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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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3 hours ago, EarlGrey said:

What was impressive about yesterday was the high min’s that we had. 
 

IMG_9741.thumb.jpeg.3c45bb423246c4b58c9ad95d517db2a0.jpeg

That was for 4/3. For 4/4, RDU’s low was 73, which beat old record by 10, is new alltime April high min beating 72 of 4/29/2017, and crushed the old earliest in season 73 by 38 days!

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La Nina died a quiet death and we are now in an ENSO neutral state that looks to last into the fall.  After that, forecasts favor a continuation of neautral or weak Nina.  El Nino conditions are not favored at this time.  I am all in on neutral for summer, fall, and winter.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

 

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Had a tornado touch down a mile down the road Mon and just found out about it today.  I sleep real good, lol.  Sounds like it was an f0 or f1, but I haven't gone down to look.  Certainly not like the one that went thru a few years ago.  That was so loud no one around here could hear the siren a quarter mile away in daytime, and that would have woke me up for sure.  It went by a mile south, and I lost trees.  This one was a mile west, and apparently blocked roads with downed trees but not here. I didn't hear a thing. Still way to close.  I'm ready for winter! Looks like a cool to coldish night for Masters weekend.  Right on schedule, but not freezing here. Point forecast calling for  39. Still not bad for what's usually winters last gasp around here.  Goofy says there is another chance at coldish, but it's usually over this weekend.

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On 4/11/2025 at 8:41 PM, dsaur said:

Had a tornado touch down a mile down the road Mon and just found out about it today.  I sleep real good, lol.  Sounds like it was an f0 or f1, but I haven't gone down to look.  Certainly not like the one that went thru a few years ago.  That was so loud no one around here could hear the siren a quarter mile away in daytime, and that would have woke me up for sure.  It went by a mile south, and I lost trees.  This one was a mile west, and apparently blocked roads with downed trees but not here. I didn't hear a thing. Still way to close.  I'm ready for winter! Looks like a cool to coldish night for Masters weekend.  Right on schedule, but not freezing here. Point forecast calling for  39. Still not bad for what's usually winters last gasp around here.  Goofy says there is another chance at coldish, but it's usually over this weekend.

My new station says I had a 37, so not bad for winters last gasp.  The point forecast put the next shot at a 42 low, and I don't count it if it ain't in the 30's, lol. Bye winter..had two slight snows and a slighter sleet, so not too shabby compared to the last bunch of winters, but still pretty pitiful. I'd like to see Rory get his slam, though all three in tandem is what a real slam is, but it's hard enough to get all three in a lifetime :)

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On 4/13/2025 at 12:16 AM, dsaur said:

My new station says I had a 37, so not bad for winters last gasp.  The point forecast put the next shot at a 42 low, and I don't count it if it ain't in the 30's, lol. Bye winter..had two slight snows and a slighter sleet, so not too shabby compared to the last bunch of winters, but still pretty pitiful. I'd like to see Rory get his slam, though all three in tandem is what a real slam is, but it's hard enough to get all three in a lifetime :)

Well, beat the 37 with a 34 , so climo wins again.  Hardly ever fails that the weekend of the Master's is cold, or coldish at least one night.

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14 hours ago, dsaur said:

Well, beat the 37 with a 34 , so climo wins again.  Hardly ever fails that the weekend of the Master's is cold, or coldish at least one night.

Yup, cold nights. But the daytime temps were perfect for golf. Was a beautiful weekend.

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  • 2 weeks later...

 Looking back 115 years ago tomorrow, 4/25/1910, Atlanta had an absolutely amazing event: 1.5” of snow!!! The high on 4/25/1910 was only 39! After March 26th (going back to 1879), they have had highs below 40 only three times: 39 on 4/3/1987, 36 on 4/5/1891, and 39 on 4/25/1910. So, the 4/25/1910 very cold high really stands out in the record books for how late it is.

 This accumulating snow so late in April could easily be a once in several hundred year event and could even be a once in a thousand year event.

 The old Atlanta newspapers that I read (on microfiche at the public library) and copied forecasted rain and warmer temperatures on April 25th, not snow and colder. April 24th was 18 BN (high of 56 and low of 38) and they thought that that was to be the coldest day of the cold snap. So, this was a big surprise even to the meteorologists!

Edit: It appears that even down at @dsaur’s location there was nearly 1”!!

image.png.a4c10ee73209f77b579c28d14b64f503.png

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On 4/24/2025 at 5:00 PM, GaWx said:

 Looking back 115 years ago tomorrow, 4/25/1910, Atlanta had an absolutely amazing event: 1.5” of snow!!! The high on 4/25/1910 was only 39! After March 26th (going back to 1879), they have had highs below 40 only three times: 39 on 4/3/1987, 36 on 4/5/1891, and 39 on 4/25/1910. So, the 4/25/1910 very cold high really stands out in the record books for how late it is.

 This accumulating snow so late in April could easily be a once in several hundred year event and could even be a once in a thousand year event.

 The old Atlanta newspapers that I read (on microfiche at the public library) and copied forecasted rain and warmer temperatures on April 25th, not snow and colder. April 24th was 18 BN (high of 56 and low of 38) and they thought that that was to be the coldest day of the cold snap. So, this was a big surprise even to the meteorologists!

Edit: It appears that even down at @dsaur’s location there was nearly 1”!!

image.png.a4c10ee73209f77b579c28d14b64f503.png

Was that a particularly cold winter?  Any other frozen events?  What were the sun spots doing?  How do we get a repeat, lol.

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10 hours ago, dsaur said:

Was that a particularly cold winter?  Any other frozen events?  What were the sun spots doing?  How do we get a repeat, lol.

T,

- DJF was cold at 3 BN. But M was way warmer than normal! A was near normal.

- Only 0.3” of other SN fell that winter.

- The 1.5” of 4/1910 was the snowiest month since 1/1908 and wasn’t exceeded til 1/1912!

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On 4/26/2025 at 2:04 PM, GaWx said:

T,

- DJF was cold at 3 BN. But M was way warmer than normal! A was near normal.

- Only 0.3” of other SN fell that winter.

- The 1.5” of 4/1910 was the snowiest month since 1/1908 and wasn’t exceeded til 1/1912!

That's surprising as it was so much colder back then, and some of the biggest events were in that period, earlier, but withing 20 years, or so.  How many cold snaps occurred  that spring? Or was it a true outlier? It just seems so late in the spring to be a one off. But then we had a day or two in the 70's in July or Aug a few year back, and don't remember ever seeing that before.  A true one off.  I remember after TD Alberto dropped all that rain, the rest of the summer was comparatively mild, but not in the 70's mild. I guess climo works in mysterious ways, lol.

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1 hour ago, dsaur said:

That's surprising as it was so much colder back then, and some of the biggest events were in that period, earlier, but withing 20 years, or so.  How many cold snaps occurred  that spring? Or was it a true outlier? It just seems so late in the spring to be a one off. But then we had a day or two in the 70's in July or Aug a few year back, and don't remember ever seeing that before.  A true one off.  I remember after TD Alberto dropped all that rain, the rest of the summer was comparatively mild, but not in the 70's mild. I guess climo works in mysterious ways, lol.

 Tony,

  -After a cold winter, March was mild and all but one day Mar 24th through April 4th had 80s! The consistent BN chill didn’t restart til 4/17. From then through August, most dailies were BN! Mid May had a 3 day period with lows in the 40s.

 -1909-10 was the middle of a 3 year long La Niña. After that 3 year period came 1911-12, a moderate El Niño with several significant wintry precip events and a cold JF.

-Sunspots: 1909-10 was coming off the 1906-7 peak of the prior cycle, which was one of the two weakest cycles since after the early 1800s Dalton Minimum. The next cycle that was about as weak wasn’t until the one with the very weak min in 2008-9!

-Other Atlanta April measurable snows were 0.6” (4/4-5/1891), 0.2” (4/11/1918), and 1987 (4/3)(measurable northside but only T at KATL).

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8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Tony,

  -After a cold winter, March was mild and all but one day Mar 24th through April 4th had 80s! The consistent BN chill didn’t restart til 4/17. From then through August, most dailies were BN! Mid May had a 3 day period with lows in the 40s.

 -1909-10 was the middle of a 3 year long La Niña. After that 3 year period came 1911-12, a moderate El Niño with several significant wintry precip events and a cold JF.

-Sunspots: 1909-10 was coming off the 1906-7 peak of the prior cycle, which was one of the two weakest cycles since after the early 1800s Dalton Minimum. The next cycle that was about as weak wasn’t until the one with the very weak min in 2008-9!

-Other Atlanta April measurable snows were 0.6” (4/4-5/1891), 0.2” (4/11/1918), and 1987 (4/3)(measurable northside but only T at KATL).

A below normal summer...wow...must have seemed like a dream, lol.  I'm always amazed at the stats you can find. Many thanks for the education!  And I like the reference to the minimum.  I always think sun spots when a strange cold episode occurs, or volcanoes :)

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