Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Not for me. As long as wx is happening (which is 24/7 all year long), it’s always possible I’ll post about it in obs thread. Ma Nature never gets shut-eye. Posts would be in here when looking ahead.

 Freezes are on the way!

I need a break after staring at every model run since Christmas 

[GaWx]

New Euro Weeklies: Not surprisingly based on recent cooling of model consensus, Mar 3-9 SE now has NN temps vs AN on prior 3 runs. The NN is really a mix of BN to AN. So, no torch domination til at least mid March. Otherwise, the rest of the run’s averaged weeks remain AN/mild to warm Mar 10-Apr 6, similar to the last 5 runs. 

[BooneWX]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Not for me. As long as wx is happening (which is 24/7 all year long), it’s always possible I’ll post about it in obs thread. Ma Nature never gets shut-eye. Posts would be in here when looking ahead.

 Freezes are on the way!

You’re certainly not included in my remarks. I’ll remain active as well. Your analysis are a gold mine year-around brother!
 

Just got a bit sappy because the forum was bumping this winter. Vintage SE forum in my mind. 

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

You’re certainly not included in my remarks. I’ll remain active as well. Your analysis are a gold mine year-around brother!
 

Just got a bit sappy because the forum was bumping this winter. Vintage SE forum in my mind. 

Thank you! Ironically, Holy Barney! Mainly for entertainment since it is out in fantasyland on the potentially drunk Happy Hour run: GFS has winter briefly return Mar 10-12 with temps BN even vs midwinter normals including hard freezes for most well inland locations and freezes almost down to Hogtown, FL! Even daytime highs are cold with upper 30s to 40s for many. This is from a rapidly plunging Arctic high. It will very likely not be anywhere near this cold then on the next run. So, enjoy it while it is showing up.

Barney says “Hey boys and girls!” Does Barney drink?

[StantonParkHoya]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thank you! Ironically, Holy Barney! Mainly for entertainment since it is out in fantasyland on the potentially drunk Happy Hour run: GFS has winter briefly return Mar 10-12 with temps BN even vs midwinter normals including hard freezes for most well inland locations and freezes almost down to Hogtown, FL! Even daytime highs are cold with upper 30s to 40s for many. This is from a rapidly plunging Arctic high. It will very likely not be anywhere near this cold then on the next run. So, enjoy it while it is showing up.

Barney says “Hey boys and girls!” Does Barney drink?

-20BN for Raleigh off an average high of 65 is still only 45 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

-20BN for Raleigh off an average high of 65 is still only 45 

RDU normal high is only 61 on Mar 10th. The actual WB GFS output shows a high on that day of only 38. That’s 13-14 below the mid Jan normal highs! Of course it won’t be on the next run, regardless.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

Edit: Record low high is 38. There have been 2 measurable snows on 3/10. One had 8”!! That day’s high was 40. The other day with measurable snow had a high of 42. Thus, this cold of an airmass could easily be cold enough to produce snow with the right storm track.

Update: Not unexpectedly, the 0Z GFS had nothing of the sort.

[olafminesaw]

Wednesday could certainly be an interesting weather day

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like we might have the first threat of severe season. Although, it feels like severe season is year-round here now.

[WXNewton]

12z EPS still entertaining some probability around the 8th-9th timeframe.

 

[GaWx]

This from Dr. Levi Cowan:

In the tweet below he said:

“My personal mission to bring hurricane science, data, and forecasts to the public would not be possible without the weather observations, doppler radar stations, computer models, hurricane hunter aircraft, and weather satellites provided by NOAA and the NWS. Your favorite weather apps, TV meteorologists, and private weather companies would also be unable to function without this data or the civil servants who live and breathe it to synthesize it into public safety information.

All of these benefits cost each taxpayer the equivalent of a few cups of coffee per year, and surveys show most would be willing to pay much more. The American weather enterprise saves many, many times more money than it costs to run, making it one of the biggest bangs for your buck in the government. 

The impact of quality weather forecasts and infrastructure on society is multiplied many-fold by preventing economic disruptions, keeping public transportation efficient, and providing lead time to prepare for and mitigate disasters. Most importantly, it saves priceless lives.

Careful, long-term plans to streamline or reorient the weather enterprise in an evolving world are not bad, but *this plan* is insane. A feverish rush to take a cleaver to this workforce is self-destructive and dangerous to Americans who rely on the services they provide.”

—————————

My comments: Massive cuts to the life-saving, very efficiently run NWS/NOAA would be very stupid and dangerous imho. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail!

Edit: Of course as wx enthusiasts, most of us are probably going to be biased against cuts.

 

 

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

This from Dr. Levi Cowan:

In the tweet below he said:

“My personal mission to bring hurricane science, data, and forecasts to the public would not be possible without the weather observations, doppler radar stations, computer models, hurricane hunter aircraft, and weather satellites provided by NOAA and the NWS. Your favorite weather apps, TV meteorologists, and private weather companies would also be unable to function without this data or the civil servants who live and breathe it to synthesize it into public safety information.

All of these benefits cost each taxpayer the equivalent of a few cups of coffee per year, and surveys show most would be willing to pay much more. The American weather enterprise saves many, many times more money than it costs to run, making it one of the biggest bangs for your buck in the government. 

The impact of quality weather forecasts and infrastructure on society is multiplied many-fold by preventing economic disruptions, keeping public transportation efficient, and providing lead time to prepare for and mitigate disasters. Most importantly, it saves priceless lives.

Careful, long-term plans to streamline or reorient the weather enterprise in an evolving world are not bad, but *this plan* is insane. A feverish rush to take a cleaver to this workforce is self-destructive and dangerous to Americans who rely on the services they provide.”

—————————

My comments: Massive cuts to the life-saving, very efficiently run NWS/NOAA would be very stupid and dangerous imho. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail!

Edit: Of course as wx enthusiasts, most of us are probably going to be biased against cuts.

 

 

I warned of this a while back on here and many said it would never happen. Well here we are....

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I warned of this a while back on here and many said it would never happen. Well here we are....

 

The good news is that it hasn’t actually occurred yet. With enough pushback/protest from Levi and others, hopefully that would make a difference and keep cuts, if any, reasonable. Silence would be the worst thing because it implies being ok with big cuts. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, GaWx said:

 

The good news is that it hasn’t actually occurred yet. With enough pushback/protest from Levi and others, hopefully that would make a difference and keep any cuts, if any, reasonable. Silence would be the worst thing because it implies being ok with big cuts. 

I don't think the current regime cares about protest. The big cuts to the Forest Service, Park Service, etc. and all the pushback on that didn't stop them. 

[dsaur]

On 2/25/2025 at 3:02 PM, GaWx said:

All I’m saying is that the MJO is forecasted by most models to be in either phase 1 or 2 in early Mar, which on average have been cooler than normal (especially the coldest phase on avg, 2):

 

 Those are only averages. So, it could easily end up not BN. The other indices (including EPO) say that a strong cold push or multiday period of BN in the SE US in early Mar will be a challenge though of course not impossible, especially in NC based on model progs. Even if it is BN for a few days then, that’s of course far from meaning a NC snowstorm outside of the mountains is likely.

 It is important to realize that although the Euro Weeklies have done pretty well this winter, the Euro ops have had a cold bias overall, especially beyond 5 days. Remember the many Euro Barney outbreaks that ended up being no more than a Dino? That’s despite the actual cold outbreaks we had.

It will be cold enough this week and it will be wet enough this week.  All it ever takes is timing....and a long list of unlikely scenarios and happenstances, lol.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I don't think the current regime cares about protest. The big cuts to the Forest Service, Park Service, etc. and all the pushback on that didn't stop them. 

 

[wncsnow]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

And yet many still think this is a "good idea" and they "should have replied to the email". This is public safety at stake. 

[wncsnow]

Euro still says one last hurrah for the mountains 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Euro still says one last hurrah for the mountains 

As you know the Euro op day 11 is of little value other than entertainment and it often changes substantially from run to run, regardless. But mountain upslope snow around this time wouldn’t be surprising.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

As you know the Euro op day 11 is of little value other than entertainment and it often changes substantially from run to run, regardless. But mountain upslope snow around this time wouldn’t be surprising.

If that comes to fruition it would be hard not to chase one last snow event this year 

[wncsnow]

The upslope potential is significant 

[EarlGrey]

We have a Fire Weather Watch tommorow now. Gusts around 20 to 35mph with humidity 20 to 25%.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Euro still says one last hurrah for the mountains 

Here’s the 12Z Euro snowfall at 10:1 through the same time:

 

[GaWx]

New Euro Weeklies: mild to warm Mar 10th through Apr 14th

[StantonParkHoya]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

New Euro Weeklies: mild to warm Mar 10th through Apr 14th

As prophecy foretold 

[suzook]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

New Euro Weeklies: mild to warm Mar 10th through Apr 14th

Woohoo! Bring on spring!

[Brick Tamland]

Still looking like a severe threat here for Wednesday.

[EarlGrey]

It’s so windy and dry outside right now. Is this what the Santa Ana is like?

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, EarlGrey said:

It’s so windy and dry outside right now. Is this what the Santa Ana is like?

Blows my mind that people are dumb enough to burn in these conditions too. 

[NorthHillsWx]

20 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

As prophecy foretold 

This weather is awesome. We had a good winter, it’s March, I’m happy with it

[Occluded Front]

21 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Blows my mind that people are dumb enough to burn in these conditions too. 

Some of these idiots need to face a ten thousand dollar non negotiable fine or 1 year jail to showcase their stupidity and made to replant trees lost.