Upstate Tiger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS) Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: UK looks like mostly rain for NC and ice for the northern counties, but somehow ends up with this. Looking at this more closely, this 12Z Pivotal UK map has 2.5” of snowfall at RDU. Based on 850s, RDU gets no snow, ~0.2” of qpf as sleet, and ~0.5” qpf as ZR. Based on that, that’s ~0.6” of sleet (and no snow) vs this Pivotal map’s 2.5”. The SE/S portions of Pivotal UK snow maps are often not a reliable indicator of what the UK is actually generating. Algorithm issue at Pivotal for the UK snowfall maps is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m in a win win. If it snows in Raleigh it’ll be great, but since I’m going skiing in Virginia on Thursday afternoon, at a minimum we’ll have great conditions and likely some snow to play in around the house with the kids 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 50-70% probabilities have just been added to a large chunk of VA/DC/MD/WV/NC for a potential significant winter storm next week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12Z Euro Kuchera: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12Z Euro ZR looks bad for many in NC, especially Triangle vicinity and S/SE of there: Low track 12Z Euro: Sleet: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Lets just call it an inch of freezing rain for Garnertown Better go get some beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro is colder but not upstairs… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro Kuchera: Euro drops about a foot here. Sure wish other guidance would catch onto that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro better than GFS. 1057 high over the Great Basin LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The GFS is a big outlier regarding temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Well I would rather have the Euro/Eps combination than the gfs. Hopefully the eps follows the op and even pushes more south to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro is over 24 hours straight of nonstop freezing rain and temps in the 20s for here… that would be catastrophic being our trees haven’t been tested by ice in 20 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Euro is colder but not upstairs… Yep. The 540 is in VA surprise. Just a bit slower and we're in business.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Euro drops about a foot here. Sure wish other guidance would catch onto that And unlike some other snow maps, these WB 12Z Euro Kuchera maps look legit based on the 850 mb 0C line. There’s a short period of non-snow just N of the NC/VA border in your vicinity when 850s go >0C (centered on 6Z of Feb 20th), but otherwise it is snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro is another flew blown Nor'easter right up the coast. The mountains likely to get a big NWF event out of that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Monster storm up the coast. This would be a blockbuster storm for the east coast as a whole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The GFS is a big outlier regarding temps Actually, I'd say the GFS is the outlier while the Euro, UK, and Canadian are relatively aligned to be over 5 days out. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 EPS holds serve and is a major storm for I-85 north. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Monster ice storm on the Euro. Much bigger deal here on the Euro than the other models runs today. Hope it gets colder, though, and we have snow. That much ice would be insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 My hunch is this turn more and more into a classic for NC as we see precip begin to increase back further west while we also see a classic turn to snow on the backside of the storm. Take this with a grain of salt and only for similarity purposes, but it reminds me a bit of March '93 in the way I'd expect precip to transition through the storm. NO, I'm not saying this is anything like March '93, on a similarity in the precip and the way I beleive the storm may begin to strengthen a bit early and wrap in more cold air which is there for it to tap into. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z EPS . 6" Snow Mean up here. Been a while since I saw that on an EPS at 5 days or less 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 My .02 is that given model agreement for days now on a significant storm of some type for the area (and likely a high impact one for areas that get below freezing), and we’re only 5 days out, this probably deserves a thread since it’s hijacked any chance of discussion about the upcoming pattern, which honestly looks like we might get another chance before March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, BooneWX said: EPS holds serve and is a major storm for I-85 north. It's the combo we want. The GFS is picking boogers per usual 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ugh we got a ton of line trees here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Pretty much where we want it. Sleet is inevitable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Pretty much where we want it. Sleet is inevitable A 1” mean with a coastal is insane at day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Ensembles look like they are better for snow here than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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