Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,729
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SunAndRainbowsNC
    Newest Member
    SunAndRainbowsNC
    Joined

Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
 Share

Recommended Posts

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The storm you may be getting could very well be a plain rainstorm per model trends. A strung out mess would be far more interesting to me (like 12Z Icon actually) at this stage than an amped up too far north rainstorm.

 It is what it is. It is already predetermined what will occur but the models aren’t smart enough to know, which makes for interesting drama. I’d hate for the models to know in advance. Then there’s be nothing to discuss and debate forecasting wise.

Yeah that's definitely on the table. I think it was Eric Webb that was saying this setup is sort of big amped up storm, or squashed all the way into the Gulf, with very little in between. And when it comes down to those two scenarios, well we are unfortunately forced into a my backyard contest. Something like the Icon just means sunny, cold, and windy for me. While a GFS solution is close to a classic I-85N winter storm, with the admitted thermal risks. Just the unfortunate reality of the geographics of this board, systems that make us all happy are practically once in a lifetime events.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Yeah that's definitely on the table. I think it was Eric Webb that was saying this setup is sort of big amped up storm, or squashed all the way into the Gulf, with very little in between. And when it comes down to those two scenarios, well we are unfortunately forced into a my backyard contest. Something like the Icon just means sunny, cold, and windy for me. While a GFS solution is close to a classic I-85N winter storm, with the admitted thermal risks. Just the unfortunate reality of the geographics of this board, systems that make us all happy are practically once in a lifetime events.

 Here’s the mean SLP location of the lows having produced major Atlanta snow or sleet: crosses north central FL near an Ocala to St. Augustine line….so a “Southern Slider”. Also, note that the SLP mean anomaly isn’t overly strong….more about that later. Actually the mean anomaly of the Plains high is stronger per this map. Amped up lows (the Storm of the Century notwithstanding) usually aren’t good for ATL to AHN due to too much warm air being introduced and often a too far NW path associated with them. So, when you get amped up storms, they’re usually rainstorms.

IMG_1516.gif.142dbc907341307eed7ca414b9eb61af.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Yeah that's definitely on the table. I think it was Eric Webb that was saying this setup is sort of big amped up storm, or squashed all the way into the Gulf, with very little in between. And when it comes down to those two scenarios, well we are unfortunately forced into a my backyard contest. Something like the Icon just means sunny, cold, and windy for me. While a GFS solution is close to a classic I-85N winter storm, with the admitted thermal risks. Just the unfortunate reality of the geographics of this board, systems that make us all happy are practically once in a lifetime events.

More on average strength of Miller A lows causing major Atlanta snow or sleet, which is a rather modest 1008 mb

Complete list of major 32 ATL SN/IP caused by Miller A's: estimate of lowest SLP while in GoM/near Gulf coast (other 7 weren't Miller A) (sub 1000 bolded)

 

2/12-13/14: 1003

1/9-10/11: 1008

2/12/10: 997

1/2-3/02: 1007

3/13/93: 976

1/18/92: 1011

1/7/88: 1018

1/22/87: 998

3/24/83: 1002

1/12-13/82: 1007

2/17-18/79: 1018

3/11/1960 1011

2/15/1958 1001

2/26/1952 1004

3/2/1942 1002

1/23/1940 1006

1/29-30/1936 1009

3/14/1924 1000

12/11-13/1917 1020

1/28/1904 1017

2/23/1901 1012

2/11-12/1899 1017

2/15-16/1895 1017

2/11-12/1895 1012

12/24-5/1894 1020 (barely discernible)

1/18-19/1893 1008

12/3-6/1886 1013

2/12-15/1885 1005

1/23/1885 1003
1/7-8/1884 1010

12/29/1880 1009

1/1/1877 1003

 

 

In ascending order of SLP: median/mean are 1008; only 3 of 32 sub 1000!

976

997

998

1000

1001

1002

1002

1003

1003

1003

1004

1005

1006

1007

1007

1008

1008

1009

1009

1010

1011

1011

1012

1012

1013

1017

1017

1017

1018

1018

1020

1020

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Enjoy the cold while we have it because the Euro Weeklies, which have done very well overall recently (with the current cold that followed the prior warmth…all well predicted), today have it pretty mild throughout most of the lower 48 states Feb 3-16. Also, La Niña Febs are more often than not on the mild side.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, GaWx said:

 Enjoy the cold while we have it because the Euro Weeklies, which have done very well overall recently (with the current cold that followed the prior warmth…all well predicted), today have it pretty mild throughout most of the lower 48 states Feb 3-16.

The Weeklies were just saying it was going to be -20 below average all next week right? They are about as useful as the 84 hour NAM

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Disagree 1
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The Weeklies were just saying it was going to be -20 below average all next week right? They are about as useful as the 84 hour NAM

 They never said it was going to be 20 BN  all next week. They had 1-2 days that cold (in and near 1/10-11). Their coldest Jan 6-12 run is this one (see below), which had mainly 12-15 BN in the SE. My point is that the Weeklies called for a cold period that week going back to forecasts issued 3 weeks ago after they had warmth in late Dec, which verified well. We’ll see how cold Jan 6-12 actually ends up being, of course, but it still looks solidly BN. Jan 10-11 are looking to come in less cold per recent trends but still solidly BN.

 It makes perfect sense to warm up a lot then per MJO, La Niña history, and indices’ trends looking well ahead. 

IMG_1352.thumb.webp.253cdb665a2d1d91419c94af181b85a0.webp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 They never said it was going to be 20 BN  all next week. They had 1-2 days that cold. Their coldest Jan 6-12 run is this one (see below), which had mainly 12-15 BN in the SE. My point is that the Weeklies called for a cold period that week going back to forecasts issued 3 weeks ago after they had warmth in late Dec, which verified well. We’ll see how cold Jan 6-12 actually ends up being, of course, but it still looks solidly BN.

 It makes perfect sense to warm up a lot then per MJO, La Niña history, and indices’ trends looking well ahead. 

IMG_1352.thumb.webp.253cdb665a2d1d91419c94af181b85a0.webp

I won't be surprised at a warm February because it is climo with La Ninas but I do not trust the Weeklies one bit. It was adamant about a cold pattern coming most of last winter that never happened. The next Weeklies could look the direct opposite. 

 

As far as next week is concerned, yes it will be below average but not to the degree it was showing. Monday will be about 70 in non CAD areas. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I won't be surprised at a warm February because it is climo with La Ninas but I do not trust the Weeklies one bit. It was adamant about a cold pattern coming most of last winter that never happened. The next Weeklies could look the direct opposite. 

 

As far as next week is concerned, yes it will be below average but not to the degree it was showing. Monday will be about 70 in non CAD areas. 

 I’d bet heavily that next week will be significantly colder than both 2/3-9 and 2/10-16 in the SE overall anomalywise. You should be happy because you don’t like cold unless it’s snowing and it usually isn’t snowing when cold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The weather nazi at KGSP NWS has spoken.  NO SNOW FOR YOU!!! :D

At this point, the chance for snow
east of the mountains is close to zero, despite what long term
guidance may have hinted at in past recent runs. Guidance has
temperatures during this time a few degrees below normal with
overnight temps dipping into the teens for the mountains and 20s
elsewhere. All in all, the extended is dry, cold, and snow-less.

&&
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...