NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I think people are overlooking tomorrow’s wind event and, in honesty, it crept up on me. Hi res models are spitting out widespread 50+ mph gusts and some gusts up near 70 mph!!! This is after most areas have seen 3+” of rain after tonight’s rainfall. That should be very saturated soil especially in February 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I think people are overlooking tomorrow’s wind event and, in honesty, it crept up on me. Hi res models are spitting out widespread 50+ mph gusts and gusts up near 70 mph!!! This is after most areas have seen 3+” of rain after tonight’s rainfall. That should be very saturated soil especially in February I agree and it caught my attention when warnings dropped this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NWS is all in on tomorrow being a very significant damaging wind event. Widespread power outages expected. Man that would suck to lose power tomorrow and then get hit with a (potentially) devastating ice storm Wednesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The new Euro Weeklies for 2/17-23 is the coldest yet for that week in the SE. In terms of anomalies, this would be the coldest of the winter in most of NC if it were to verify. In terms of absolutes, it would be close to Jan 20-26 for coldest in much of NC. For S GA/SC, it would be either 2nd or 3rd coldest in terms of anomalies/3rd coldest in terms of absolutes. For N GA/upstate SC, it would be ~a tie with Jan 20-26 for coldest anomaly and would be 2nd or 3rd coldest in terms of absolutes: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Thanks for your advice everyone. I’m writing down a list of numbers right now. I had no clue about the winds we’re supposed to get tomorrow. Not a fan of the wet soil and high winds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, GaWx said: The new Euro Weeklies for 2/17-23 is the coldest yet for that week in the SE. In terms of anomalies, this would be the coldest of the winter in most of NC if it were to verify. In terms of absolutes, it would be close to Jan 20-26 for coldest in much of NC. For S GA/SC, it would be either 2nd or 3rd coldest in terms of anomalies/3rd coldest in terms of absolutes. For N GA/upstate SC, it would be ~a tie with Jan 20-26 for coldest anomaly and would be 2nd or 3rd coldest in terms of absolutes: The week 2/19-25 has a good chance to end up the coldest week of the winter at GSO (and at other NC cities). If so, it would be the latest coldest week there since way back in 1993! Then the coldest was 3/13-19/1993 due to the superstorm. Going back to 1959-60, the only two other winters with a later coldest week were 2/21-27/1967 and 3/4-10/1960. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Pick one...any one. I'm sure you'll find something you like. If not, no problem. We'll make something up on the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Wave #2 (2/22-23) on 0Z EPS: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Saw some high gusts in N Georgia overnight from the line of storms. Might be a precursor to todays wind event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Wind is underpeforming so far without question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Saw some high gusts in N Georgia overnight from the line of storms. Might be a precursor to todays wind event We were in a tornado warning from 4am to 445 am this morning. Not fun getting woken up from the tornado siren. 2nd one in the last 2 months. Fortunately no wind damage or tornado touchdown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 LR looks very springy with 70s/80s beginning 3/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The 12Z GFS and CMC have a pretty close call for wintry precip in the deep SE on Feb 24th from a coastal: GFS: CMC: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted Monday at 12:16 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:16 AM Went to bed with a tornado watch, woke up to a squall line and tornado warning. Went back to sleep and snoozed thru it all. Glad I didn't wake up wrapped around a tree. Hope that's it for tornado season After the Masters, I'll be ready for fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:31 PM GFS says cancel your warm weather plans 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted Tuesday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:39 PM 11 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS says cancel your warm weather plans Yes, i don't know how long it will take this broader pattern to change . but that seems to be more of a positive sign than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:22 PM Don't look at Day 13 of the GFS lol. A Blizzard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:30 PM 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Don't look at Day 13 of the GFS lol. A Blizzard lol Wait until the northern stream hears about this 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:32 PM 10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Don't look at Day 13 of the GFS lol. A Blizzard lol And Barney returns! I’d love for this to verify just for the cold. But it is just a fantasy range 12Z GFS op run which looks totally different from prior runs. So, this has no more than entertainment value, of course. It will likely be far different on the Happy Hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:32 PM 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Don't look at Day 13 of the GFS lol. A Blizzard lol I looked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:35 PM Just now, GaWx said: And Barney returns! But it is just a fantasy range GFS op run which looks totally different from prior runs. So, this has no more than entertainment value, of course. It will likely be far different on the Happy Hour run. The mjo looks to possibly loop in phase 8 which would carry us into March. Yeah of course the usual caveats apply but I don't think we are nearly done with the cold after this week. Ryan Maue has been really harping on another visit from the pv the past few weeks going into March. He actually made a post yesterday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:54 PM The idea that tomorrow’s storm happens and then we jump to spring is absolutely false. Being stuck in phase 8 and the AO looks to tank again in early March. It’s far out but NAO goes to at least neutral at same time (and appears to be tanking). To me after some up and down weather to end February we will likely start March off cold with at least the chance of wintry weather. We lose the pacific though which has been nice through most of this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Tuesday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:57 PM 24 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I looked. I think im going to move to VAB 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:01 PM 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: The idea that tomorrow’s storm happens and then we jump to spring is absolutely false. Being stuck in phase 8 and the AO looks to tank again in early March. It’s far out but NAO goes to at least neutral at same time (and appears to be tanking). To me after some up and down weather to end February we will likely start March off cold with at least the chance of wintry weather. We lose the pacific though which has been nice through most of this winter. It would be pretty remarkable if early March is also cold with it being La Niña. That’s somewhat favored during El Niño, not La Niña. But this winter has been unusual overall with regard to ENSO. Also, the coldest periods with the TPV lobes bringing the E US cold during very strong/near record strong SPV periods has been anything but normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted Tuesday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:55 PM Cranky off the top rope...the board would crash 2 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Tuesday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:45 PM I relish March snow. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted Tuesday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:39 PM 52 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I relish March snow. Not only that but the 310 day GFS says 2025 will have a white Christmas across all of North Carolina. I’m going to buy a sled right now!!! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted Tuesday at 10:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:38 PM 59 minutes ago, jburns said: Not only that but the 310 day GFS says 2025 will have a white Christmas across all of North Carolina. I’m going to buy a sled right now!!! Don't get my hopes up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted Tuesday at 11:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:05 PM 1 hour ago, jburns said: Not only that but the 310 day GFS says 2025 will have a white Christmas across all of North Carolina. I’m going to buy a sled right now!!! Might as well start the thread now....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:17 PM 5 hours ago, Met1985 said: The mjo looks to possibly loop in phase 8 which would carry us into March. Yeah of course the usual caveats apply but I don't think we are nearly done with the cold after this week. Ryan Maue has been really harping on another visit from the pv the past few weeks going into March. He actually made a post yesterday. Very much fwiw, I think Barney hacked the 360 hour 12Z EPS and GEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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