Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

GFS still focuses mostly on the first wave which is rain for most of NC

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS is much improved at H5 and much colder. Also seems like it brings back the second wave idea. So far a much better run up above 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS still focuses mostly on the first wave which is rain for most of NC

Agreed, but there were some positive changes as well. Slightly slower, stronger HP and better ridging north of us. Leads to a colder solution. It also hangs some energy back, which could be the way we get a storm here. Not an awesome run but not a total disaster like 18z

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Agreed, but there were some positive changes as well. Slightly slower, stronger HP and better ridging north of us. Leads to a colder solution. It also hangs some energy back, which could be the way we get a storm here. Not an awesome run but not a total disaster like 18z

We really need a more consolidated system which can wrap up and bring the cold air down with it. Some models have hinted at this. The Canadian shows wave 1 and a trailing wave too but it's a late bloomer and ends up being a mix for most and hammers Virginia again. Guess it's Virginia is for snowlovers now. 

[WXNewton]

CMC is a pretty significant winter storm. Lots of sleet and zr for most of NC and cold.

[BornAgain13]

Cmc is a Snow event for VA with ICE for NC/SC 

[NorthHillsWx]

CMC is an epic sleet bomb for a lot on NC and then turns into a nor easter and big storm for MA

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We really need a more consolidated system which can wrap up and bring the cold air down with it. Some models have hinted at this. The Canadian shows wave 1 and a trailing wave too but it's a late bloomer and ends up being a mix for most and hammers Virginia again. Guess it's Virginia is for snowlovers now. 

Agreed. A strung out mess isn’t going to do it. Canadian and Euro are what we want. Gfs from last night developed the second wave, kind of like the Canadian is doing

[Brick Tamland]

Solutions are still all over the place with the models right now. 

[GaWx]

 So, 1st 3 major 0Z runs (Icon, GFS, CMC) all have a low to mid 1050s high plunging down Feb 16th-18th bringing down absolutely frigid mid -30s 850s into ND/MN (nearly as cold as the plunge of Jan 19-20) thanks to the tale end of a -5 AO steered by a strong +PNA during moderate MJO 8. This is a very rare setup in mid Feb, especially in La Niña. We should be very thankful for having this opportunity.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 So, 1st 3 major 0Z runs (Icon, GFS, CMC) all have a low to mid 1050s high plunging down Feb 17th-18th bringing down absolutely frigid mid -30s 850s into ND/MN (nearly as cold as the plunge of Jan 19-20) thanks to the tale end of a -5 AO steered by a strong +PNA during moderate MJO 8. This is a very rare setup in mid Feb, especially in La Niña. We should be very thankful for having this opportunity.

Agreed this is a beautiful setup. Especially in a Nina. This one will sting if we don’t capitalize because this is a major winter storm pattern and given the timing it is very likely our last chance this year.

[NorthHillsWx]

12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Solutions are still all over the place with the models right now. 

I still feel pretty good. The overall setup looks great and the storm is still showing. 7-8 days out that’s where we want to be. Definitely want to see a slower more consolidated storm start to show but euro and Canadian are showing that and GFS took baby steps that direction this evening 

[BornAgain13]

Few of the models are trying to bring more ice up this way Saturday and has trended with more ZR... will have to watch that closely. Tons of trees have fallen throughout the county so far. 

[WXNewton]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Few of the models are trying to bring more ice up this way Saturday and has trended with more ZR... will have to watch that closely. Tons of trees have fallen throughout the county so far. 

The trend on the RGEM shows it could be a little icy to start Saturday morning.

[WXNewton]

For what it is worth, the 18z Euro AI has the storm too. Looks cold enough for most of the state and has higher precip amounts further east than west. Also, does a transfer of moisture from the west to the east and leaves parts of the Piedmont area with a precip minimum.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Agreed this is a beautiful setup. Especially in a Nina. This one will sting if we don’t capitalize because this is a major winter storm pattern and given the timing it is very likely our last chance this year.

 When I see the model consensus giving St. Louis a good shot at getting <0F for lows and barely above +10 for highs and the airmass has a strong +PNA to steer the bulk of the airmass down quite far but at the same time running into a moist WSW H5 flow (split flow), that combo is usually a good benchmark for good wintry mischief potential in the SE soon afterward.

[WXNewton]

GEFS is going to bump totals up nicely when compared to the previous run. Really wants to bring in a second storm, looks like a decent signal at this point. 

[BornAgain13]

0z GEFS with an improvement vs 18z

[GaWx]

0Z Euro Barney going crazy! Some of this is as cold as 53 BN with most of this pink area colder than 40 BN!! Matches near gasoline!

[GaWx]

0Z Euro far inland track that can’t take full advantage of the Barney cold. Will there be a 2nd wave? No. Not a good run for SE snow/sleetlovers. But something for the ZR lovers in NW NC. Is this a viable solution? Of course it is, especially in a La Niña. But the Euro will very likely have big changes between runs for next few days as this threat is still 6-7 days out and we have an atypical for La Niña mid Feb very strong -AO/strong +PNA combo on the way along with a 1050s Arctic high set to plunge into the Plains 2/16-18 accompanied by -30s 850s and coldest temps likely going <0 into St. Louis.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET is coming in well inland unfortunately for SE snow lovers.

[GaWx]

1. 0Z EPS appears to look better than 12Z although it looks like it is stuck on hour 168 at WB/Pivotal.

2. 18Z Mogreps (UK ensemble) looks pretty good with the offshore track of the low. What a big contrast of that with the 0Z UKMET/Euro ops!

Edit: 3. 0Z Mogreps doesn’t look as good as 18Z with mean low track not as far offshore and thus not as cold over the SE.

[GaWx]

0Z EPS has finally resumed. It does have more snow (10:1) in NC, N SC, and N GA than recent runs:

[WXNewton]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z EPS has finally resumed. It does have more snow (10:1) in NC, N SC, and N GA than recent runs:

Looks like a good bump up.

[WXNewton]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z EPS has finally resumed. It does have more snow (10:1) in NC, N SC, and N GA than recent runs:

Looks like a good bump up.

[WiseWeather]

I would like to return the snleet storm from early january and get my 19 inches back from yesterdays 0z.


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