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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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If this is the end of the prime winter weather stretch, so be it. I hate we all didn’t match the cold and moisture more often but truthfully, we’ve had almost wall to wall cold since Thanksgiving except for a mild thaw around Christmas. It’s bound to flip and it’s very hard to piece together a third month when you’ve had almost 2 perfect months in the south. I still think we’ll have shots and a volatile month but extended cold like we had in January is probably going to be hard to come by. Oceanic temps in the Enso region show a more established La Niña and that’s a harbinger of the SER being a dominate feature as we migrate towards spring. 
 

Winter grade to now:

Cold/feels like winter: A+
 

Moisture: D

 

overall: C+. Snowless streak broken imby and for many. An improvement from the F winters of late. 
 

Long term hope: La Niña trends to neutral and we get a very weak Nino next winter. I’m worried about spring and summer in the meantime. For many on this board, Helene left a mess that won’t be cleaned up in the forests and woods. A drought would be very bad news. 

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1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

If this is the end of the prime winter weather stretch, so be it. I hate we all didn’t match the cold and moisture more often but truthfully, we’ve had almost wall to wall cold since Thanksgiving except for a mild thaw around Christmas. It’s bound to flip and it’s very hard to piece together a third month when you’ve had almost 2 perfect months in the south. I still think we’ll have shots and a volatile month but extended cold like we had in January is probably going to be hard to come by. Oceanic temps in the Enso region show a more established La Niña and that’s a harbinger of the SER being a dominate feature as we migrate towards spring. 
 

Winter grade to now:

Cold/feels like winter: A+
 

Moisture: D

 

overall: C+. Snowless streak broken imby and for many. An improvement from the F winters of late. 
 

Long term hope: La Niña trends to neutral and we get a very weak Nino next winter. I’m worried about spring and summer in the meantime. For many on this board, Helene left a mess that won’t be cleaned up in the forests and woods. A drought would be very bad news. 

D for here. Had two small events, but still below average. 

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19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

D for here. Had two small events, but still below average. 

I would’ve given it a D or F many years ago but I’m not sure averages are relevant anymore. We’re clearly in a different weather era for the south and I truly think our old climatology moved north by a few states boardwide, years ago.

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1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

D for here. Had two small events, but still below average. 

I’ll give it a generous C simply bc we broke the streak and had two events. Both events stayed below freezing and covered my street. Also, the cold was impressive and a pleasant surprise. Cannot sugarcoat meager snowfall amounts. My 1.9” season total leaves much to be desired. Also doing  post mortem in January is probably premature, but maybe we’ll reverse jinx the sh*t pattern we’re heading into

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It's only my 7th winter here, so I don't think I have enough time to properly grade. But I did have 3 snow events this year, with the last one last week being the least amount at a dusting. and the one from December 3rd the most at an inch.  Impressive cold.. with the high of only 25 last Tuesday.

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30 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

January is pretty much the only month we have a shot at getting snow here anymore.

There’s been no measurable snow/sleet in ATL during Feb since 2014. In the late 1800s, Feb was the snowiest month.

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So next 2 weeks look very warm. AO/NAO are headed up and the PV is going to strengthen. This will allow the central/eastern CONUS to warm significantly vs January. That said, there are signals the 2nd half of February will be a transitionary period to perhaps a colder March in the east.

See below for the 12z Euro extended 5h heights and the GEFS AO forecast. 

1739448000-ouO515Uci88.png

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

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1 week later you can see the results. This is a normal lag time between higher heights building in over the Poles and a pattern change over the CONUS. So we may have a window from roughly Feb 21 - Mid March where we could squeak out another event. We shall see.

1740528000-cx9f3fYBWHc.png

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