BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 My main takeaway from the 18z suite is that we need better high placement. Our parent high over the Dakotas isn’t going to do much for us. Either it builds into a less consolidated high or it progresses eastward faster, but if I took away the simulated radar and purely looked at the track + HP location, I’d tell you it’s probably raining almost to DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Also, something that smells fishy to me that I’ve seen all day. You could technically have freezing rain simultaneously in Fayetteville and Hickory, I guess, but I can’t drum up a single scenario in the past where that has happened. It’s either unprecedented or these models are all out to lunch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, BooneWX said: Also, something that smells fishy to me that I’ve seen all day. You could technically have freezing rain simultaneously in Fayetteville and Hickory, I guess, but I can’t drum up a single scenario in the past where that has happened. It’s either unprecedented or these models are all out to lunch. The broad field depictions are suspect for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopack42 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Tulsa has all you could ever want in weather within a few days No way do I want a 60+ degree swing in less than a week. Nope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Also, something that smells fishy to me that I’ve seen all day. You could technically have freezing rain simultaneously in Fayetteville and Hickory, I guess, but I can’t drum up a single scenario in the past where that has happened. It’s either unprecedented or these models are all out to lunch. Not a common look that's for sure. I think we may have more wild swings ahead.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro is just a classic 80s/90s type nc north event. Big mixed bag in NC piedmont with the mid Atantic getting a big snow. A Parent HP over the dakotas has actually produced some of our more classic ice events. The parent HP that far west favors a long duration overruning setup. The trough axis tends to be a bit too far west for pure snow. I am concerned with the euro keying in one such large ice accretion this far out. Haven't seen that in many years for NC. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks like the weekly planner on TWC in the late 90s https://x.com/chazzzwx/status/1890545541278294248?s=09 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I think the triangle area is at its highest risk of a devastating ice storm since December 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I think the triangle area is at its highest risk of a devastating ice storm since December 2002 I'll buy that... but better bet is mixy sleet storm or cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Actually the AI is close to a bomb the 12z ICON showed yesterday. 525 strong heights in Michigan,southern shortwave close to the Mississippi,northern stream dropping in from the midwest.Couple ticks. Just my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 0z ICON with a colder scenario and a solid Winter Storm. Cold Smoke for northern NC into VA. Central and Eastern NC with an ICE Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ICON MUCH colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z ICON with a colder scenario and a solid Winter Storm. Cold Smoke for northern NC into VA. Central and Eastern NC with an ICE Storm Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Mixing aside, ICON is a HELL of a winter storm for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 0z ICON. This does not count ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z ICON. This does not count ZR I worry the 1”+ freezing rain will show up over my house on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 ICON kind of looks like a blend of the Euro and GFS. Let's see if the GFS can finally resemble the other models.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Orange county said: Yikes Yikes is right… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 925s are 0 to -1 along and west of US 1 during the peak of the precip on ICON. Folks thats not freezing rain. That’s a sleet bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: 925s are 0 to -1 along and west of US 1 during the peak of the precip on ICON. Folks thats not freezing rain. That’s a sleet bomb That's probably huge amounts of sleet taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ICON back to snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Icon drops 1.50” of precip and 99% is modeled as freezing rain for Raleigh. I don’t have freezing rain maps but that would likely be at least 0.75” of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 GFS is a little colder than last run so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 0z GFS looks to be a little colder compared to 18z. Let's see what it does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Energy is a bit south this run too and a smidgen slower 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Definitely colder this run but still looks a little weaker than other models. Timing slowed which helped some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Coming in line now with other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS is icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 It's not as phase happy as the Euro but it was a step in the right direction IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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