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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Most of the forum is buying pre emergent and garden flowers at Lowe’s right now. I think people will trickle back on here in the next couple days

How do you know where I am? Are you stalking me?:ph34r::D

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Ended up with 1" at my location. It was beautiful.  Took the kids on a snow chase to Lynchburg. It was snowing up their but then came back south about 10 miles and it was sleet.  Very sharp cut off

20250211_105241.jpg

Yeah I was going to chase but wasn't up for having to go all the way to central VA for anything decent lol.

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17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

yep looks like crap for now and probably will shift north into the Mid-Atlantic over time.

Problem all winter has been energy getting hung up too long. If it would just eject this would be a snowstorm. No reason to believe the winter trend will be fixed this time. Way to waste a 1044 mb banana high and active STJ!

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30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Big ice storm incoming 

12Z GFS: total ZR through day 10:

-much of this is not til day 9-10 and thus still pretty far out and therefore very highly subject to major changes obviously

-some of this over especially NW NC, far N NC, and in VA is from earlier storms….see 2nd image:

IMG_2834.thumb.png.4688dc5025ff82512289e0137680363f.png
 

This 2nd image is only for earlier storms. But that still means the first image’s heavy amounts in much of Triad to Charlotte area to upstate SC to NE GA are all from the day 9-10 storm.

IMG_2835.thumb.png.420901f34ecb77ef4be7e8d3295b51bf.png

 

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8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z GFS: total ZR through day 10:

-much of this is not til day 9-10 and thus still pretty far out and therefore very highly subject to major changes obviously

-some of this over especially NW NC, far N NC, and in VA is from earlier storms….see 2nd image:

IMG_2834.thumb.png.4688dc5025ff82512289e0137680363f.png
 

This 2nd image is only for earlier storms. But that still means the first image’s heavy amounts in much of Triad to Charlotte area to upstate SC to NE GA are all from the day 9-10 storm.

IMG_2835.thumb.png.420901f34ecb77ef4be7e8d3295b51bf.png

 

Sadly that is a classic wedge look for an ice storm. We better hope that we can get the energy to consolidate and eject earlier or this is a likely scenario given the cold coming and well positioned high

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 Today’s GEFS based AO forecast is even more impressive for 2/15-18 as it suggests a dip to ~-5 is quite possible then! That would be lowest daily AO since 2/10-11/2021! Other Feb sub -5 AOs since 1950 were only these:

-2/10-11/2021 (-5.285 on 2/10) (weak +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/14/2010 (-5.132) (moderate +PNA, MJO moderate 8)

-2/6-7/2010 (-5.205 on 2/6) (strong +PNA, MJO moderate 7)

-2/5-6/1978 (-5.291 on 2/5, lowest Feb AO on record) (strong +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/13-16/1969 (-5.282 on 2/13)(neutral PNA, MJO unknown)

IMG_2843.thumb.png.d81620a0122bdf0be55f3effbbbd9af4.png
 

At the same time the PNA could be nearing +1:

IMG_2842.thumb.png.54b09deede35018a8ed45e4846a3f8e3.png

 

At same time, MJO could be in moderate phase  8:

 

IMG_2845.png

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3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s GEFS based AO forecast is even more impressive for 2/15-18 as it suggests a dip to ~-5 is quite possible then! That would be lowest daily AO since 2/10-11/2021! Other Feb sub -5 AOs since 1950 were only these:

-2/10-11/2021 (-5.285 on 2/10) (weak +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/14/2010 (-5.132) (moderate +PNA, MJO moderate 8)

-2/6-7/2010 (-5.205 on 2/6) (strong +PNA, MJO moderate 7)

-2/5-6/1978 (-5.291 on 2/5, lowest Feb AO on record) (strong +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/13-16/1969 (-5.282 on 2/13)(neutral PNA, MJO unknown)

IMG_2843.thumb.png.d81620a0122bdf0be55f3effbbbd9af4.png
 

At the same time the PNA could be nearing +1:

IMG_2842.thumb.png.54b09deede35018a8ed45e4846a3f8e3.png

 

At same time, MJO could be in moderate phase  8:

 

IMG_2845.png

Stop it, I can only get so aroused 

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3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s GEFS based AO forecast is even more impressive for 2/15-18 as it suggests a dip to ~-5 is quite possible then! That would be lowest daily AO since 2/10-11/2021! Other Feb sub -5 AOs since 1950 were only these:

-2/10-11/2021 (-5.285 on 2/10) (weak +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/14/2010 (-5.132) (moderate +PNA, MJO moderate 8)

-2/6-7/2010 (-5.205 on 2/6) (strong +PNA, MJO moderate 7)

-2/5-6/1978 (-5.291 on 2/5, lowest Feb AO on record) (strong +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/13-16/1969 (-5.282 on 2/13)(neutral PNA, MJO unknown)

IMG_2843.thumb.png.d81620a0122bdf0be55f3effbbbd9af4.png
 

At the same time the PNA could be nearing +1:

IMG_2842.thumb.png.54b09deede35018a8ed45e4846a3f8e3.png

 

At same time, MJO could be in moderate phase  8:

 

IMG_2845.png

With a slow progression through phase 8 and a negative AO expect a couple big Storms from the Mid South to the upper SE by Months end. Models should begin to show these more prominent within the next 5 Days or so.

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I'm still in wait and see mode. We are going on 11 years with no snowstorm more than 4 inches in the snowiest month of the year climatologically. We haven't had more than 2 inches of snow total in any February since 2014. The SE Ridge will still give issues to areas along and south of 40, timing will need to be perfect. 

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