[BornAgain13]

Models today showing an ICE storm for the CAD favored areas... Major ICE Storm at that per CMC. Central to Northern VA still look to be a lock for Significant Snow... To see that Big dog come in further south for the next system is intriguing...

[KChuck]

17 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is the potential the pattern has. First low sacrificed, beautiful 50/50 low ensues and we get a strike underneath. 

 

 

[BooneWX]

Ratios for that setup would also be high for the upstate and western Carolinas. Probably more of a 4-6” event taken at face value 

[NorthHillsWx]

20 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is the potential the pattern has. First low sacrificed, beautiful 50/50 low ensues and we get a strike underneath. 

I will do whatever ritualistic sacrifice the snow gods demand for this forum to see the 12z GFS into fruition 

[tarheelwx]

45 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Canadian is an absolutely crippling ice storm for the favored CAD regions

I like your enthusiasm.  Let’s just call it a decent ice storm.   I’m seeing 1/4-1/3” in NC CAD areas.  Look at KY…… that’s a crippling ice storm.  Who knows how it will end up.  
TW

[StantonParkHoya]

12z CMC also likes southern / coastal areas for 10/11

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

12z CMC also likes southern / coastal areas for 10/11

It didn’t have the storm before this run so that’s a win

[suzook]

Lol, everyone was jumping off the cliff and hour ago, now we got the tip back in.