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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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One big thing that is killing us this winter is the 50/50 can never setup and confluence has been weaker each storm as we get closer to the event. That's why we have had so many good looks in the 6-10 day range that simply turn into cold rain or mix.

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2 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said:

FWIW the 6z Euro AI was even more south East with the low (suppressed) then 0z. So curious to see what the euro does. Not to model hug but the euro AI has done extremely well this winter.


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It insists on a central/eastern NC snowstorm. On an island but it has been consistent lol

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It insists on a central/eastern NC snowstorm. On an island but it has been consistent lol

Yea for sure, but tracking the last 3 snow events the Euro op or ens ended up trending to the AI. It has been accurate with these winter threats and very consistent. So some hope or wish casting haha. Encouraging with the 6z because the 0z was more amped and warmer. 6z is cold!


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4 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said:

FWIW the 6z Euro AI was even more south East with the low (suppressed) then 0z. So curious to see what the euro does. Not to model hug but the euro AI has done extremely well this winter.


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I disagree. The Euro AI has been awful. For example, check out these insane snowfall amounts (and the model really had it as snow with 850s <0C):

IMG_2774.thumb.jpeg.402543b64422a9f54fc0ea13f6621d76.jpegIMG_2773.png.8c4570e26e6277c67f88196bd736a4bb.png
 

IMG_2772.png.f7fe32d7688f091d208da5614194b8a6.pngIMG_2790.png.3161113798c7d802933066d9de3da542.png

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I disagree. The Euro AI has been awful. For example, check out these insane snowfall amounts (and the model really had it as snow with 850s IMG_2774.thumb.jpeg.402543b64422a9f54fc0ea13f6621d76.jpegIMG_2773.png.8c4570e26e6277c67f88196bd736a4bb.png
 
IMG_2772.png.f7fe32d7688f091d208da5614194b8a6.pngIMG_2790.png.3161113798c7d802933066d9de3da542.png

Good point, i was only going off tracking within the 3-5 day and didn’t look at the archive. Oh well wishful thinking


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7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

UK looks like mostly rain for NC and ice for the northern counties, but somehow puts out this.

 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

The SE portion of UK snowfall maps on Pivotal, just like the Icon snow maps on Tropical Tidbits, are beyond awful because they’re often way overdone. This map is likely counting much of the ZR as 10:1 snow.

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9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

UK looks like mostly rain for NC and ice for the northern counties, but somehow ends up with this.

 

floop-ukmo_global-2025021412.prateptype_ukmo-imp.us_ma.gif.6fcae4fffe38affc06c2d9f5394b0b87.gif

 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS)

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