Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[StantonParkHoya]

After seeing this result, and the trends from the Monday storm, I’d like to keep it showing Deep South and beach snow for 3 more days. It always comes north.

[mercurydime]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Not massive amounts but it's nice

We'll take it!

[BornAgain13]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

After seeing this result, and the trends from the Monday storm, I’d like to keep it showing Deep South and beach snow for 3 more days. It always comes north.

Difference is this storm will have more cold air and the confluence is keeping it pushed down... It's definitely not going to cut with that look... Just got to get the right track..

[SnowDawg]

Just glancing at soundings and again the ice is a bit overdone

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

After seeing this result, and the trends from the Monday storm, I’d like to keep it showing Deep South and beach snow for 3 more days. It always comes north.

 A NW trend is common and it coincides with the cold bias of most models in the E US. If I were betting, I’d bet on it most of the time. The cold bias leads to teases for the Deep South due to tracks too far SE that usually don’t verify. There are many more teases than the actual rare wintry precip events for down in this neck of the woods. When they do occur, they’re often just a T. That’s why I’ve said most likely nothing or at most a T for this event for this area. This keeps me grounded and keeps disappointment when it does the normal and doesn’t occur minimal at worst.

 The reason for the cold bias of models is debatable but some pro mets believe it is due to the very warm west Pacific and the models not handling it well.

[BornAgain13]

0z GFS continues to keep the cold air around for a long time, whether we have wintry weather or not .

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET like the 12Z UK/Euro is totally dry for 1/8-10 over the SE.

[SnowDawg]

Ensemble still just doesn't seem to really like it. As I said before I think it's possible they are a bit too coarse to solve the situation with the three different pieces of energy at this lead, especially the baja low maybe they are lagging behind the OP in seeing it tick east. Hopefully we see things change in the coming days, but have to be cautious until the ensemble shows support. 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro for Jan 10-11:

[SnowDawg]

Op euro with another tick towards the GFS. GFS just had a slightly better attempt at the phase so it was a bit stronger. Like having op euro at least somewhat onboard for sure though.

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro for Jan 10-11:

Getting closer. It shifted south a little with system 1 also. 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS through 1/11 only: less than prior 2 runs

Edit: keep in mind there’s also IP/ZR in addition to this

[Met1985]

Euro made some big improvements. 

[Met1985]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z GEFS through 1/11 only: less than prior 2 run

This is either going to be a sheared out mess or something big. 

[SnowDawg]

EPS looks much better than the GEFS. Even shows a low pressure anomaly in the northern gulf.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

EPS looks much better than the GEFS. Even shows a low pressure anomaly in the northern gulf.

0Z EPS snow through 1/11: is better than 0Z GEFS in NC

 

[olafminesaw]

The Euro AI had a big storm at 18z and a moderate storm 0z. My sense is it's a good model to use to see which direction model consensus is wrong (it was way North with the 6th system all along). 6z GFS goes back to much more suppressed. Hopefully not the start of a trend

[BornAgain13]

6z GFS suppresses our big storm... As far as the storm for this weekend, the GFS, NAM RGEM AND CMC all have a Major Ice storm now for CAD areas, especially into NW NC and Southern VA

[BornAgain13]

The Euro and EPS both trended south at 6z for Sunday/Monday.

[BooneWX]

Euro AI is almost identical to 0z. Classic Miller A bomb.

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS suppresses our big storm... As far as the storm for this weekend, the GFS, NAM RGEM AND CMC all have a Major Ice storm now for CAD areas, especially into NW NC and Southern VA

I think probably North of the VA border outside of the mountains, could be a big ice storm for Roanoke

[HKY_WX]

Definitely a noticable trend south amongst the models with the HP system. i think the Cold air is pretty strong on this one. I like the CAD areas getting some ice on this one. 

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS suppresses our big storm... As far as the storm for this weekend, the GFS, NAM RGEM AND CMC all have a Major Ice storm now for CAD areas, especially into NW NC and Southern VA

 

[suzook]

OUCH! This is through Jan 19. I'm out again

[stormwatcherJ]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Definitely a noticable trend south amongst the models with the HP system. i think the Cold air is pretty strong on this one. I like the CAD areas getting some ice on this one. 

 

Forgive my ignorance but I’ve seen this term referred to a few times recently.. where are the “cad areas?”

[HKY_WX]

1 minute ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Forgive my ignorance but I’ve seen this term referred to a few times recently.. where are the “cad areas?”

Generally this referrs to the NC Mountain valleys, foothills, and NW/Northern Piedmont and NC/VA border areas along the interior.

[olafminesaw]

Model swings be like

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Forgive my ignorance but I’ve seen this term referred to a few times recently.. where are the “cad areas?”

here is a quick reference. This should give you an idea.

Areas just east of the mountain in NC down into the upstate fair well in CAD .The meat spots are the lee side NC counties in the foothills. But based on the depth can extend most south and east as shown in this post. e  

[stormwatcherJ]

Thx for the responses on CAD guys! I’m in hillsborough, nc so on the edge I guess. I’m sure will be cold rain, lol

[suzook]

My issue with the CAD, is, its not going to be as cold as modeled, especially the 1st system.

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

here is a quick reference. This should give you an idea.

Areas just east of the mountain in NC down into the upstate fair well in CAD .The meat spots are the lee side NC counties in the foothills. But based on the depth can extend most south and east as shown in this post. e  

A little nuance (although this is old)