TullyHeel Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS was a mixed bag for sure for next weekend. Sleet, freezing rain, rain and a little snow. Would like to see it coming in colder for more snow, but the big thing this far out is it is showing a storm. Still a long ways to figure out what type of precip we will get. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Phase on the UK at 156 and coming northeast,big jump on that model it had nothing last run . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Just now, NC_hailstorm said: Phase on the UK at 156 and coming northeast,big jump on that model it had nothing last run . The UK is pretty solid. I haven't kept up with verification scores but it used to be above the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: GFS was a mixed bag for sure for next weekend. Sleet, freezing rain, rain and a little snow. Would like to see it coming in colder for more snow, but the big thing this far out is it is showing a storm. Still a long ways to figure out what type of precip we will get. Brick is back and will bring the mojo we need!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Storm is there on the UK, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm not gonna overly fuss about p-types until we actually have a storm in hi-res model range. Right now close is close enough for me. Let's actually get that snow pack on the ground to our north, and see how the models adjust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The UK is pretty solid. I haven't kept up with verification scores but it used to be above the GFS. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/global/mrw/acc_31days/ 2nd behind the King,but to be honest all the models are scoring low the last 5 or 6 days overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12Z GEFS through 1/11 despite the more suppressed surface low mean vs the GFS is still not good as it is similar to the meager 6Z: cold air is lacking meaning easier to get plain rain if any precip.; runs of recent days had 5-10 times this much snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Could be a band of snow or mix across WNC system 1 before it warms up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12Z Euro has hardly any snow over most of SE through 234: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 49 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The UK is getting close for northern NC for system 1. It has trended south each run... Can we actually trust it or is it a long shot? Euro isn’t overly far off either with a couple corrections in all reality.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro much slower with the closed low. Bottom line is that until the short wave that becomes the low actually comes into the US, is it a fruitless exercise to breathlessly post all the different models' solutions which will continue to fluctuate. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Block and 50/50 have trended weaker on the GFS. But admittedly, some of that weakening may be responsible for us having a storm at all and not a suppressed strung out mess. Gonna have to strike a balance between giving our wave room to amplify but not invite too much ridging in front of it wrecking thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12Z Euro once it finally gets precip in has rain in the SE due to a cutter Really bad trends continue on the consensus. Icon an exception. CMC cold but dry. UKMET if projected ahead was likely going to be too warm most places due to projected too far N track of low and warming thicknesses ahead of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 LOL. An Apps cutter on the Euro. I’m so over this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Great Lakes low. Would it kill us to ever see a high up north? What’s nuts is how easy it is to get CAD in theory. Quite literally any moderately decent high from Iowa to New England could get us across the finish line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Well we can have BN temps and AN precip...just not at the same time. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Great Lakes low. Would it kill us to ever see a high up north? What’s nuts is how easy it is to get CAD in theory. Quite literally any moderately decent high from Iowa to New England could get us across the finish line. CAD is nothing but a pipe dream these days. If we get another cutter after the one Sunday, I'm done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 And where is all the blocking? The flow seems too progressive and fast to me almost like a typical Pacific driven flow.. 23 one morning and raining a day later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Block and 50/50 have trended weaker on the GFS. But admittedly, some of that weakening may be responsible for us having a storm at all and not a suppressed strung out mess. Gonna have to strike a balance between giving our wave room to amplify but not invite too much ridging in front of it wrecking thermals. The storm you may be getting could very well be a plain rainstorm per model trends. A strung out mess would be far more interesting to me (like 12Z Icon actually) at this stage than an amped up too far north rainstorm. It is what it is. It is already predetermined what will occur but the models aren’t smart enough to know, which makes for interesting drama. I’d hate for the models to know in advance. Then there’s be nothing to discuss and debate forecasting wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: And where is all the blocking? The flow seems too progressive and fast to me almost like a typical Pacific driven flow.. 23 one morning and raining a day later. Storm aside, it really is wild to see how much the pattern advertised has devolved into such a mess. Cold, sure, but just slightly below average January cold. That’s not enough anymore outside of the mountains. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 We need the storm to move quicker instead of wait to eject. If its faster there appears to be more cold air around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: We need the storm to move quicker instead of wait to eject. If it’s faster there appears to be more cold air around. Yep and I won’t give up hope until it’s onshore. We still have a lot to work out in the coming days and no doubt, 18z will show something wildly different. We’re still very much in windshield wiper territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: We need the storm to move quicker instead of wait to eject. If it’s faster there appears to be more cold air around. Agreed. But not looking good for most of the SE as of recent trends. Next week could very well be a big nothing-burger. But still it is early enough for a reversal. Icon, a good model, gives me hope. But if a nothing burger, we’ll survive just fine and we’ll have this to laugh about in the future. Irony is that you were about the most negative originally and could turn out spot on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 23 minutes ago, GaWx said: The storm you may be getting could very well be a plain rainstorm per model trends. A strung out mess would be far more interesting to me (like 12Z Icon actually) at this stage than an amped up too far north rainstorm. It is what it is. It is already predetermined what will occur but the models aren’t smart enough to know, which makes for interesting drama. I’d hate for the models to know in advance. Then there’s be nothing to discuss and debate forecasting wise. It is just annoying when we haven't had any measurable snow here the last 3 years to see great model runs 10 days out to not end up coming to fruition. I know we can't ever count on the models that far out or even 5 to 7 days out sometimes. But it is still annoying when it happens when it has been that long without snow. I'd rather have nothing show up more than 7 days out and instead just have something pop up inside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: Agreed. But not looking good for most of the SE as of recent trends. Next week could very well be a big nothing-burger. But still it is early enough for a reversal. Icon, a good model, gives me hope. But if a nothing burger, we’ll survive just fine and we’ll have this to laugh about in the future. Irony is that you were about the most negative originally and could turn out spot on! Unfortunately my negativity about wintry weather is usually correct. I wish I was wrong this time, and maybe I still am. But it begs the question, would you rather be right or happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 My weenie take is the Monday system ended up speeding up significantly on models, so maybe the same will hold for the next system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I personally actually have a good feeling about system #2. I keep reminding myself the tendency for the euro to bury things in the southwest and not eject them properly. When I say good I mean like 3-6” type deal I’d be beyond happy about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Yikes. Don’t look at the EPS. Just pretend it didn’t 100% back the OP. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 At this point in Raleigh I will treat it like Mobile, Alabama. It will be an absolute miracle if it does snow here at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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