Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

I can see the Facebook meteorologist hype train rolling now 

[NorthHillsWx]

We’re talking low 20’s and heavy snow in central NC in late February. Dream run, still snowing 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That might be the biggest weenie run of the GFS all winter for a lot of folks 

In addition to the snow on the 0Z GFS, check out the sleet and ZR:

[WiseWeather]

If you were wondering… yes i will take 19 inches of snow.


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[wncsnow]

Just now, wncsnow said:

I can see the Facebook meteorologist hype train rolling now 

Almost 20 inches here. Me and @WNC_Fort will be building igloos in Old Fort 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, WiseWeather said:

If you were wondering… yes i will take 19 inches of snow.


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I too, will take my 21.3 and call it a season

[NorthHillsWx]

15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Incoming on GFS…

As I said 

[wncsnow]

Norfolk ends up with about 3 feet. No biggie 

[NC_hailstorm]

Looks like some light snow gets in here 171-180 but the GFS goes for that 2nd shortwave around 192-201 and blows it up.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

CMC with a very similar look…

[GaWx]

 It looks amazing for many in the SE and would be the biggest storm of the winter to date for most of NC/SC and far N GA. But always be wary about the favored NW trend, especially because this is still 8-9 days away. Any thoughts about that? Will the preceding potential -5 AO combined with a solid +PNA minimize any NW trend? Whereas Jan 10-11 had a typical NW trend, Jan 21-2 did not due to the massive Arctic high.

[WiseWeather]

Nobody tell brick this time. Last time he wished it to the coast.


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[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Nobody tell brick this time. Last time he wished it to the coast.


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Hopefully Brick is in bed. If he sees this before bed, a good night’s sleep for him may be in jeopardy. But I’d still be in favor of a 2nd Brick storm thread. So, he needs to get plenty of rest beforehand.

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It looks amazing for many in the SE and would be the biggest storm for most of NC/SC and far N GA. But always be wary about the favored NW trend, especially because this is still 8-9 days away. Any thoughts about that? Will the preceding potential -5 AO combined with a solid +PNA minimize any NW trend?

Always fear the NW trend but as depicted the high in the Midwest could not be better positioned and strengthening heights 1030+ north of us with a mid level flow that’s more sw/ne oriented, the chance this cuts would be minimal. That’s textbook cold air transport and really a classic miller A look. We need to watch the trend on model runs to keep building heights north of us to keep northerly progression limited. But that’s a textbook Carolina’s snowstorm setup. This pattern is SCREAMING a storm and now we can see the potential. Cold air transport always the #1 thing to look for and oh baby is it there

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS keeps central NC below freezing from 12z on the 19th through 18z on the 23rd. 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS keeps central NC below freezing from 12z on the 19th through 18z on the 23rd. 

The GFS rang?

[GaWx]

0Z CMC fwiw: much less cold Arctic high than GFS

 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z CMC fwiw: much further N than GFS

 

True but for D8, that’s very good agreement. And it’s way south from its 12z run… like way south

[GaWx]

The latest Euro Weeklies got even colder for these two weeks (what would be coldest last half of Feb since 2010 for many) with a strong +PNA/-AO to start with +PNA continuing and suggests a crazy Feb with a mainly mild 1st half and mainly cold 2nd half, something not seen since 1999 in much of the SE:

Feb 17-23

 

Feb 24-Mar 2:

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

True but for D8, that’s very good agreement. And it’s way south from its 12z run… like way south

I since edited my wording about the 0Z CMC because it is actually about as far SE as the 0Z GFS. The reason the CMC’s wintry precip is centered further NW is that it’s Arctic high isn’t as strong/cold.

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS mean (10:1) through Feb 21st

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

0Z GEFS mean (10:1) through Feb 21st

Not much agreement

[GaWx]

0Z Euro:

Similar position to GFS/CMC:

[wncsnow]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro:

Similar position to GFS/CMC:

Meh.

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Meh.

I think we’ll be tracking this for awhile am and currently thinking this has a good chance to be SE next significant threat. The progged extremely strong -AO just before along with solid +PNA gives me added confidence.

 0Z EPS 10:1 snow:

[GaWx]

Barney says hi boys and girls on the 0Z UKMET 168 (7PM EST on Feb 18th: frigid N Rockies/Plains to upper Midwest with 2m anomalies -32 to -45) and it’s plunging south thanks to the extreme -AO/strong +PNA combo; temps <0F all day into NE/IA and dropping with lobe of TPV; near coldest of winter to date some of that area and it’s coming SE!

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sfct_anom-imp&rh=2025021200&fh=168&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=

 It is 12-48 hours after this that is the timeframe for the model consensus’ SE storm threat.

[WiseWeather]

Well that was fun while it lasted :(


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[WXNewton]

Looks like overall the EPS increased totals in NC for the 20th-22nd timeframe when compared to previous runs. 

[PackGrad05]

At this point (8 days away), it's useless looking at specifics.  The pattern is there and that's all that matters.  

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro insists on a late bloomer. 6z GFS was suppressed with the main wave (snow for coast) and too warm on the initial wave, but still has the storm.