Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:35 PM 1 minute ago, eyewall said: At this point in Raleigh I will treat it like Mobile, Alabama. It will be an absolute miracle if it does snow here at all. Feels more like Miami now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Friday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:36 PM 21 minutes ago, GaWx said: The storm you may be getting could very well be a plain rainstorm per model trends. A strung out mess would be far more interesting to me (like 12Z Icon actually) at this stage than an amped up too far north rainstorm. It is what it is. It is already predetermined what will occur but the models aren’t smart enough to know, which makes for interesting drama. I’d hate for the models to know in advance. Then there’s be nothing to discuss and debate forecasting wise. Yeah that's definitely on the table. I think it was Eric Webb that was saying this setup is sort of big amped up storm, or squashed all the way into the Gulf, with very little in between. And when it comes down to those two scenarios, well we are unfortunately forced into a my backyard contest. Something like the Icon just means sunny, cold, and windy for me. While a GFS solution is close to a classic I-85N winter storm, with the admitted thermal risks. Just the unfortunate reality of the geographics of this board, systems that make us all happy are practically once in a lifetime events. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:47 PM 16 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Yikes. Don’t look at the EPS. Just pretend it didn’t 100% back the OP. 12Z EPS through Jan 11th: notable snow for good portion of area on only ~10 (20%) of members: enough to keep hope alive? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:49 PM I take it the EURO didn’t work out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:50 PM 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: I take it the EURO didn’t work out 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:05 PM . 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:21 PM Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:24 PM 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Better than nothing. Definitely an improvement on the CMC ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:38 PM 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: Yeah that's definitely on the table. I think it was Eric Webb that was saying this setup is sort of big amped up storm, or squashed all the way into the Gulf, with very little in between. And when it comes down to those two scenarios, well we are unfortunately forced into a my backyard contest. Something like the Icon just means sunny, cold, and windy for me. While a GFS solution is close to a classic I-85N winter storm, with the admitted thermal risks. Just the unfortunate reality of the geographics of this board, systems that make us all happy are practically once in a lifetime events. Here’s the mean SLP location of the lows having produced major Atlanta snow or sleet: crosses north central FL near an Ocala to St. Augustine line….so a “Southern Slider”. Also, note that the SLP mean anomaly isn’t overly strong….more about that later. Actually the mean anomaly of the Plains high is stronger per this map. Amped up lows (the Storm of the Century notwithstanding) usually aren’t good for ATL to AHN due to too much warm air being introduced and often a too far NW path associated with them. So, when you get amped up storms, they’re usually rainstorms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Friday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:44 PM Though nothing to write home about that EPS run was actually a small improvement from 0z. We've really just sort of waffled back and forth with the handling of the baja/northern stream interaction over the last 48 hours or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:48 PM CFS has some mixing here Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:50 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 08:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:05 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:13 PM 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: Yeah that's definitely on the table. I think it was Eric Webb that was saying this setup is sort of big amped up storm, or squashed all the way into the Gulf, with very little in between. And when it comes down to those two scenarios, well we are unfortunately forced into a my backyard contest. Something like the Icon just means sunny, cold, and windy for me. While a GFS solution is close to a classic I-85N winter storm, with the admitted thermal risks. Just the unfortunate reality of the geographics of this board, systems that make us all happy are practically once in a lifetime events. More on average strength of Miller A lows causing major Atlanta snow or sleet, which is a rather modest 1008 mb Complete list of major 32 ATL SN/IP caused by Miller A's: estimate of lowest SLP while in GoM/near Gulf coast (other 7 weren't Miller A) (sub 1000 bolded) 2/12-13/14: 1003 1/9-10/11: 1008 2/12/10: 997 1/2-3/02: 1007 3/13/93: 976 1/18/92: 1011 1/7/88: 1018 1/22/87: 998 3/24/83: 1002 1/12-13/82: 1007 2/17-18/79: 1018 3/11/1960 1011 2/15/1958 1001 2/26/1952 1004 3/2/1942 1002 1/23/1940 1006 1/29-30/1936 1009 3/14/1924 1000 12/11-13/1917 1020 1/28/1904 1017 2/23/1901 1012 2/11-12/1899 1017 2/15-16/1895 1017 2/11-12/1895 1012 12/24-5/1894 1020 (barely discernible) 1/18-19/1893 1008 12/3-6/1886 1013 2/12-15/1885 1005 1/23/1885 1003 1/7-8/1884 1010 12/29/1880 1009 1/1/1877 1003 In ascending order of SLP: median/mean are 1008; only 3 of 32 sub 1000! 976 997 998 1000 1001 1002 1002 1003 1003 1003 1004 1005 1006 1007 1007 1008 1008 1009 1009 1010 1011 1011 1012 1012 1013 1017 1017 1017 1018 1018 1020 1020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:22 PM 33 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: CFS has some mixing here Monday. The absurdity of using the CFS for precip type has me tickled 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 08:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:29 PM 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The absurdity of using the CFS for precip type has me tickled I'm looking for anything positive at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:46 PM Enjoy the cold while we have it because the Euro Weeklies, which have done very well overall recently (with the current cold that followed the prior warmth…all well predicted), today have it pretty mild throughout most of the lower 48 states Feb 3-16. Also, La Niña Febs are more often than not on the mild side. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 08:48 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:48 PM Just now, GaWx said: Enjoy the cold while we have it because the Euro Weeklies, which have done very well overall recently (with the current cold that followed the prior warmth…all well predicted), today have it pretty mild throughout most of the lower 48 states Feb 3-16. The Weeklies were just saying it was going to be -20 below average all next week right? They are about as useful as the 84 hour NAM 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:56 PM 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The Weeklies were just saying it was going to be -20 below average all next week right? They are about as useful as the 84 hour NAM They never said it was going to be 20 BN all next week. They had 1-2 days that cold (in and near 1/10-11). Their coldest Jan 6-12 run is this one (see below), which had mainly 12-15 BN in the SE. My point is that the Weeklies called for a cold period that week going back to forecasts issued 3 weeks ago after they had warmth in late Dec, which verified well. We’ll see how cold Jan 6-12 actually ends up being, of course, but it still looks solidly BN. Jan 10-11 are looking to come in less cold per recent trends but still solidly BN. It makes perfect sense to warm up a lot then per MJO, La Niña history, and indices’ trends looking well ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 09:01 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:01 PM 1 minute ago, GaWx said: They never said it was going to be 20 BN all next week. They had 1-2 days that cold. Their coldest Jan 6-12 run is this one (see below), which had mainly 12-15 BN in the SE. My point is that the Weeklies called for a cold period that week going back to forecasts issued 3 weeks ago after they had warmth in late Dec, which verified well. We’ll see how cold Jan 6-12 actually ends up being, of course, but it still looks solidly BN. It makes perfect sense to warm up a lot then per MJO, La Niña history, and indices’ trends looking well ahead. I won't be surprised at a warm February because it is climo with La Ninas but I do not trust the Weeklies one bit. It was adamant about a cold pattern coming most of last winter that never happened. The next Weeklies could look the direct opposite. As far as next week is concerned, yes it will be below average but not to the degree it was showing. Monday will be about 70 in non CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 09:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:04 PM 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I won't be surprised at a warm February because it is climo with La Ninas but I do not trust the Weeklies one bit. It was adamant about a cold pattern coming most of last winter that never happened. The next Weeklies could look the direct opposite. As far as next week is concerned, yes it will be below average but not to the degree it was showing. Monday will be about 70 in non CAD areas. I’d bet heavily that next week will be significantly colder than both 2/3-9 and 2/10-16 in the SE overall anomalywise. You should be happy because you don’t like cold unless it’s snowing and it usually isn’t snowing when cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 09:06 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:06 PM 1 minute ago, GaWx said: I’d bet heavily that next week will be significantly colder than both 2/3-9 and 2/10-16 in the SE overall anomalywise. I never said it wouldn't be. But as you know cold doesn't equal snow and it looks unlikely next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 09:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:06 PM Just now, wncsnow said: I never said it wouldn't be. But as you know cold doesn't equal snow and it looks unlikely next week. See my edited post. I said the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 09:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:20 PM 12Z Euro AI is much drier as it has only a weak disturbance vs the well developed lows on recent runs: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:27 PM 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro AI is much drier as it has only a weak disturbance vs the well developed lows on recent runs: worthless model. I havent seen one run that is consistent with the next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 09:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:29 PM 3 minutes ago, Ji said: worthless model. I havent seen one run that is consistent with the next The last several consistently had an organized Gulf low with heavy precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:34 PM All the models are trash. Amazing I can type a prompt into AI to create a Monet painting or a fire breathing troll but I can’t know if it’ll snow in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted Friday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:48 PM 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: I'm looking for anything positive at this point. Good too see you back Brick 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Friday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:12 PM The weather nazi at KGSP NWS has spoken. NO SNOW FOR YOU!!! At this point, the chance for snow east of the mountains is close to zero, despite what long term guidance may have hinted at in past recent runs. Guidance has temperatures during this time a few degrees below normal with overnight temps dipping into the teens for the mountains and 20s elsewhere. All in all, the extended is dry, cold, and snow-less. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:13 PM 18Z GFS through 129: nothing noteworthy. Slightly colder push. Maybe will be colder when precip finally arrives in SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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