Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Canadian looks like it might be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Canadian gonna be much warmer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Canadian gonna be much warmer SE Ridge flexing on most models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Canadian looks halfway between the GFS and Euro at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 A tale as old as time, all the cold air gets dumped into Texas and we get the leftovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Nope, Canadian sucks, too. Rain south of VA. Snow in AR and TN but turns to rain when it gets to NC. We're 0 for 3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Some ice and sleet in NC but moved pretty far north from last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: A tale as old as time, all the cold air gets dumped into Texas and we get the leftovers A high in Montana is not gonna cut it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Cmc definitely went more north. Snow to Sleet bomb up this way with the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Boston gets 30"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 One big thing that is killing us this winter is the 50/50 can never setup and confluence has been weaker each storm as we get closer to the event. That's why we have had so many good looks in the 6-10 day range that simply turn into cold rain or mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ouch that hurt bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 So tired of seeing things trend good on the models between 10 and 7 days out with some of them showing big storms, and then once we get inside 7 days things do a complete 180. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The rollercoaster continues. Tracking in the SE is not for the weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: The rollercoaster continues. Tracking in the SE is not for the weak exactly! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It is not looking great obviously but we have zero run to run consistency still. Pretty much anything is on the table still. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 So tired of seeing things trend good on the models between 10 and 7 days out with some of them showing big storms, and then once we get inside 7 days things do a complete 180.It’s waiting for the Friday midnight run like last time .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 FWIW the 6z Euro AI was even more south East with the low (suppressed) then 0z. So curious to see what the euro does. Not to model hug but the euro AI has done extremely well this winter. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: FWIW the 6z Euro AI was even more south East with the low (suppressed) then 0z. So curious to see what the euro does. Not to model hug but the euro AI has done extremely well this winter. . It insists on a central/eastern NC snowstorm. On an island but it has been consistent lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It insists on a central/eastern NC snowstorm. On an island but it has been consistent lolYea for sure, but tracking the last 3 snow events the Euro op or ens ended up trending to the AI. It has been accurate with these winter threats and very consistent. So some hope or wish casting haha. Encouraging with the 6z because the 0z was more amped and warmer. 6z is cold!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 UK continues the theme of warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: FWIW the 6z Euro AI was even more south East with the low (suppressed) then 0z. So curious to see what the euro does. Not to model hug but the euro AI has done extremely well this winter. . I disagree. The Euro AI has been awful. For example, check out these insane snowfall amounts (and the model really had it as snow with 850s <0C): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Unfortunately, with how the 12z models are going, I would think the Euro would trend north and warmer to. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Unfortunately, with how the 12z models are going, I would think the Euro would trend north and warmer to. Hope I'm wrong. Most likely. Especially since the UK went way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Most likely. Especially since the UK went way north UK is still a nice hit here, but to warm for NC other than the northern part of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I disagree. The Euro AI has been awful. For example, check out these insane snowfall amounts (and the model really had it as snow with 850s Good point, i was only going off tracking within the 3-5 day and didn’t look at the archive. Oh well wishful thinking . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 UK looks like mostly rain for NC and ice for the northern counties, but somehow ends up with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: UK looks like mostly rain for NC and ice for the northern counties, but somehow puts out this. The SE portion of UK snowfall maps on Pivotal, just like the Icon snow maps on Tropical Tidbits, are beyond awful because they’re often way overdone. This map is likely counting much of the ZR as 10:1 snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I guess the UK is a little colder than the GFS and Canadian, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: UK looks like mostly rain for NC and ice for the northern counties, but somehow ends up with this. As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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