suzook Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: Ensembles look better than the ops, but worried this is going to end up like the system we have had here the last two days. I can't stand anymore cold rain. Agreed. Would rather have an early warm wet spring. The cold rain is complete shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 We’re at day 7 we couldn’t trust it if we were in the bullseye right now. Euro and UK are concerning, they don’t get it done with the cold. Thankfully eps and GEFS are colder than their ops. I’d hug ensembles at this range, also ensembles seem to be in fairly good agreement across suites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 20 minutes ago, suzook said: Agreed. Would rather have an early warm wet spring. The cold rain is complete shit. Upside of getting through all the cold damp nonsense in late Feb is it makes a warm March more likely. Time to get things blooming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6z Euro looked much improved up top and seemed to be setting up further south less amped and colder… Markedly different than 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Y’all are underselling the AI model… that’s about as cold as look as we can get for the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Y’all are underselling the AI model… that’s about as cold as look as we can get for the storm. I feel like it has a bias for strong phased storms that track south of Guidance, which happens to be exactly what we need 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I feel like it has a bias for strong phased storms that track south of Guidance, which happens to be exactly what we need It hasn’t been very accurate of late with a couple recent systems but it has been very similar to EPS with this upcoming storm. Maybe a blind squirrel will find a nut this time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Does anyone have the 6z CMC ? Can't remember if it's in range yet or not, but not easily found with a Google search Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 28 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Does anyone have the 6z CMC ? Can't remember if it's in range yet or not, but not easily found with a Google search https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Let's see if the old wives tale holds up for next week. Had several rounds of thunder and lightning last night about midnight, several people I've talked to this morning in person said it's going to snow within a week. I think it's funny how some folks predict their weather, we shall see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: @BornAgain13sitting pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 32 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Let's see if the old wives tale holds up for next week. Had several rounds of thunder and lightning last night about midnight, several people I've talked to this morning in person said it's going to snow within a week. I think it's funny how some folks predict their weather, we shall see. The only wives tale or old school logic I 100% believe in, is to watch the animals. If we get to Sunday-Tuesday and they start acting odd, usually something is coming. Before the sleet fest in mid Jan, the deer, geese, crows and herons were working overtime to eat. Saw way more wildlife activity than normal in the 3 days leading up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 ICON is cooking. Mixed precip in North Central Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 ICON has some snow in central NC at 156. Mixing at 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Tons of freezing rain from Wake to the coast on the ICON at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Then back to snow for most of NC at 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 That is a high impact event all the way up the eastern seaboard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 ICON drops the hammer up this way. Over a foot of Snow and over 2 feet eastern VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 ICON a little different from earlier…. Huge storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 That's like a classic winter storm of old for here, with a little bit of everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 38" per ICON in eastern VA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Every model has now thrown out at least 1 weenie solution for this system lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The morning GFS run wasn't far off from something like that, just needs to slow down and phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Whether it amps too much and becomes rain or not, idk, but that southern jet screams major storm as opposed to anything weak and suppressed. Gut says classic I85N event but I could still see this trending to Kentucky/Middle VA north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: The morning GFS run wasn't far off from something like that, just needs to slow down and phase Icon really slowed down. That’s going to be our key here. It’s starting to seem simple how we get a big storm. As for track, small differences matter. ICON rides the coast, mixed bag for us. I don’t care about that at this point. Give me a slowed down, phased storm that can actually play with what looks like a primo airmass, worry about specifics later 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Whether it amps too much and becomes rain or not, idk, but that southern jet screams major storm as opposed to anything weak and suppressed. Gut says classic I85N event but I could still see this trending to Kentucky/Middle VA north. I may be wrong, but amped might be better here given the airmass north of the storm. Assuming amped doesn’t bring it inland, the more amped solutions seem to be pulling cold air in more efficiently vs the strung out solutions. All I’ll say about the southern jet and I’ve been saying this for a few days, this is a big dog pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 31 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The only wives tale or old school logic I 100% believe in, is to watch the animals. If we get to Sunday-Tuesday and they start acting odd, usually something is coming. Before the sleet fest in mid Jan, the deer, geese, crows and herons were working overtime to eat. Saw way more wildlife activity than normal in the 3 days leading up. I totally agree, mother nature knows when things are getting ready to change drastically. The animals have to prepare for survival purposes, it makes perfect sense that they can tell. During the January 11th storm I noticed a few days prior to the storm the squirrels and rabbits and birds everything was on the move. I might even watch the grocery stores, people do the same thing we rush and buy all the bread. Maybe that's the best indicator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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