Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[suzook]

I know I am going to get my ass reemed, but I am ready for spring.

[tarheelwx]

The 6z AI just made a major move towards the Euro and GFS.  From the 00z run to the 6z run for Saturday night in the triad, we went from precip with temps in the low 40's to precip with lows around freezing.  I guess we'll see where things go.

 

TW

[Upstate Tiger]

GSP reached 59 one day this month.  Will we reach 60?  Puts this month in pretty rare company if we do not...

[CentralNC]

25 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

The 6z AI just made a major move towards the Euro and GFS.  From the 00z run to the 6z run for Saturday night in the triad, we went from precip with temps in the low 40's to precip with lows around freezing.  I guess we'll see where things go.

 

TW

Which Saturday are we talking about?

[suzook]

10 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Which Saturday are we talking about?

Feb 1st

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, lilj4425 said:

Finally some good news. 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS has ice in GA and SC at 189. I think it was rain the last run 

[wncsnow]

Signal is still there. All depends on where the high sets up and when the low ejects.

[Brick Tamland]

GFS is too warm this time. Mostly rain for 2/2.

[NorthHillsWx]

Holy sh*t that’s a monster wedge on the 31st on 12z GFS. 1045 sitting in central PA. Storm is hung up (weird evolution) but that is a STRONG wedge as shown 

[NorthHillsWx]

Without blocking any storm especially a miller B is going to be timing critical for wintry weather. The HP is going to be transient. For this to work we need the energy out west to eject cleanly to align with the high. We’ve struggled to get our SW to work out this year so that’s a huge concern. Given the wedge look and timing on the backside of the cold push this pattern favors ice but getting the system in quicker and timed with that high is the only way to get any snow from this. I fear we’re tracking an ice storm and don’t see a way around that on the winter weather side of things 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

If it ain’t snow, it can go. 
 

I’d rather it be 95 with a DP in the 70s next Saturday than reel in an ice storm. If that’s the option on the table I hope you RDU folks score again and not me!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

This thread has been jumping in January! 102 pages within 23 days is wild.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Just now, BooneWX said:

If it ain’t snow, it can go. 
 

I’d rather it be 95 with a DP in the 70s next Saturday than reel in an ice storm. If that’s the option on the table I hope you RDU folks score again and not me!

In the modern era, ice storms are always overdone on models 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Knowing no other context one would be tempted to say “incoming” if they saw this posted 

[WXNewton]

12z CMC has some ice too.

[BooneWX]

11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

In the modern era, ice storms are always overdone on models 

We’ve had a few if any ice storms in the modern era that involve strong HP to the NE. Most are in-situ CAD events, which do indeed bust 9/10 times. 

[WXNewton]

9 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

We’ve had a few if any ice storms in the modern era that involve strong HP to the NE. Most are in-situ CAD events, which do indeed bust 9/10 times. 

As a kid, I always remember the 96 ICE Storm (Feb 2nd-3rd) that struck the Catawba Valley area. Without power for almost ten days and lows near zero several mornings after the storm. I still remember listening to the trees pop all night long and then still popping days after. Definitely one of the scariest but also extreme/exciting weather events that peaked my interest in keeping up with the weather. That storm was loaded with moisture, and was a recipe for disaster. 

[ncjoaquin]

That one sticks in my head too. We had powder snow on top. Pines cracking sounded like shotgun blasts. 

[strongwxnc]

9 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

As a kid, I always remember the 96 ICE Storm (Feb 2nd-3rd) that struck the Catawba Valley area. Without power for almost ten days and lows near zero several mornings after the storm. I still remember listening to the trees pop all night long and then still popping days after. Definitely one of the scariest but also extreme/exciting weather events that peaked my interest in keeping up with the weather. That storm was loaded with moisture, and was a recipe for disaster. 

96 was great here.  I do not recall much ice down here. 

[SnowDeac]

51 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Knowing no other context one would be tempted to say “incoming” if they saw this posted 

Yeah, if this were to occur, I highly doubt the low would just slam into an entrenched (even if retreating) 1040 HP. Seems like it would be more suppressed/likely to transfer to the coast Miller A style.

[Brick Tamland]

Euro is too warm. Nothing but rain for 2/1 - 2/2.

[tarheelwx]

Definitely some opportunity for late next week.  But THI one is more of a thread the needle deal. 
TW

[olafminesaw]