Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[olafminesaw]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The SE’s best bet to get the pattern to change back to cold by the last few days of Feb and through at least much of March is to have a mid Feb major SSW. As of yesterday, the EPS and GEFS means were still showing no indication of that being much of a possibility with instead showing strong SPV related mean 60N zonal winds at midmonth.

 However, I was alerted earlier tonight by Dr. Simon Lee tweets that a strong Scandinavian (high)-Greenland (low) SLP Dipole was on the models Feb 6-7. The reason that’s important is that he’s done studies showing that this Dipole is often a precursor to a major SSW by ~~1 week. The last few GFS runs have been hinting at a much weaker SPV in mid Feb. We should know much more by the Sunday runs. In addition, Joe D’Aleo did a study that concluded a high chance for a major SSW during high solar/+QBO winters like 2024-5.

 Dr. Simon Lee’s study of S-G Dipole:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030940

0Z 1/31/24 GFS 168: strong S-G Dipole:

Some agreement here

[StantonParkHoya]

4 hours ago, Jmoon said:

Warm February is good for nothing in Winter. You should know by now what a warm February is going to bring you in March and April and sometimes May. 

Difference is by April and May our highs are 70s/80s so even 10 BN is pleasant