Met1985 Posted Friday at 02:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:06 PM Really good trends overnight and this morning. Yall have to look at the bigger picture. If you think the models have nailed this down 7 days before then you're a newb. Heck there has even been some sizable shifts for this weekends system but if you want to give yourself a heart palpitations go ahead lol. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Friday at 02:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:08 PM 2 minutes ago, suzook said: My issue with the CAD, is, its not going to be as cold as modeled, especially the 1st system. What are you talking about? You talking about this weekends storm? The models have trended colder because you have that lob up in Maine pressing further south and the models are just now seeing it. That's why yall can't live and die every 6 hours... 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Friday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:13 PM What’s up everyone?! Been in the Mid Atlantic forum for quite a bit. My area in Roanoke is tough because I feel like I don’t have a dedicated forum. Kinda smack dab in the middle of the southeast and Mid Atlantic. Anyhow, beginning to grow increasingly concerned about a major ice storm here. Last NAM I checked, prior to 12z running, showed 0.84” of ice here. Even half of that number would be crippling. 0z Canadian wanted to go full on white sandy beach with anywhere from 1.5-2.3” of sleet. Hoping we all get in on some action in the coming weeks. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Friday at 02:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:25 PM 10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: What’s up everyone?! Been in the Mid Atlantic forum for quite a bit. My area in Roanoke is tough because I feel like I don’t have a dedicated forum. Kinda smack dab in the middle of the southeast and Mid Atlantic. Anyhow, beginning to grow increasingly concerned about a major ice storm here. Last NAM I checked, prior to 12z running, showed 0.84” of ice here. Even half of that number would be crippling. 0z Canadian wanted to go full on white sandy beach with anywhere from 1.5-2.3” of sleet. Hoping we all get in on some action in the coming weeks. Year area looks like it's going to get nailed. May start out at snow then sleep then to freezing rain. Definitely going to be interesting up that way for most of Virginia. I know yall kind of feel like most do down here with hardly getting any snow the past several winters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 02:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:25 PM I just woke up and saw the 6Z GFS. It is plain and simple a lousy run if you want wintry precip in the SE US. What happened? And whereas the Euro AI continues to have generous precip with system 2, it keeps warming (higher 850s and thicknesses) as the track of the low goes further north. On the 6Z, ATL gets very little wintry precip of any kind! Am I looking at these right? Am I really awake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Friday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:28 PM 1 minute ago, GaWx said: I just woke up and saw the 6Z GFS. It is plain and simple a lousy run if you want wintry precip in the SE US. What happened? And whereas the Euro AI continues to have generous precip with system 2, it keeps warming (higher 850s and thicknesses) as the track of the low goes further north. On the 6Z, ATL gets very little wintry precip of any kind! Am I looking at these right? Am I really awake? To me I just see the volatility of the pattern and I do try to hedge on the optimistic side. There has been no run to run continuity on any model for the 10th storm. So why start now with it being a week away. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:30 PM 23 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: . 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: I just woke up and saw the 6Z GFS. It is plain and simple a lousy run if you want wintry precip in the SE US. What happened? And whereas the Euro AI continues to have generous precip with system 2, it keeps warming (higher 850s and thicknesses) as the track of the low goes further north. On the 6Z, ATL gets very little wintry precip of any kind! Am I looking at these right? Am I really awake? I think with the 6z Euro AI it's picking up on more of a miller A, so the thermals warm with the transfer to the coast. I think we want the dynamic system because thermals will be better on the north side of the system, even with the inevitable warm nose coming into play. Wouldn't sweat the details, because it seems less granular than other models Edit: of course for you, a miller A is never going to work out, I apologize, this is not just the Carolina's subforum! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheoahBald1 Posted Friday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:33 PM Moderate snow in Graham county at 33 degrees on the NC/TN line . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Friday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:34 PM Heck of a dynamic system unfolding. 12z Nam has a squall line developing over Mississippi and western Tennessee. Also slower with arrival of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Friday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:35 PM 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: I just woke up and saw the 6Z GFS. It is plain and simple a lousy run if you want wintry precip in the SE US. What happened? And whereas the Euro AI continues to have generous precip with system 2, it keeps warming (higher 850s and thicknesses) as the track of the low goes further north. On the 6Z, ATL gets very little wintry precip of any kind! Am I looking at these right? Am I really awake? Yes, you are awake. Alot of members still have their snow goggles on. Not saying some get snow, but us in GA, unless in the mountains, are looking at a wet dream. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:46 PM Way too early to be worrying about whether or not this thing is over amped. Models are still struggling to have the storm at all and all ensemble support that it does have isn’t amped in the slightest. Really, all we have to support an amped storm at this time frame is the Euro AI and like 2 GFS runs. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:48 PM 15 minutes ago, suzook said: Yes, you are awake. Alot of members still have their snow goggles on. Not saying some get snow, but us in GA, unless in the mountains, are looking at a wet dream. I’d prefer to look realistically at trends whether good or bad. The current trends are for much of the SE not going in a direction I like to see. There’s still time to reverse, of course. And I just saw the 6Z GEFS snow through 1/11: it is also pretty lousy: 6Z GEFS through 1/11: nothing good about this compared to recent days: 18Z GEFS through 1/11 had a good bit more and even it had much less than some earlier runs: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:48 PM Surprised nobody has mentioned how the 6z Euro showed quite the overrunning setup. Shades of Dec 2017. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:00 PM 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’d prefer to look realistically at trends whether good or bad. The current trends are for much of the SE not going in a direction I like to see. There’s still time to reverse, of course. And I just saw the 6Z GEFS snow through 1/11: it is also pretty lousy: 6Z GEFS through 1/11: nothing good about this compared to recent days: 18Z GEFS through 1/11 had a good bit more and even it had much less than some earlier runs: Compare the 6Z GEFS to what this EPS from 0Z on 1/28 had through Jan 11th: 6Z GEFS: many areas have only 10-20% as much snow as they had on the 0Z 1/28 EPS! The warning signs shouldn’t be minimized regardless of potential turnaround back in the snowier direction. I’m not mad but I like to at least be realistic and recognize all trends, good or bad: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 03:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:05 PM 16 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Surprised nobody has mentioned how the 6z Euro showed quite the overrunning setup. Shades of Dec 2017. Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Friday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:06 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 03:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:07 PM Map?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:09 PM Euro says perhaps a little light snow Monday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:10 PM 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: . gotcha! thats the 0z Euro, not 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Friday at 03:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:11 PM 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Euro says perhaps a little light snow Monday night Good call out. That is one hell of a strong vort that would swing thru. Wherever it swings and whoever is just north of it may very well have a nice surprise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:15 PM 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: gotcha! thats the 0z Euro, not 6z. My bad. Still! Not a look most would hate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted Friday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:26 PM 32 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’d prefer to look realistically at trends whether good or bad. The current trends are for much of the SE not going in a direction I like to see. There’s still time to reverse, of course. And I just saw the 6Z GEFS snow through 1/11: it is also pretty lousy: 6Z GEFS through 1/11: nothing good about this compared to recent days: 18Z GEFS through 1/11 had a good bit more and even it had much less than some earlier runs: .3 is way better than I've had in years, so I'm good with that, lol. Even .3 of zr would be more than a nuisance, but it would be something frozen. And mix in some sleet, and I could still go sliding. That's about what I got in 05 and I had a heck of a good time on it and that's the last time I could sled on concrete. Nearly 20 years, Larry, 20 years. That just ain't right! 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 03:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:31 PM 3 minutes ago, dsaur said: .3 is way better than I've had in years, so I'm good with that, lol. Even .3 of zr would be more than a nuisance, but it would be something frozen. And mix in some sleet, and I could still go sliding. That's about what I got in 05 and I had a heck of a good time on it and that's the last time I could sled on concrete. Nearly 20 years, Larry, 20 years. That just ain't right! Hey Tony, great to see you posting! Hope all is well with you and of course your world famous moles, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted Friday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:35 PM The has been a Dino sighting ! Good to see you Tony. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Friday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:37 PM What does this mean? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:55 PM 12Z Icon has light snow far S MS/AL and far W FL Panhandle (delayed from prior run): That leads to a very close call in far S GA with light precip falling and 31 F: looks like ZR or IP there as 850s are well above 0C (at +2C to +4C): Icon doesn’t show ZR/IP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:04 PM CNC might be in for a little Monday night surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Friday at 04:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:11 PM 43 minutes ago, dsaur said: .3 is way better than I've had in years, so I'm good with that, lol. Even .3 of zr would be more than a nuisance, but it would be something frozen. And mix in some sleet, and I could still go sliding. That's about what I got in 05 and I had a heck of a good time on it and that's the last time I could sled on concrete. Nearly 20 years, Larry, 20 years. That just ain't right! No ZR please. Anything but that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 04:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:19 PM GFS looking a lot like 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 04:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:20 PM Major winter storm in Tenn, northern Alabama and Miss. snow breaking out in Nc at 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now