Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[ncjoaquin]

It will be gone at 0z, but I will throw it on here to break the silence.

[BornAgain13]

18z GEFS really bumped up for next Sunday. Probably will be gone by 0z though. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GEFS really bumped up for next Sunday. Probably will be gone by 0z though. 

Yeah, 18Z GEFS strongly for an ensemble mean followed the 18Z GFS fwiw (thus I don’t expect this to hold up on the 0Z):

[BornAgain13]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yeah, 18Z GEFS strongly for an ensemble mean followed the 18Z GFS fwiw (thus I don’t expect this to hold up on the 0Z):

The way the models have not been performing well, nothing would surprise me right now lol. But yeah more than likely, this won't last.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, ncjoaquin said:

It will be gone at 0z, but I will throw it on here to break the silence.

 

5 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GEFS really bumped up for next Sunday. Probably will be gone by 0z though. 

Not gone at 0Z. Still there and similar:

 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS 10:1 24 hour snow: lower amounts vs 18Z GEFS but still decent signal 

[NorthHillsWx]

Still there at 6z too 

[frazdaddy]

GfS says good morning.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

GfS says good morning.

6z is a big hit in southern Virginia. GFS Looks like modeling leading up to last storm lol. 

[eyewall]

Could be a legit signal.

[NorthHillsWx]

17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Could be a legit signal.

The 9-10th period has been on models for a long time but it’s literally a 1.5 day cold shot so there’s no margin for error but yea probably enough of a signal to pay attention to. 

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The 9-10th period has been on models for a long time but it’s literally a 1.5 day cold shot so there’s no margin for error but yea probably enough of a signal to pay attention to. 

and that is how March rolls around here for sure.

[olafminesaw]

EURO and Euro AI feature suppression. Certainly not the Barney cold as needed, to give wiggle room, about as "thread the needle" as a system can be. The only reason it snows on the GFS is it is able to produce it's own cold and draw down the colder air aloft. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

EURO and Euro AI feature suppression. Certainly not the Barney cold as needed, to give wiggle room, about as "thread the needle" as a system can be. The only reason it snows on the GFS is it is able to produce it's own cold and draw down the colder air aloft. 

Honestly that’s how we get most March snow outside the mountains. If 850’s are workable with a dynamic system. Pretty rare to get a non-suppressed storm with an established Barney airmass this late in the year. The system showing up on all models is a fair signal at this timeframe but as stated it’s as thread the needle as you can get even for here. Mountains are definitely in the game. 

[frazdaddy]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

EURO and Euro AI feature suppression. Certainly not the Barney cold as needed, to give wiggle room, about as "thread the needle" as a system can be. The only reason it snows on the GFS is it is able to produce it's own cold and draw down the colder air aloft. 

Yeah, and we know how that usually works out.