Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WeatherHawk]

Quiet and eerie atm...any updates on expected ice totals?  Heard someone at the store talking about .75" up to 1.0" of ice in Ashe...been out of the loop a few days with the flu.  

[WXNewton]

2 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Quiet and eerie atm...any updates on expected ice totals?  Heard someone at the store talking about .75" up to 1.0" of ice in Ashe...been out of the loop a few days with the flu.  

I thought about heading up to the cabin to wait it out and see, but the whole family has the flu. Really hoping we don't get that much, that would be a lot of cleaning up to do! Folks along the river in my area have pretty much lost their home and most possessions during the hurricane. I guess we will find out which trees and limbs are still barely hanging on. 

[WXNewton]

21 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Quiet and eerie atm...any updates on expected ice totals?  Heard someone at the store talking about .75" up to 1.0" of ice in Ashe...been out of the loop a few days with the flu.  

Comparing all of this mornings runs, it doesn't look great for the areas along the Parkway and border counties. 

[eyewall]

It is pretty much going to be misery in Raleigh lol. A brief mix to an awful cold rain.

[WeatherHawk]

55 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Comparing all of this mornings runs, it doesn't look great for the areas along the Parkway and border counties. 

Indeed, we've been working along HWY 88 between West Jefferson and areas west...Creston, Warrensville, Potterstown...and it's still in poor condition from the hurricane.  Thanks for sharing the runs...looks like they're converging along the BRP.  If those totals verify, we're gonna have some power outages for a bit.  Currently here in NW Watauga it's calm-birds at the feeders seem frantic-they know something's coming.  Be safe everyone. 

[CentralNC]

Blacksburg now has WWA for Yadkin and other border counties.

[NorthHillsWx]

End of the month is looking quite cold 

[olafminesaw]

[BooneWX]

I like what I see for 12z. One last crack at winter outside of the mountains to end the month.

[Brick Tamland]

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

It is pretty much going to be misery in Raleigh lol. A brief mix to an awful cold rain.

That is the worst.

[wncsnow]

25 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I like what I see for 12z. One last crack at winter outside of the mountains to end the month.

Still seems like we are a bit too far south in NC. VA looks good 

[BlueRidge18]

5 day mean on EPS looks decent today! I’m interested here in WNC


.

[StantonParkHoya]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

End of the month is looking quite cold 

lol good for nothing! SUN ANGLE

[CentralNC]

RAH issues WWA for NC Piedmont. 7AM Tues to 7AM Wed

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=rah&issuedby=RAH&product=WSW

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro also very cold from the 17th on. Bit of a storm signal around the 20th. Snow Might not happen but this is real Arctic cold so that time period has a chance. 

[PackGrad05]

12 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

RAH issues WWA for NC Piedmont. 7AM Tues to 7AM Wed

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=rah&issuedby=RAH&product=WSW

 

Not all the piedmont.  NW Portions.

[GaWx]

The GEFS mean is forecasting AO gets down to ~-4.5 on Feb 14-15: that’s pretty impressive

 

Edit: This would mean the strongest period of +PNA within Feb since 2017 and potentially a top 5 +PNA for all of Feb back to 1950; also, 2024-5 has a good shot to end up the most +PNA DJF for a non-Nino since at least 1949-50:

[BornAgain13]

Models have trended drier and warmer even up this way. Still may get a little snow in the morning and a little ZR but seeing warmer trends and not expecting much. 

[BooneWX]

I hope the NAM is out to lunch because it’s painting apocalyptic frz rn totals in the mountains of NC and VA. For a large chunk of the event it has temps running between 28-30 in those areas. 

[CentralNC]

9 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I hope the NAM is out to lunch because it’s painting apocalyptic frz rn totals in the mountains of NC and VA. For a large chunk of the event it has temps running between 28-30 in those areas. 

I certainly would not discount it. That's for sure

[olafminesaw]

19 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I hope the NAM is out to lunch because it’s painting apocalyptic frz rn totals in the mountains of NC and VA. For a large chunk of the event it has temps running between 28-30 in those areas. 

Wherever temps get locked in at or below 29 degrees, high ice totals will occur. All depends on temps at onset

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Wherever temps get locked in at or below 29 degrees, high ice totals will occur. All depends on temps at onset

I’ve seen in ATL bad icestorms where the temp was mainly 30-31. Not really bad on roads at those temps but bad on elevated surfaces. Especially if the ZR wasn’t pouring and winds were on lighter side. So many variables I guess.

Tony @dsaurtold the forum many times about the terrible Jan 1973 icestorm in Buckhead portion of N ATL. He said the temp was mainly 31-32 in that one and the ZR was heavy at times. I think he said roads were bad, too. But there may have been some snow and sleet preceding the ZR contributing to road problems.

 So, you never know. How far temp aloft gets above 32 is important variable.

[NorthHillsWx]

I really don’t think we’re (piedmont/upstate) done with winter weather threats yet

[BornAgain13]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I really don’t think we’re (piedmont/upstate) done with winter weather threats yet

This upcoming pattern looks to be game on. Just need to get the moisture and cold teamed up!

[BornAgain13]

Day 9/10, Big Winter Storm for the SE. Snow to ICE Scenario

[BornAgain13]

Already down to 35.7 at my house. 

[Buddy1987]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Already down to 35.7 at my house. 

33/17 here now. Lower than I thought thus far. Expecting a 2-5 or 3-6 ordeal before flip to sleet and freezing rain. As some have alluded to some of the freezing rain totals are prolific. Nam has beefed them up. Gfs and Canadian had over an inch up this way @BornAgain13even half of that would be insane! I’ve seen between .75-1.00 when I was a kid growing up in CT and it sounded like a shotgun going off in the woods all night with trees snapping like twigs. Lost power for well over a week. Can’t ever forget something like that. 

[BornAgain13]

12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

33/17 here now. Lower than I thought thus far. Expecting a 2-5 or 3-6 ordeal before flip to sleet and freezing rain. As some have alluded to some of the freezing rain totals are prolific. Nam has beefed them up. Gfs and Canadian had over an inch up this way @BornAgain13even half of that would be insane! I’ve seen between .75-1.00 when I was a kid growing up in CT and it sounded like a shotgun going off in the woods all night with trees snapping like twigs. Lost power for well over a week. Can’t ever forget something like that. 

I remember a lot of ice storms when I was a kid... you said it exactly. Sounded like shotguns going off in the woods. 

[BornAgain13]

@Buddy1987if only the 0z HRRR was right down this way 

[BornAgain13]

Does anyone on here have how much sleet the models are showing?