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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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I think people are overlooking tomorrow’s wind event and, in honesty, it crept up on me. Hi res models are spitting out widespread 50+ mph gusts and some gusts up near 70 mph!!! This is after most areas have seen 3+” of rain after tonight’s rainfall. That should be very saturated soil especially in February 

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think people are overlooking tomorrow’s wind event and, in honesty, it crept up on me. Hi res models are spitting out widespread 50+ mph gusts and gusts up near 70 mph!!! This is after most areas have seen 3+” of rain after tonight’s rainfall. That should be very saturated soil especially in February 

I agree and it caught my attention when warnings dropped this afternoon 

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 The new Euro Weeklies for 2/17-23 is the coldest yet for that week in the SE. In terms of anomalies, this would be the coldest of the winter in most of NC if it were to verify. In terms of absolutes, it would be close to Jan 20-26 for coldest in much of NC.

 For S GA/SC, it would be either 2nd or 3rd coldest in terms of anomalies/3rd coldest in terms of absolutes. For N GA/upstate SC, it would be ~a tie with Jan 20-26 for coldest anomaly and would be 2nd or 3rd coldest in terms of absolutes:

IMG_2996.thumb.webp.c6fe3dc9fd7bd18899847b87a6f617fe.webp

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3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro Weeklies for 2/17-23 is the coldest yet for that week in the SE. In terms of anomalies, this would be the coldest of the winter in most of NC if it were to verify. In terms of absolutes, it would be close to Jan 20-26 for coldest in much of NC.

 For S GA/SC, it would be either 2nd or 3rd coldest in terms of anomalies/3rd coldest in terms of absolutes. For N GA/upstate SC, it would be ~a tie with Jan 20-26 for coldest anomaly and would be 2nd or 3rd coldest in terms of absolutes:

IMG_2996.thumb.webp.c6fe3dc9fd7bd18899847b87a6f617fe.webp

 The week 2/19-25 has a good chance to end up the coldest week of the winter at GSO (and at other NC cities). If so, it would be the latest coldest week there since way back in 1993! Then the coldest was 3/13-19/1993 due to the superstorm.

 Going back to 1959-60, the only two other winters with a later coldest week were 2/21-27/1967 and 3/4-10/1960.

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3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Saw some high gusts in N Georgia overnight from the line of storms. Might be a precursor to todays wind event 

We were in a tornado warning from 4am to 445 am this morning. Not fun getting woken up from the tornado siren. 2nd one in the last 2 months. Fortunately no wind damage or tornado touchdown here.

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10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Don't look at Day 13 of the GFS lol. A Blizzard lol

And Barney returns! I’d love for this to verify just for the cold. But it is just a fantasy range 12Z GFS op run which looks totally different from prior runs. So, this has no more than entertainment value, of course. It will likely be far different on the Happy Hour run.

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Just now, GaWx said:

And Barney returns! But it is just a fantasy range GFS op run which looks totally different from prior runs. So, this has no more than entertainment value, of course. It will likely be far different on the Happy Hour run.

The mjo looks to possibly loop in phase 8 which would carry us into March. Yeah of course the usual caveats apply but I don't think we are nearly done with the cold after this week. Ryan Maue has been really harping on another visit from the pv the past few weeks going into March. He actually made a post yesterday. 

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The idea that tomorrow’s storm happens and then we jump to spring is absolutely false. Being stuck in phase 8 and the AO looks to tank again in early March. It’s far out but NAO goes to at least neutral at same time (and appears to be tanking). To me after some up and down weather to end February we will likely start March off cold with at least the chance of wintry weather. We lose the pacific though which has been nice through most of this winter. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The idea that tomorrow’s storm happens and then we jump to spring is absolutely false. Being stuck in phase 8 and the AO looks to tank again in early March. It’s far out but NAO goes to at least neutral at same time (and appears to be tanking). To me after some up and down weather to end February we will likely start March off cold with at least the chance of wintry weather. We lose the pacific though which has been nice through most of this winter. 

 It would be pretty remarkable if early March is also cold with it being La Niña. That’s somewhat favored during El Niño, not La Niña. But this winter has been unusual overall with regard to ENSO. Also, the coldest periods with the TPV lobes bringing the E US cold during very strong/near record strong SPV periods has been anything but normal.

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5 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The mjo looks to possibly loop in phase 8 which would carry us into March. Yeah of course the usual caveats apply but I don't think we are nearly done with the cold after this week. Ryan Maue has been really harping on another visit from the pv the past few weeks going into March. He actually made a post yesterday. 

Very much fwiw, I think Barney hacked the 360 hour 12Z EPS and GEFS:

IMG_3105.thumb.png.af89966fa9db3d930d41f567bbc94249.pngIMG_3106.thumb.png.668091c488bca9b230557e8eaf0b2401.png

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