Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[NorthHillsWx]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Get it back out just in case says the 0Z Goofy!

 

A full-fledged Barney is along for the ride this time!

6z way south, more like other guidance 

[BornAgain13]

55 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

6z way south, more like other guidance 

With the GFS and GEFS being the only ones showing much if anything at all, I'm not getting my hopes up yet

[eyewall]

Enhanced Risk for severe tomorrow for winds (some gusts 75 or greater).

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Enhanced Risk for severe tomorrow for winds (some gusts 75 or greater).

Eastern Carolina’s. Hatched 30% probability 

[Brick Tamland]

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

With the GFS and GEFS being the only ones showing much if anything at all, I'm not getting my hopes up yet

GFS did pretty good with the last winter storm. 

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Enhanced Risk for severe tomorrow for winds (some gusts 75 or greater).

It's a good thing the line of storms will roll through by about 2pm for most of us. Could be a much more significant day for us if the front were faster (as it will be East of 95)

I think the synoptic winds will be the big story, not so much the squall line, especially West of 85. I could see a few spin up tornadoes, in the favored region (mt airy, to Roanoke)

[Brick Tamland]

Started a thread on the severe threat.

 

[olafminesaw]

Lol!

[olafminesaw]

[gopack42]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Yuck

[StantonParkHoya]

I’ll take 78 and sunny every day of the week

[eyewall]

Yeah I think it is safe to say winter is done and we move on to Spring.

[NorthHillsWx]

31 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I think it is safe to say winter is done and we move on to Spring.

Coming off a good winter it is much easier to say this. 

[greendave]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Coming off a good winter it is much easier to say this. 

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. This winter - the story of the haves and have nots. IMBY - we had storms to track, but ultimately still below average snowfall for the year. In a year where New Orleans, Florida panhandle, CharlestonSC, grand strand and tidewater VA out performed us, its a tough pill to swallow when several "big dogs" were possible, but never came to fruition. In general I acknowledge the "southeastern states" region - probably a solid B+ but that is very sporadic/inconsistent. For me personally, given the extremely high potential of multiple events, but with ultimately low results I give this winter a C-/D+. That being said, I've accepted the fact, applied first dose of Prodiamine before yesterday's storms, the bass will soon be moving up to spawn, and maybe - just maybe (weather related) the morels will give a good flush this year.

[Snow dog]

21 minutes ago, greendave said:

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. This winter - the story of the haves and have nots. IMBY - we had storms to track, but ultimately still below average snowfall for the year. In a year where New Orleans, Florida panhandle, CharlestonSC, grand strand and tidewater VA out performed us, its a tough pill to swallow when several "big dogs" were possible, but never came to fruition. In general I acknowledge the "southeastern states" region - probably a solid B+ but that is very sporadic/inconsistent. For me personally, given the extremely high potential of multiple events, but with ultimately low results I give this winter a C-/D+. That being said, I've accepted the fact, applied first dose of Prodiamine before yesterday's storms, the bass will soon be moving up to spawn, and maybe - just maybe (weather related) the morels will give a good flush this year.

Us folks in Upstate SC can identify with you!  We too got very little, while virtually every direction around us  cashed in during at least one of the events.  For  the Jan 10 event, the folks to our southwest were getting hammered (4+"), but by the time it arrived in the upstate, it was mostly a flurry fest.  Got MAYBE 1/2" at best.  The event in Feb was nothing more than a few flurries.  I have to give the winter weather a 'D' hear in Greenville, SC.  I sure long for the late 80s!  Got back to back 10+" snows in '87 & '88.  Oh well...

[yotaman]

1 hour ago, Snow dog said:

Us folks in Upstate SC can identify with you!  We too got very little, while virtually every direction around us  cashed in during at least one of the events.  For  the Jan 10 event, the folks to our southwest were getting hammered (4+"), but by the time it arrived in the upstate, it was mostly a flurry fest.  Got MAYBE 1/2" at best.  The event in Feb was nothing more than a few flurries.  I have to give the winter weather a 'D' hear in Greenville, SC.  I sure long for the late 80s!  Got back to back 10+" snows in '87 & '88.  Oh well...

It is just wild that y'all got so little while those of us along the coast got so much. This winter is a solid A for me. Not only did we get 5" of snow, but we also got 1/4" of ice and wall to wall cold for much of January and at least half of February. The only thing that would have made it an A+ would have been trading the ice for snow.

[jpbart]

2 hours ago, Snow dog said:

Us folks in Upstate SC can identify with you!  We too got very little, while virtually every direction around us  cashed in during at least one of the events.  For  the Jan 10 event, the folks to our southwest were getting hammered (4+"), but by the time it arrived in the upstate, it was mostly a flurry fest.  Got MAYBE 1/2" at best.  The event in Feb was nothing more than a few flurries.  I have to give the winter weather a 'D' hear in Greenville, SC.  I sure long for the late 80s!  Got back to back 10+" snows in '87 & '88.  Oh well...

Try living in Columbia, SC.  Complete failure while others score is the new normal.  We did get something like 1/2" that lasted about 3 hours and there was much joyous celebration over that.  Otherwise, cold rain is our normal winter outcome, with some black ice when the cold arrives after the main event.

[GaWx]

Obviously, just like for 2017-8, it was an easy A+ here with 3” of sleet/snow along with a little ZR with over 2” of this sleet likely making it the biggest sleet in history, the first wintry precip of any kind/amount in 7 years. Getting any measurable in a winter is a win due to the rarity. Avg sleet/snow is only 0.2”. Also, temps averaged ~1BN.

[NorthHillsWx]

I’ll give this winter an A. We finished with 5.8” of snow over three events (0.6”, 1.3”, 3.9”), had 2 winter storm warnings though only one verified and had two all-snow events. We stayed below freezing during all 3 events and my road was covered all three times as well. Also, the wall to wall cold Jan and cold second half of Feb made it feel like a proper winter. The only shortcomings this winter were the lack of a bona fide blockbuster storm (still waiting since 2017-18) and given the cold, it did feel like there was potential wasted. That being said, we recorded measurable snow on 4 days and saw trace amounts 3 additional times. For Raleigh, that is a solid amount of events. Also boosting the grade, the low expectations leading into winter with above normal temps and below normal snow forecasted pretty much across the board and given the ongoing snow drought, just breaking it would’ve felt like a win. To have the Feb system really trend positively for the RDU area to an all-snow coastal was icing on the cake. 

[kvegas-wx]

7 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I think it is safe to say winter is done and we move on to Spring.

One more shot baby. March Madness gonna bring the hammer down with one last shot from the polar vortex.  It all comes down to timing (and sun angle of course)  

[StantonParkHoya]

I’m going A+ simply for the 2-day snow a few weeks ago where we had silver dollar heavies like we were in Jackson Hole

[wncsnow]

So those of you in the triangle consider a below average snowfall winter an A or A+? Man yall have forgotten what a true A+ winter is. 

[suzook]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

Obviously, just like for 2017-8, it was an easy A+ here with 3” of sleet/snow along with a little ZR with over 2” of this sleet likely making it the biggest sleet in history, the first wintry precip of any kind/amount in 7 years. Getting any measurable in a winter is a win due to the rarity. Avg sleet/snow is only 0.2”. Also, temps averaged ~1BN.

It seemed much colder due to the prolonged extreme cold days we had. But throw in the way above normal days we had too, and it only wound up being just a touch below normal. Definitely an odd winter for sure.

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, suzook said:

It seemed much colder due to the prolonged extreme cold days we had. But throw in the way above normal days we had too, and it only wound up being just a touch below normal. Definitely an odd winter for sure.

We also just forget what a below normal winter feels like. The cold stretches were fairly impressive but mainly because they were sustained rather than because of near record cold. In fact, the coldest low of 15 at GSO is above the average coldest temp of 9. The min-max was somewhat more impressive at 23 vs the average of 27, putting it in about the 25th percentile.

[NorthHillsWx]

25 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

So those of you in the triangle consider a below average snowfall winter an A or A+? Man yall have forgotten what a true A+ winter is. 

Being IMBY we received more than the airport in the last storm, where I’m sure this was taken, we were above average. To me, average-above average snow, multiple events and warnings, and prolonged cold is an A for winter. We had much more snow in the 2018-19 winter (6-8”) but it was all from one event and the rest of the winter was a complete torch with nothing to track and I’m pretty sure I graded that as a “C”. So no, snow totals do not always dictate the grade of a winter. Seeing all snow events and prolonged cold is unusual for here in ANY winter. Heck, we had two snows where the temp for the duration of the event was below 28 and I saw snow in Raleigh at 20 degrees! That’s pretty rare. Solid A 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Being IMBY we received more than the airport in the last storm, where I’m sure this was taken, we were above average. To me, average-above average snow, multiple events and warnings, and prolonged cold is an A for winter. We had much more snow in the 2018-19 winter (6-8”) but it was all from one event and the rest of the winter was a complete torch with nothing to track and I’m pretty sure I graded that as a “C”. So no, snow totals do not always dictate the grade of a winter. Seeing all snow events and prolonged cold is unusual for here in ANY winter. Heck, we had two snows where the temp for the duration of the event was below 28 and I saw snow in Raleigh at 20 degrees! That’s pretty rare. Solid A 

 In this area Mother Nature (flowers, bugs, pollen) is saying we had a cold enough winter. Azaleas are still largely not out yet. That compares to some recent ones when they were out in early Feb! Also, I saw no early bugs. They’ve started coming out only over the last week or so: sand gnats, mosquitoes, wasps, etc. My favorite thing about winter is the lack of bugs to bug me. The pine pollen has been out for 1-2 weeks but that’s normal timing.

 I’m already looking forward to next winter just like I do for every winter, my favorite season!

[eyewall]

I would go with a solid B for this winter. I reserve A ratings for a 6 inch plus event having to occur. Either way it felt much better because of the previous years of nothing.

[wncsnow]

C- here. 2.2 inches total. Still haven't verified a warning criteria storm since 2022. Only 1 warning criteria met since 2019. A truly awful stretch for snow. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I would go with a solid B for this winter. I reserve A ratings for a 6 inch plus event having to occur. Either way it felt much better because of the previous years of nothing.

Normally I’d agree here but given we hadn’t seen snow in 3 years the bar was lowered. Also, you missed the second January storm . Next year is the big storm year I can feel it 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 In this area Mother Nature (flowers, bugs, pollen) are saying we had a cold enough winter. Azaleas are still largely not out yet. That compares to some recent ones when they were out in early Feb! Also, I saw no early bugs. They’ve started coming out only over the last week or so: sand gnats, mosquitoes, wasps, etc. My favorite thing about winter is the lack of bugs to bug me. The pine pollen has been out for 1-2 weeks but that’s normal timing.

 I’m already looking forward to next winter just like I do for every winter, my favorite season!

You deserved it. What an awesome storm for your area