BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It sounds counter intuitive from what we’ve become used to but with a prime cold air source north of this, we need it to start deepening earlier to be able to more efficiently work that air into the system at mid levels. Amped, assuming it doesn’t cut up the coast, might be better here. With the extreme -AO, this might have less chance of cutting even as an amped system. I don’t think BL temps will be an issue especially if this slows down but the mid levels are torched on most modeling except the ones showing it bombing off the Carolina coast. That’s definitely a trend at this point Yep. I’m rooting for a phased bomb with negative tilt to be reached just east of the Mississippi. Our 50/50 low keeps trending east on guidance which is great for the mid-Atlantic and horrible for us. We need that to stop soon. It lets heights rise way too much and gives the SER breathing room. It’s a fine balance though. But maybe I’m wrong and we just let it trend a hair more east and you get an earlier boom possibly. As always, we’re threading the needle and needing 1,000 things to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 My gut says this setup will be an abnormal Miller A with more mixing issues than usual thanks to a late phase. Plenty of time to change but if I had to bet money atm, I’d say ice storm north of I-85 and no snow south of middle VA. Some folks will get hammered with sleet if you’re into that kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 ICON looks warmer than 00Z for our area so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 ICON is no Bueno south of VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: ICON is no Bueno south of VA. Sounds and looks about right. More NC misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: ICON is no Bueno south of VA. Looks right "climoish" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: ICON is no Bueno south of VA. Perfect track rainstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Well, that ICON run sucked. Anyone notice that whenever we have a big run a week out like the happy hour GFS yesterday everything starts trending in the wrong direction? Yesterday's trends were good overall, and then after that GFS run everything went the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Icon has been too warm with CAD all winter and the CMC is too cold. Split the difference and it’s a nasty ice event between I-85 and middle VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It's the Icon. While I'd like all of the models to show a big winter storm for NC, I'm not terribly concerned at this point as long as the consensus and especially the Euro keeps us in the cold air. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Like three days before the last snow event the ICON had no precip impacting the Gulf coast, it's pretty much useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 ICON brings the storm in early Wednesday morning. It’s 10 hours ahead of the Euro. There’s your difference. If it slows down, we’re in the winter weather 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sinterpol Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 How many days out were we during the last storm when the models looked like shit and everyone started throwing in the towel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z ICON was very weak with limited moisture but apparently that's one of its cons. I wouldn't put to much stock into the icon. Just fun to look at . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Not saying it's wrong this time (a clock is right twice/day), but I wouldn't put any credence in that chitty icon model. It's horrible in general. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, sinterpol said: How many days out were we during the last storm when the models looked like shit and everyone started throwing in the towel? Now, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro AI had an interesting 6z evolution. More of a slider type of system but idk given the jet if I buy that. It’s an outlier at this point but something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 To beat the dead horse, the ICON looks way different at H5 than the other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The GFS so far is a bit slower and a bit more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 GFS is pretty weak and disorganized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS is mostly rain south of VA, too. This feels like it's turning into how the last storm played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS was ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Theres basically no moisture west of CLT and Winston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS is pretty weak and disorganized No phasing, very different than the Euro. The second wave gets left behind as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Some ice for northern NC. We're going the wrong direction ever since that happy hour GFS run was so good yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Were only 5 days out now. The GFS and Euro are pretty far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Canadian looks more amped and warmer in NC ahead of the system compared to 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS was a strung out mess. It misses the NS energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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