olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Feels like the EPS has been rock steady on a Danville to Richmond bullseye for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This one made me laugh on the mid Atlantic thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Obviously still 5-6 days out but this what TWC has here. They give us a total of 6-10". Fun to look at but I realize it will change a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: This Stormvista 12Z EPS snow map is way overdone in some of the southern portion. Here’s the comparable WB 10:1 map: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Good news for most folks is the ground temps will be cold leading up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Euro is over 24 hours straight of nonstop freezing rain and temps in the 20s for here… that would be catastrophic being our trees haven’t been tested by ice in 20 years Feb 2014 had back-to-back storms that I'd argue gave moderate tree damage in the CAD favored areas b/t Triad and Triangle. I know in Burlington - we had a 4-day power outage with the first storm if memory serves me. Noted - Wake and immediate areas avoided these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looking at the HP placement on the Euro, man it’s close. We can historically make a strong HP over Iowa work, at least in the CAD region but any nudge east would do us some huge favors. You can see it scooting east a bit just in time to save the day but timing timing timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The Euro AI has not been good overall this winter imo as I just posted. It especially blew the most recent storm’s snowfall, way overdoing it with 850 0C line way too far south and thus having historic snow amounts way far south of the actual snow line (though Stormvista snow maps likely overdid the amounts somewhat). So, I’m taking this very SE suppressed 12Z Euro AI with a gigantic grain at this point: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: The Euro AI has not been good overall this winter imo as I just posted. It especially blew the most recent storm’s snowfall, way overdoing it with 850 0C line way too far south and thus having historic snow amounts way far south of the actual snow line. So, I’m taking this very suppressed 12Z Euro AI with a gigantic grain at this point: I thought it had good verification scores. This would be range dependent though. 3-5days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 One piece of guidance hasn’t flinched with the pieces of energy in several runs: the EPS. The one you want in your back pocket. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I thought it had good verification scores. This would be range dependent though. 3-5days? 1) As just mentioned it had very heavy (historic in some cases) snow on several runs in a row very far to the south (as far S as NE GA, upstate SC) for earlier this week, for example. However, to be fair, those runs were further out than 5 days. 2) For the Jan 10-11 storm, it had warming S winds ahead of the N Gulf low on the backside of the high moving offshore and ahead of a Clipper. That hardly ever happens. It ended up dead wrong at the surface. 3) I’m not disputing what you’re saying, but I don’t know exactly what you’re referring to and what exactly the verification measures. It could have been an H5 verification for all I know. The main problems may lie underneath 500 mb. Do you have a link or can you post the graphics? 4) I’m not saying it couldn’t end up right with the very suppressed track. With the preceding -5 AO, it could occur despite La Niña. What I’m saying is I’m taking it with a huge grain while it is on its own. 5) Are you favoring this very suppressed track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m not as excited as everyone else for points south of Richmond. Looks like ice, and I’d rather we have 33 and rain than ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Need a little better press/push from the north,the 504 dm PV needs to move more over the Great Lakes and not lag back. Ice/sleet setup at the moment but could change with a few adjustments.Just my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I'm good with ice. Actually a mix of snow (first), then sleet, then freezing rain, and then back to snow to top it off is a great storm. I'd still take any of those over cold rain. TW 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Vodka cold coming https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1890475227211079715?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1) As just mentioned it had very heavy (historic in some cases) snow on several runs in a row very far to the south (as far S as NE GA, upstate SC) for earlier this week, for example. 2) For the Jan 10-11 storm, it had warming S winds ahead of the N Gulf low on the backside of the high moving offshore and ahead of a Clipper. That hardly ever happens. It ended up dead wrong at the surface. 3) I’m not disputing what you’re saying, but I don’t know exactly what you’re referring to and what exactly the verification measures. It could have been an H5 verification for all I know. The main problems may lie underneath 500 mb. Do you have a link or can you post the graphics? 4) I’m not saying it couldn’t end up right with the very suppressed track. With the preceding -5 AO, it could occur. What I’m saying is I’m taking it with a huge grain while it is on its own. 5) Are you favoring this very suppressed track? I don't have specifics but I've seen charts posted where it is rated pretty well. You are correct in 'what are the specifics it scores well in?' and at what range (which I mentioned here) No, I do not see a suppressed track verifying. I do suspect a further north (Va) centralized placement with this storm. Just been the case this season. All anecdotal thinking for sure, but wouldn't surprise me in the end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 56 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I don't have specifics but I've seen charts posted where it is rated pretty well. You are correct in 'what are the specifics it scores well in?' and at what range (which I mentioned here) No, I do not see a suppressed track verifying. I do suspect a further north (Va) centralized placement with this storm. Just been the case this season. All anecdotal thinking for sure, but wouldn't surprise me in the end. Yes, to be fair, those historic Euro AI snow maps were for when this week’s activity was 8-9 days out. Now we’re within 6 days. So, perhaps those too cold misses (including way too cold 850s) aren’t as relevant now. Also, I now realize that the S portion of StormVista snow maps have to be added to the non trusted snowfall map list. So, a portion (not all and probably not even most) of the overdoing of snow on the insane SV Euro AI maps may have been due to SV algos. But regardless, the 0C 850/snow line verified way too far S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 34 minutes ago, BooneWX said: One piece of guidance hasn’t flinched with the pieces of energy in several runs: the EPS. The one you want in your back pocket. If anything it's gotten a little better each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 0Z GEFS (see below) and other models remain insistent on a rare sub -5 AO tomorrow. Today’s preliminary is already down to -4.8. There have been only 12 such periods since 1950 (average of once every 6 years). In Feb, itself, there’s only been 4 periods of sub -5 (one every 15 Febs on average): -2/10-11/2021 (only La Niña Feb instance): major GSO icestorm 2 days later -2/6-7, 14/2010 (El Nino): 2 SE US winter storms (2/5, 2/12-13) -2/5-6/1978 (El Nino): several SE light snows 2/2-9 -2/13-16/1969 (El Nino): major winter storm 2/15-17 Charlotte to Asheville to GSP Today’s 0Z GEFS based AO forecast: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z GEFS (see below) and other models remain insistent on a rare sub -5 AO tomorrow. Today’s preliminary is already down to -4.8. There have been only 12 such periods since 1950 (average of once every 6 years). In Feb, itself, there’s only been 4 periods of sub -5 (one every 15 Febs on average): -2/10-11/2021 (only La Niña Feb instance): major GSO icestorm 2 days later -2/6-7, 14/2010 (El Nino): 2 SE US winter storms (2/5, 2/12-13) -2/5-6/1978 (El Nino): several SE light snows 2/2-9 -2/13-16/1969 (El Nino): major winter storm 2/15-17 Charlotte to Asheville to GSP Today’s 0Z GEFS based AO forecast: It's going to shoot up quick that's for sure! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12Z Euro AI way colder/further SE 850 0C line than other models (hour 126, which is as of 18Z on Feb 19th): Fayetteville to Gainesville: 12Z Euro op: N of RDU to TN 12Z GFS: S VA to TN 12Z CMC: S VA to TN 12Z Icon: S VA to TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Icon looks like it’s starting a little colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18z ICON was definitely colder than 12z. Not sure where it was headed at the end of its run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Icon looks like it’s starting a little colder 18Z Icon 120 850 0C line further SE than 12Z Icon 126 in NC/NW SC/N GA (toward the 12Z Euro AI): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: 18Z Icon 120 850 0C line further SE than 12Z Icon 126 in NC/NW SC/N GA (toward the 12Z Euro AI): ICON was a mixed bag for central NC but much better than 12z. Looked like it was getting its act together at the end of the run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: ICON was a mixed bag for central NC but much better than 12z. Looked like it was getting its act together at the end of the run Can u tell if it phases and captures or not on the vorticity maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Can u tell if it phases and captures or not on the vorticity maps? It looked to be phasing as the run ended. Very close. I’m not so sure it wasn’t about to go apeshit in a couple frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Can u tell if it phases and captures or not on the vorticity maps? Hasn't the ICON sucked on virtually every storm this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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