StantonParkHoya Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 After seeing this result, and the trends from the Monday storm, I’d like to keep it showing Deep South and beach snow for 3 more days. It always comes north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Not massive amounts but it's nice We'll take it! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: After seeing this result, and the trends from the Monday storm, I’d like to keep it showing Deep South and beach snow for 3 more days. It always comes north. Difference is this storm will have more cold air and the confluence is keeping it pushed down... It's definitely not going to cut with that look... Just got to get the right track.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just glancing at soundings and again the ice is a bit overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 34 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: After seeing this result, and the trends from the Monday storm, I’d like to keep it showing Deep South and beach snow for 3 more days. It always comes north. A NW trend is common and it coincides with the cold bias of most models in the E US. If I were betting, I’d bet on it most of the time. The cold bias leads to teases for the Deep South due to tracks too far SE that usually don’t verify. There are many more teases than the actual rare wintry precip events for down in this neck of the woods. When they do occur, they’re often just a T. That’s why I’ve said most likely nothing or at most a T for this event for this area. This keeps me grounded and keeps disappointment when it does the normal and doesn’t occur minimal at worst. The reason for the cold bias of models is debatable but some pro mets believe it is due to the very warm west Pacific and the models not handling it well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 0z GFS continues to keep the cold air around for a long time, whether we have wintry weather or not . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 0Z UKMET like the 12Z UK/Euro is totally dry for 1/8-10 over the SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Ensemble still just doesn't seem to really like it. As I said before I think it's possible they are a bit too coarse to solve the situation with the three different pieces of energy at this lead, especially the baja low maybe they are lagging behind the OP in seeing it tick east. Hopefully we see things change in the coming days, but have to be cautious until the ensemble shows support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 0Z Euro for Jan 10-11: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Op euro with another tick towards the GFS. GFS just had a slightly better attempt at the phase so it was a bit stronger. Like having op euro at least somewhat onboard for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z Euro for Jan 10-11: Getting closer. It shifted south a little with system 1 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 0Z GEFS through 1/11 only: less than prior 2 runs Edit: keep in mind there’s also IP/ZR in addition to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro made some big improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z GEFS through 1/11 only: less than prior 2 run This is either going to be a sheared out mess or something big. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 EPS looks much better than the GEFS. Even shows a low pressure anomaly in the northern gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: EPS looks much better than the GEFS. Even shows a low pressure anomaly in the northern gulf. 0Z EPS snow through 1/11: is better than 0Z GEFS in NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The Euro AI had a big storm at 18z and a moderate storm 0z. My sense is it's a good model to use to see which direction model consensus is wrong (it was way North with the 6th system all along). 6z GFS goes back to much more suppressed. Hopefully not the start of a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6z GFS suppresses our big storm... As far as the storm for this weekend, the GFS, NAM RGEM AND CMC all have a Major Ice storm now for CAD areas, especially into NW NC and Southern VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The Euro and EPS both trended south at 6z for Sunday/Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro AI is almost identical to 0z. Classic Miller A bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z GFS suppresses our big storm... As far as the storm for this weekend, the GFS, NAM RGEM AND CMC all have a Major Ice storm now for CAD areas, especially into NW NC and Southern VA I think probably North of the VA border outside of the mountains, could be a big ice storm for Roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Definitely a noticable trend south amongst the models with the HP system. i think the Cold air is pretty strong on this one. I like the CAD areas getting some ice on this one. 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z GFS suppresses our big storm... As far as the storm for this weekend, the GFS, NAM RGEM AND CMC all have a Major Ice storm now for CAD areas, especially into NW NC and Southern VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 OUCH! This is through Jan 19. I'm out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Definitely a noticable trend south amongst the models with the HP system. i think the Cold air is pretty strong on this one. I like the CAD areas getting some ice on this one. Forgive my ignorance but I’ve seen this term referred to a few times recently.. where are the “cad areas?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, stormwatcherJ said: Forgive my ignorance but I’ve seen this term referred to a few times recently.. where are the “cad areas?” Generally this referrs to the NC Mountain valleys, foothills, and NW/Northern Piedmont and NC/VA border areas along the interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Model swings be like 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said: Forgive my ignorance but I’ve seen this term referred to a few times recently.. where are the “cad areas?” here is a quick reference. This should give you an idea. Areas just east of the mountain in NC down into the upstate fair well in CAD .The meat spots are the lee side NC counties in the foothills. But based on the depth can extend most south and east as shown in this post. e 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Thx for the responses on CAD guys! I’m in hillsborough, nc so on the edge I guess. I’m sure will be cold rain, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 My issue with the CAD, is, its not going to be as cold as modeled, especially the 1st system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: here is a quick reference. This should give you an idea. Areas just east of the mountain in NC down into the upstate fair well in CAD .The meat spots are the lee side NC counties in the foothills. But based on the depth can extend most south and east as shown in this post. e A little nuance (although this is old) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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