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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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  On 2/12/2025 at 12:09 PM, olafminesaw said:
Brick couldn't quite reel in the brick storm to everyone's satisfaction, this one is all Barney, work your magic anthropomorphized dinosaur 
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gfs_T2ma_us_36.thumb.png.afdcfee5f21e752f4c34c87bea7aa048.png

This might be the first time since i was a kid watching Pokémon that i strongly believe that there needed to be a seizure warning on something.


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  On 2/12/2025 at 2:25 PM, olafminesaw said:

Does anyone have any examples of big snow storms in late February in a LA Nina year?

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RDU La Niña 4”+ snows Feb 15-28:

2/16/1996: 5.6”

2/23-4/1989: 4.2”

2/17-8/1989: 4.9”

2/25/1894: 5.0”


GSO had 5.7” just after Feb (3/1-2/2009). Also, other areas like ATL and Athens had a big snow 3/1/2009.

 

Athens, GA:

2/23/1989: 4.6”

2/24-5/1894 (this also hit ATL)

 

 So, 2009 (Mar 1-2), 1996, 1989, and 1894 had major SE snowstorms Feb 15th-Mar 2nd in La Niña in SE US.

RDU had 2 big snows later in Mar in La Niña: 3/10/1934: 8.0” and 3/25-26/1971: 5.3”

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  On 2/12/2025 at 3:48 PM, GaWx said:

RDU La Niña 4”+ snows Feb 15-28:

2/16/1996: 5.6”

2/23-4/1989: 4.2”

2/17-8/1989: 4.9”

2/25/1894: 5.0”


GSO had 5.7” just after Feb (3/1-2/2009). Also, other areas like ATL and Athens had a big snow 3/1/2009.

 

Athens, GA:

2/23/1989: 4.6”

2/24-5/1894

 

 So, 2009 (Mar 1-2), 1996, 1989, and 1894 had major snowstorms Feb 15th-Mar 2nd in La Niña in SE US.

RDU had 2 big snows later in Mar in La Niña: 3/10/1934: 8.0” and 3/25-26/1971: 5.3”

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Inconclusive indicies related to those periods, not really what I would expect. Could be obscured in the period by a short period of chance on the indicies, which is not reflected in February's average. I also wonder how rare it is to get +PNA, -NAO, -AO in a la Nina year. We probably don't have a very good analog pattern.

2009 AO -, PNA -, NAO neutral

1996 AO neutral , PNA -, NAO neutral

1989 AO +, PNA -, NAO positive

 

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  On 2/12/2025 at 4:11 PM, olafminesaw said:

Inconclusive indicies related to those periods, not really what I would expect. Could be obscured in the period by a short period of chance on the indicies, which is not reflected in February's average. I also wonder how rare it is to get +PNA, -NAO, -AO in a la Nina year. We probably don't have a very good analog pattern.

2009 AO -, PNA -, NAO neutral

1996 AO neutral , PNA -, NAO neutral

1989 AO +, PNA -, NAO positive

 

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Going back to 1950, I couldn’t find a single La Niña Feb out of the 26 of them that had both a +PNA and a -AO! So, 2025 will end up quite unique in that regard.

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