StantonParkHoya Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Today’s Euro Weeklies: mild to warm all weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: Today’s Euro Weeklies: mild to warm all weeks Not blasting you but Is this the same Euro that forecasted the northern half of NC getting plastered with a foot plus only to take it away a few runs later? The only snow we received last Wednesday in Surry con was light and never stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 34 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Not blasting you but Is this the same Euro that forecasted the northern half of NC getting plastered with a foot plus only to take it away a few runs later? The only snow we received last Wednesday in Surry con was light and never stuck. The Euro Weeklies, though far from perfect especially for further out weeks, have done pretty well overall this winter from a few weeks out with the temperature anomalies. They called pretty well the late Nov/early Dec chill, the warmup that followed, the Jan cold, the late Jan/early Feb warmup, and the cold in mid Feb that followed that though they earlier had mid-Feb as mild. So, mid-Feb cold wasn’t seen as far out as some other periods. Could they be wrong especially in weeks 4-6? Absolutely, of course. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Today’s Euro Weeklies: mild to warm all weeks West based Nina and Mtn Torq. Depending on MJO that'll probably be correct. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 6 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Looks almost canonical Nina. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Today’s Euro Weeklies: mild to warm all weeks Despite this, a rather chilly period is on the way for Mar 2-4 with 2 cold nights and 2 cool days, especially up in NC/upstate SC/N GA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 It is looking pretty clear that winter is about over outside the mountains. Probably time to start thinking about severe weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Speaking of severe weather season - does anyone else get a kick out of the fact that every single year is supposed to be a repeat of 2011? Severe weather weenies are almost as weird as us winter weather weenies except they have a weird kink for destruction. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, BooneWX said: Speaking of severe weather season - does anyone else get a kick out of the fact that every single year is supposed to be a repeat of 2011? Severe weather weenies are almost as weird as us winter weather weenies except they have a weird kink for destruction. 100%. A strange bunch indeed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I may be a bit unusual for a wx enthusiast in that in addition to a good winter as well as some other things, I also enjoy relatively uneventful (what many weenies consider boring) comfortable wx for walking or even just sitting in my BY. Although severe wx is certainly exciting, I don’t actually hope for it due to risks to lives/property. Being a homeowner in normal wx is enough of a headache. I especially fear tornadoes. I’ve never in person actually seen a funnel, not even a water spout! I’d like that to continue lol. Looking ahead, it still looks like a SE cooldown and freeze in much of NC is possible on 3/2. Otherwise, it looks like a mix of mainly NN and AN into early Mar before it possibly becomes more consistently AN. This is despite the MJO being in cooler than average phases for late Feb/March. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hush now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This Barney snow machine on day 11-12 on the 12Z Euro is of practically no forecasting value. Also, the Euro op has been too cold on many runs this winter, regardless, with numerous false Barneys. This is nothing more than entertainment that far out. The forecasts for indices like PNA, AO, and NAO actually favor warmth. The MJO though is forecasted to be in cool phases fwiw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, GaWx said: This Barney snow machine on day 11-12 on the 12Z Euro is of practically no forecasting value. Also, the Euro op has been too cold on many runs this winter, regardless, with numerous false Barneys. This is nothing more than entertainment that far out. The forecasts for indices like PNA, AO, and NAO actually favor warmth. The MJO though is forecasted to be in cool phases fwiw. It would be nice to see one more snow before spring. You mentioned the MJO in favorable phases , which they have been this winter. Don’t remember the last time we were in Phase 8,1 In the same winter. A lot of the recent winter have been spent in 4,5 and 6. Also you mentioned the AO, NAO and PNA. So which outranks which MJO or AO PNA and NAO? Or does the NAO and PNA and AO eventually follow suite with the MJO? Just trying to lean how this all works 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, GaWx said: This Barney snow machine on day 11-12 on the 12Z Euro is of practically no forecasting value. Also, the Euro op has been too cold on many runs this winter, regardless, with numerous false Barneys. This is nothing more than entertainment that far out. The forecasts for indices like PNA, AO, and NAO actually favor warmth. The MJO though is forecasted to be in cool phases fwiw. Yeah, and if there's anything to it at all, it would be further North than depicted unless the Indexes are off base. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: It would be nice to see one more snow before spring. You mentioned the MJO in favorable phases , which they have been this winter. Don’t remember the last time we were in Phase 8,1 In the same winter. A lot of the recent winter have been spent in 4,5 and 6. Also you mentioned the AO, NAO and PNA. So which outranks which MJO or AO PNA and NAO? Or does the NAO and PNA and AO eventually follow suite with the MJO? Just trying to lean how this all works Larry's research using Knoxville as the Site showed mixed results but, clearly showed the MJO apparently had great influence. Alot depends on strength of pattern Driver's as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Lock it in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 41 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: It would be nice to see one more snow before spring. You mentioned the MJO in favorable phases , which they have been this winter. Don’t remember the last time we were in Phase 8,1 In the same winter. A lot of the recent winter have been spent in 4,5 and 6. Also you mentioned the AO, NAO and PNA. So which outranks which MJO or AO PNA and NAO? Or does the NAO and PNA and AO eventually follow suite with the MJO? Just trying to lean how this all works All I’m saying is that the MJO is forecasted by most models to be in either phase 1 or 2 in early Mar, which on average have been cooler than normal (especially the coldest phase on avg, 2): Those are only averages. So, it could easily end up not BN. The other indices (including EPO) say that a strong cold push or multiday period of BN in the SE US in early Mar will be a challenge though of course not impossible, especially in NC based on model progs. Even if it is BN for a few days then, that’s of course far from meaning a NC snowstorm outside of the mountains is likely. It is important to realize that although the Euro Weeklies have done pretty well this winter, the Euro ops have had a cold bias overall, especially beyond 5 days. Remember the many Euro Barney outbreaks that ended up being no more than a Dino? That’s despite the actual cold outbreaks we had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Not possible, I’ll only believe results that crush the tidewater and beaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: Go ahead and send that s*it to Ohio. In more relevant news, loving the weather so far this week. Milder highs and decently chilly lows are perfect for the end of February. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 The 12z EPS was a bit colder for Mar 2-3 and Mar 8-10 in the SE vs 0Z and even moreso vs yesterday’s 12Z. It has solidly BN periods (but nothing severe) throughout SE then surrounded by AN periods….so two weeks average NN. Pattern not much different though. Take this modest snow signal (fwiw) with a gigantic grain since it is out in fantasyland: Regardless, there’s a good chance for two nice upslope periods in the first 10 days of March. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 NOAA with salt in the wound with this post 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 The AI on pivotal now shows snowfall accumulation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Being it requires “Barney” cold to get below freezing in a couple weeks I’d say I’m happy with this winter and ready to move on with weather like the past two days. Wouldn’t mind a few sunny chilly days and the frost/freeze cycle to continue into April for bugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Being it requires “Barney” cold to get below freezing in a couple weeks I’d say I’m happy with this winter and ready to move on with weather like the past two days. Wouldn’t mind a few sunny chilly days and the frost/freeze cycle to continue into April for bugs This is what I’ve been saying. So many people with “it can snow in March”. Sure, Jan! It just either takes -25 anomalies, a vigorous ULL, or one of the most dynamic systems of all time! March snow is not “normal”, which is why it’s a Spring month. Blooms and bumblebees and first sunburns are normal. People need to accept it and move on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 0Z GFS run overall is coldest in quite some time. Though not to the Barney degree, it is colder for both cold snaps of early Mar. Take with huge grain this Kuchera clown (a day earlier than 12Z Euro snow): Edit: 0Z Euro lost most of its NC snow outside of the mountains (no surprise of course). 6Z GFS lost most of the 0Z GFS’ snow outside of mountains. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Best opportunity for next freeze in NC Triad/Triangle is Mon AM with some chance Sun AM especially Triad. Most likely not hard freeze in most of that region as of now, but that may change especially for a Monday. This is all per RDU NWS forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Wednesday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:06 PM The offseason for this site has arrived! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:16 PM 21 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The offseason for this site has arrived! Not for me. As long as wx is happening (which is 24/7 all year long), it’s always possible I’ll post about it in obs thread. Ma Nature never gets shut-eye. Posts would be in here when looking ahead. Freezes are on the way! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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