Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

1 week later you can see the results. This is a normal lag time between higher heights building in over the Poles and a pattern change over the CONUS. So we may have a window from roughly Feb 21 - Mid March where we could squeak out another event. We shall see.

 Though still not showing anywhere near BN cold and still mild through 2/16 in the SE, the new Euro Weeklies have cooled off from AN to only slightly above to NN in N portions 2/17-3/2 in the SE US. We’ll see whether or not that is a one run aberration. 

2/17-23: (2/24-3/2 looks similar in SE)

[dsaur]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Though still not showing anywhere near BN cold and still mild through 2/16 in the SE, the new Euro Weeklies have cooled off from AN to only slightly above to NN in N portions 2/17-3/2 in the SE US. We’ll see whether or not that is a one run aberration. 

2/17-23: (2/24-3/2 looks similar in SE)

Well, Climo likes the last third of Feb for Ga snows, so it's in the bank....right??  A three peat for 2025.  And this time the big one for Tony...not these piddly 1 inch snows with a little ip, but a three inch ip with a little snow.  Make is so, Mr. Abacus...if you please

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, dsaur said:

Well, Climo likes the last third of Feb for Ga snows, so it's in the bank....right??  A three peat for 2025.  And this time the big one for Tony...not these piddly 1 inch snows with a little ip, but a three inch ip with a little snow.  Make is so, Mr. Abacus...if you please

 Well Mr. Moles, I wouldn’t say in bank but 3”+ storms in Feb in GA have tended to occur mid to late Feb to Mar 2nd as well as in late Jan. For an unknown reason early Feb has been quiet. Could be merely randomness.

[StantonParkHoya]

6 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

So next 2 weeks look very warm. AO/NAO are headed up and the PV is going to strengthen. This will allow the central/eastern CONUS to warm significantly vs January. That said, there are signals the 2nd half of February will be a transitionary period to perhaps a colder March in the east.

See below for the 12z Euro extended 5h heights and the GEFS AO forecast. 

Cold March is good for nothing. It’s not the 1960s. A cold rain and seasonal depression.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Cold March is good for nothing. It’s not the 1960s. A cold rain and seasonal depression.

 Good news for you as of now. There’s no indication for a cold first 1/3 of March on today’s Euro Weeklies. Though it could of course change drastically since it is over a month away, this map shows the opposite of cold in the E US:

This is for Mar 3-9:

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Good news for you as of now. There’s no indication for a cold first 1/3 of March on today’s Euro Weeklies. Though it could of course change drastically since it is over a month away, this map shows the opposite of cold in the E US:

This is for Mar 3-9:

Looks standard Nina +AO.

[dsaur]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Well Mr. Moles, I wouldn’t say in bank but 3”+ storms in Feb in GA have tended to occur mid to late Feb to Mar 2nd as well as in late Jan. For an unknown reason early Feb has been quiet. Could be merely randomness.

I think it's the old "reloading" thing.  Early Jan, actually from Xmas on thru most of Jan used to be cold, then reload.... indigenous people's summer....then mid Feb, to late, gave some great storms back in the way back.  Then March was a crap shoot. Now, who knows.... but people saying no more chances before Jan is even over, maybe right, but maybe not. The actual weather generally has something to say about these things, lol....and I've never seen a script.

[olafminesaw]

Volatility! These are within a 4 day timeframe 

[suzook]

25 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Volatility! These are within a 4 day timeframe 

Looks like a normal winter pattern these days. Warm, a quick shot of cold, then back to warm.

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, suzook said:

Looks like a normal winter pattern these days. Warm, a quick shot of cold, then back to warm.

 Even in a mild (cold) month, a short period or two of cold (mild) isn’t uncommon. 0Z/6Z ens means are suggesting a 2-3 day long cold period is quite possible in the E US starting ~Feb 9th-10th but otherwise they’re mainly on the mild side NYC south and restrengthen the SE ridge immediately afterward. So, the means for the first half of Feb would still easily be AN NYC south. Will keep watching ens mean trends for Feb 9th+ to see how they trend going forward.

 Phases 6-7, especially 6, lean toward the AN temp side in Feb fwiw. Phases that are BN on avg in Feb are 8, 1, 2, and 3, especially if amplitude isn’t strong.

[eyewall]

Typically it is an early spring with La Nina. I wouldn't expect anything less this time.