BlueRidge18 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 EPS MEAN euro is locked in folks . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, BlueRidge18 said: EPS MEAN euro is locked in folks . Nice uptick from this evenings 18z. Trended colder and more moisture this run. Seems like the OP is more amped than the EPS and warmer, maybe signs that it could adjust some to colder and more snow to meet the ENS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6z Euro continues to display the big ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Borrowed from the mid Atlantic forum. This is Kuchera, so just Snow. Not ice If you compare to 0z, it did shift south some. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Everything looks like it trended a tick colder at the surface than 0z. This matters bc if it’s 26-27 vs 29-30 I’d have to think 925’s would be colder too and we could sleet instead of ice for some of the event. If it is in fact 26-27 with freezing rain, those high end ice totals will be realized 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Here's 0z for a comparison. Not a huge difference. A little less at 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This will not be fun for CNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 lol the AI with the casual 200 mile NW jump to be in lockstep with everything else. Actually colder at surface with ice for central NC. As scooby says, ruh roh! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: This will not be fun for CNC This honestly looks like a colder version of 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: lol the AI with the casual 200 mile NW jump to be in lockstep with everything else. Actually colder at surface with ice for central NC. As scooby says, ruh roh! What's it show further north? Or where does the Snow/ICE line set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: What's it show further north? Or where does the Snow/ICE line set up? You’re in a great spot. It’s tough to decipher but line looks like I-85 with ice for triangle to coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Icy 6z Canadian, a bit warmer/more amped than other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Something to watch, the warm nose currently isn't super strong, which kinda makes sense due to the favorable storm track. Dynamic cooling may help flip some areas along the changeover line back to snow when heavier rates/better dynamics set up. Need to watch the wraparound for a changeover as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I nominate @NorthHillsWx to make a storm thread. I feel like this is your storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here we go: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just think...by tomorrow morning at this time we can all start to get nam'ed together. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Just think...by tomorrow morning at this time we can all start to get nam'ed together. All fun and games until it shows a 5°C warm nose above us, violently charging its way to Richmond. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/10/2025 at 4:26 PM, GaWx said: I’ve seen in ATL bad icestorms where the temp was mainly 30-31. Not really bad on roads at those temps but bad on elevated surfaces. Especially if the ZR wasn’t pouring and winds were on lighter side. So many variables I guess. Tony @dsaurtold the forum many times about the terrible Jan 1973 icestorm in Buckhead portion of N ATL. He said the temp was mainly 31-32 in that one and the ZR was heavy at times. I think he said roads were bad, too. But there may have been some snow and sleet preceding the ZR contributing to road problems. So, you never know. How far temp aloft gets above 32 is important variable. Nope, all heavy rain, and zr from the outset. Never saw it waver off 32, but that was a sign board on the bank up the street, so take it with a grain of salt...but over time it was pretty accurate and I was there 10 years. Don't recall my steps being iced but the build up on the rail was near 3 inches, and the roads were impassible due to all the hot wires, trees and poles down block after block but not iced. I don't think Ptree St had a pole left standing as far as I could see. And the side streets were all downed trees as well. No one could go anywhere for days. Never ever want to see that again, or anything close. A terrifying night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Just think...by tomorrow morning at this time we can all start to get nam'ed together. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/12/2025 at 11:33 AM, GaWx said: And then another wintry threat follows Barney on 12Z GFS I thought winter cold was over and no more threats from way back in Jan, lol. I guess real winter didn't listen. I saw a blizzard in mid march and heavy snow in late March, so winter is never over until it says it is. Please don't tell me there is a Winter Storm Barney now, lol. Oh, the humanity! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This next SW is mildly interesting on the 12Z Euro as at face value it is a close call for a light wintry event here and nearby (coastal SE) with the low going across S FL in combo with lingering Arctic air to the N: EPS has a decent Miller A storm signal: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: This next SW is mildly interesting on the 12Z Euro as at face value it is a close call for a light wintry event here and nearby (coastal SE) with the low going across S FL in combo with lingering Arctic air to the N: Though handled differently other models are showing this too. GFS actually really close to another coastal. The 23-25 timeframe needs to be watched for our next storm. I haven’t had time to check the indices but it looks like cold from next weeks storm will stick around long enough to make things interesting. Won’t be a fresh airmass like we are working with Wednesday but it may work. Something to keep our eye on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Though handled differently other models are showing this too. GFS actually really close to another coastal. The 23-25 timeframe needs to be watched for our next storm. I haven’t had time to check the indices but it looks like cold from next weeks storm will stick around long enough to make things interesting. Won’t be a fresh airmass like we are working with Wednesday but it may work. Something to keep our eye on GEPS (2/22-3): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I HATE doing IMBY posts, but I need some knowledgeable opinions. My husband, youngest daughter, and I are going to Canada tomorrow for six days. Our 18 year-old son didn’t want to go, so we told him that since he’s a legal adult and our neighbors would be there if he needed anything, we were fine with it. Thankfully he’s super responsible and very mature as well. When I first saw the forecast for North Raleigh few days ago, it said just snow. I was fine with that. It seems like the last 24 hours have shown a pretty bad ice storm heading our way. Do you guys think that’s true or could it change? If we lose power here, I’m not really sure what he’s going to do. I can get him a hotel room somewhere, but even though he is very mature for his age, I know that would be a little scary for him. I told my husband we should cut our trip short because it worries me, but I just wanted to get some expert opinions before we do anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, snowinnc said: I HATE doing IMBY posts, but I need some knowledgeable opinions. My husband, youngest daughter, and I are going to Canada tomorrow for six days. Our 18 year-old son didn’t want to go, so we told him that since he’s a legal adult and our neighbors would be there if he needed anything, we were fine with it. Thankfully he’s super responsible and very mature as well. When I first saw the forecast for North Raleigh few days ago, it said just snow. I was fine with that. It seems like the last 24 hours have shown a pretty bad ice storm heading our way. Do you guys think that’s true or could it change? If we lose power here, I’m not really sure what he’s going to do. I can get him a hotel room somewhere, but even though he is very mature for his age, I know that would be a little scary for him. I told my husband we should cut our trip short because it worries me, but I just wanted to get some expert opinions before we do anything. Go and let him stay. In 20 years he can tell the story to his kids about how his crazy parents went all the way to Canada while he stayed home and enjoyed the largest snow/ice storm in Raleigh this century. Seriously, go and don’t worry. He is 18 and responsible and could be doing something a lot more worrisome. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, GaWx said: GEPS (2/22-3): Nonstop tracking all winter lol. Regardless what happens Wednesday/thursday it looks like we’ll at least be tracking through the end of the month 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 High wind warning issued for central/NE NC tomorrow. Gusts 50-60 with saturated soils. What could go wrong??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If we do get any snow, the temps are favorable for it to stay around for a while. Looks sunny last part of the week and the sun is for sure higher than the last storm. Could be a nice cold sunny after snow scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 41 minutes ago, snowinnc said: I HATE doing IMBY posts, but I need some knowledgeable opinions. My husband, youngest daughter, and I are going to Canada tomorrow for six days. Our 18 year-old son didn’t want to go, so we told him that since he’s a legal adult and our neighbors would be there if he needed anything, we were fine with it. Thankfully he’s super responsible and very mature as well. When I first saw the forecast for North Raleigh few days ago, it said just snow. I was fine with that. It seems like the last 24 hours have shown a pretty bad ice storm heading our way. Do you guys think that’s true or could it change? If we lose power here, I’m not really sure what he’s going to do. I can get him a hotel room somewhere, but even though he is very mature for his age, I know that would be a little scary for him. I told my husband we should cut our trip short because it worries me, but I just wanted to get some expert opinions before we do anything. I agree with Burns. I'd just make sure he has plenty of amenities, he had emergency numbers that are local and people you trust, and you just sit him down and talk about what to do in case of a severe ice storm. Just prepare for the worst and make sure you set him up or success and not failure just in case. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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