Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[blueheels2]

21 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Who on earth would want a cold April 

Me I hate summer and spring.  Fall and winter forever!!!  But I have to work outside in it a lot and I get sick of the heat.

[GaWx]

- Euro Weeklies are mainly mild 3/10+.
- Next 2 weeks average near to slightly below normal on 12Z ensemble consensus (ups and downs). Nothing dramatic.

[Jmoon]

On 2/21/2025 at 6:21 PM, StantonParkHoya said:

Who on earth would want a cold April 

Try working out in the heat landscaping and doing firewood in the heat and humidity year round and see how much you like it. If you did you might feel a little different about it.

[gtg947h]

6 minutes ago, Jmoon said:

Try working out in the heat landscaping and doing firewood in the heat and humidity year round and see how much you like it. If you did you might feel a little different about it.

I'm outside before dawn every morning, and spend most of my weekend free time outdoors too.  I'm sick of cold in the mornings and tired of trying to work on stuff with cold numb hands.  And it seems like it's been an especially cold winter this year...

When I built my shop in 2015, I was outside almost all weekend for hours, even in the worst of the summer heat.  As long as I have sunscreen, water, and a shower at the end of the day I'm much happier when it's warm.

[cbmclean]

I like every season in its time.  I feel very fortunate to have had a real winter this year (by SE standards) and I'll enjoy spring.

[GaWx]

On 2/21/2025 at 6:21 PM, StantonParkHoya said:

Who on earth would want a cold April 

 

3 hours ago, Jmoon said:

Try working out in the heat landscaping and doing firewood in the heat and humidity year round and see how much you like it. If you did you might feel a little different about it.

 

3 hours ago, gtg947h said:

I'm outside before dawn every morning, and spend most of my weekend free time outdoors too.  I'm sick of cold in the mornings and tired of trying to work on stuff with cold numb hands.  And it seems like it's been an especially cold winter this year...

When I built my shop in 2015, I was outside almost all weekend for hours, even in the worst of the summer heat.  As long as I have sunscreen, water, and a shower at the end of the day I'm much happier when it's warm.

 This is a great example of different strokes for different folks. I prefer down here in S GA below normal temperatures every month of the year because warmth and humidity is so dominant for much of the year and is getting worse. Also, the cold down here is fairly tame compared to most other parts of the U.S. Moderate cold is very refreshing to me. Also, I tend to sweat very easily (more than most). I love walking but mainly do it inside on my treadmill when dewpoints are 55+. I’d rather be outside. My favorite temps for walking are 40s to 50s (with dewpoints 40s or lower).
 

 There is no right or wrong answer overall. It is all about preference.

 The following 50 second video is somewhat relevant though not completely because it is addressing morally right or wrong vs preference in regard to parenting:

 

[Daniel Boone]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

- Euro Weeklies are mainly mild 3/10+.
- Next 2 weeks average near to slightly below normal on 12Z ensemble consensus (ups and downs). Nothing dramatic.

I think we need Blocking to have a last hoorah in the upper SE/MA and Tn Valley. As of now Models not showing that at all. A tall PNA Ridge could do it for the Tn Valley but, that's not too promising either. What's your thoughts ?

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I think we need Blocking to have a last hoorah in the upper SE/MA and Tn Valley. As of now Models not showing that at all. A tall PNA Ridge could do it for the Tn Valley but, that's not too promising either. What's your thoughts ?

What is the nearest major city to you?

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, GaWx said:

What is the nearest major city to you?

Knoxville. Although I'm north of there in SWVA.

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Knoxville. Although I'm north of there in SWVA.

Knoxville 2”+ snowstorms Mar-Apr since 1971:

4/6-7/1971 weak +PNA, +EPO, strong +NAO, weak -AO

3/25/1972 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO

3/10/1975 weak -PNA, -EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 3

3/1/1980 moderate +PNA, -EPO, weak +NAO, weak -AO, weak phase 3

4/18/1983 moderate +PNA, neutral EPO, moderate -NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 2

4/3/1987 strong +PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, strong -AO, moderate phase 3

3/13/1993 neutral PNA, -EPO, moderate +NAO, moderate +AO, strong phase 2

3/12/2022 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, moderate +NAO, weak +AO, moderate phase 2

 

 Did these 8 dates have any index tendencies?

-Not ENSO as it was all over the board.

-PNA neutral to +

-EPO neutral to -  

-NAO neutral to +….interesting

-AO all over the board

-MJO phases 2 and 3 (cold phases in Mar, Apr)

[tarheelwx]

Listening to my weather radio this morning as I was getting ready for church, the forecast for the northern mountains was calling for wind chills this week of -120!!!   It did this multiple times for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame.   That’s a good one. 
TW

[NorthHillsWx]

As I sit here and watch the very last snow disappear from the shade in my backyard, it’s hard not to think back on this season and how fortunate we have been to track so many threats and see the board alive almost the entire winter. The discussion and insight some of the experienced posters on here offer is invaluable and literally cannot be replicated outside the forum. This season was one of the most challenging and chaotic to forecast from start to finish I can remember and this board was all over it. I’m thankful for a decent snow year for the triangle folks. I know the Charlotte and foothills folks are still waiting their turn for a good storm, but almost the entire forum saw winter weather. Maybe one more threat materializes, I’m sure the mountain folks are far from done with their winter, but if it is done here, it was a fun ride and this place makes it so much more enjoyable when a storm works out. Thanks to everyone one on here who contributes and gives an amateur on here like myself a source of info I cannot get anywhere else 

[Daniel Boone]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

Knoxville 2”+ snowstorms Mar-Apr since 1971:

4/6-7/1971 weak +PNA, +EPO, strong +NAO, weak -AO

3/25/1972 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO

3/10/1975 weak -PNA, -EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 3

3/1/1980 moderate +PNA, -EPO, weak +NAO, weak -AO, weak phase 3

4/18/1983 moderate +PNA, neutral EPO, moderate -NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 2

4/3/1987 strong +PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, strong -AO, moderate phase 3

3/13/1993 neutral PNA, -EPO, moderate +NAO, moderate +AO, strong phase 2

3/12/2022 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, moderate +NAO, weak +AO, moderate phase 2

 

 Did these 8 dates have any index tendencies?

-Not ENSO as it was all over the board.

-PNA neutral to +

-EPO neutral to -  

-NAO neutral to +….interesting

-AO all over the board

-MJO phases 2 and 3 (cold phases in Mar, Apr)

Thank you Larry !! I remember all those very well. MJO appears to be the big driver irt Snowfall during March/April. March '93 really surprised me being +NAO.  Post this in the Main Forum and in the TN Valley if you don't mind man. Appreciate it !

[eyewall]

34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

As I sit here and watch the very last snow disappear from the shade in my backyard, it’s hard not to think back on this season and how fortunate we have been to track so many threats and see the board alive almost the entire winter. The discussion and insight some of the experienced posters on here offer is invaluable and literally cannot be replicated outside the forum. This season was one of the most challenging and chaotic to forecast from start to finish I can remember and this board was all over it. I’m thankful for a decent snow year for the triangle folks. I know the Charlotte and foothills folks are still waiting their turn for a good storm, but almost the entire forum saw winter weather. Maybe one more threat materializes, I’m sure the mountain folks are far from done with their winter, but if it is done here, it was a fun ride and this place makes it so much more enjoyable when a storm works out. Thanks to everyone one on here who contributes and gives an amateur on here like myself a source of info I cannot get anywhere else 

the 19th/20th event saved it for us but certainly I know for many in the forum it was a lot of disappointing close calls with little results. I definitely feel for them. If anyone wants a snow chase, there may be some mountain upslope chances in the next week or so.

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Thank you Larry !! I remember all those very well. MJO appears to be the big driver irt Snowfall during March/April. March '93 really surprised me being +NAO.  Post this in the Main Forum and in the TN Valley if you don't mind man. Appreciate it !

YW. I’m next going to check the SOI. Although I already checked the seasonal ENSO and found no tendency, I didn’t check the daily SOIs for each storm.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Thank you Larry !! I remember all those very well. MJO appears to be the big driver irt Snowfall during March/April. March '93 really surprised me being +NAO.  Post this in the Main Forum and in the TN Valley if you don't mind man. Appreciate it !

I’m ok if you’d like to copy and paste my post in the TN Valley subforum and give me credit for putting it together. Thanks.

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

Knoxville 2”+ snowstorms Mar-Apr since 1971:

4/6-7/1971 weak +PNA, +EPO, strong +NAO, weak -AO

3/25/1972 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO

3/10/1975 weak -PNA, -EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 3

3/1/1980 moderate +PNA, -EPO, weak +NAO, weak -AO, weak phase 3

4/18/1983 moderate +PNA, neutral EPO, moderate -NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 2

4/3/1987 strong +PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, strong -AO, moderate phase 3

3/13/1993 neutral PNA, -EPO, moderate +NAO, moderate +AO, strong phase 2

3/12/2022 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, moderate +NAO, weak +AO, moderate phase 2

 

 Did these 8 dates have any index tendencies?

-Not ENSO as it was all over the board.

-PNA neutral to +

-EPO neutral to -  

-NAO neutral to +….interesting

-AO all over the board

-MJO phases 2 and 3 (cold phases in Mar, Apr)

Unfortunately I had forgotten that the daily SOIs go back only to 1991:

3/13/1993: -9

3/12/2022: +16

 So this tells me nothing.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

I really think the extreme -AO leading up to last weeks storm was crucial as it all but ensured our cold airmass would be deep and sufficient for the storm. Suppression wasn’t why some lost, lack of an early phase and dominant NS was the main issue. Storm track was textbook for the Carolina’s. Larry sharing stats about highly -AO corresponding to SE winter weather in February was telling. Ways to win in a Nina…

[olafminesaw]

Torch incoming 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies suggest that the winter is nearly over. What I mean by that is no week-long period of BN temp signals for most of the E US. Other than New England being NN 3/3-9 and FL being BN to NN the first 3 weeks, the rest of the weeks are dominated by AN temp signals.

[snowinnc]

While I’m obviously happy that RDU finally got some good events, I absolutely feel awful for our posters in Charlotte and the foothills. I’m going to be cheering for them hard next winter. They are definitely due!

[dsaur]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 

 This is a great example of different strokes for different folks. I prefer down here in S GA below normal temperatures every month of the year because warmth and humidity is so dominant for much of the year and is getting worse. Also, the cold down here is fairly tame compared to most other parts of the U.S. Moderate cold is very refreshing to me. Also, I tend to sweat very easily (more than most). I love walking but mainly do it inside on my treadmill when dewpoints are 55+. I’d rather be outside. My favorite temps for walking are 40s to 50s (with dewpoints 40s or lower).
 

 There is no right or wrong answer overall. It is all about preference.

 The following 50 second video is somewhat relevant though not completely because it is addressing morally right or wrong vs preference in regard to parenting:

 

Circumstance changes too. Once I was no longer successful in chasing bikini babes, 75 was warm enough, and now I'm on blood thinner, 25 is low enough.  I still enjoy winter extremes as long as I can get propane, and they don't last too long in the teens, or below, but 75 is my tops the rest of the year. The only summer extreme I enjoy is 75 in July/Aug. California would be ok, if the cold nights were cold days at least half the time.  The way they have it now would make me irritable year round, lol. 25 to 75 and ip/sn once a month would be great, but I don't think that place exists on this planet. Once every few years an  f 0 sleetnado or a cat 1 snowacane would be great.

[StantonParkHoya]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies suggest that the winter is nearly over. What I mean by that is no week-long period of BN temp signals for most of the E US. Other than New England being NN 3/3-9 and FL being BN to NN the first 3 weeks, the rest of the weeks are dominated by AN temp signals.

Yeah, that’s the story. Southeast is heading to spring right on time. Enjoy it. Was a helluva winter folks!

[BooneWX]

3 hours ago, snowinnc said:

While I’m obviously happy that RDU finally got some good events, I absolutely feel awful for our posters in Charlotte and the foothills. I’m going to be cheering for them hard next winter. They are definitely due!

I keep telling myself that in hindsight maybe it was a good thing. None of the Helene affected regions had any major synoptic snow. While I love snow, many are pretty sick of any type of adverse weather in this region right now. 

[BooneWX]

Also not sure winter and tracking is done. The MJO is parked in phase 1 and the models playing catch up to the cold wouldn’t be a shocker after the past few months. It’s certainly not going to have the same strength and bite this time around but the mountains can get major events into April and the entire northern tier of the south is due for a March storm.

[StantonParkHoya]

38 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Also not sure winter and tracking is done. The MJO is parked in phase 1 and the models playing catch up to the cold wouldn’t be a shocker after the past few months. It’s certainly not going to have the same strength and bite this time around but the mountains can get major events into April and the entire northern tier of the south is due for a March storm.

High country could for sure be in the game still. My comments are for RDU which will be averaging 65+ degrees in 10 days. So it would take father of Barney type purples/whites to show up for a snow chance, and that’s not on any guidance.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

14 hours ago, snowinnc said:

While I’m obviously happy that RDU finally got some good events, I absolutely feel awful for our posters in Charlotte and the foothills. I’m going to be cheering for them hard next winter. They are definitely due!

Since I moved from Boone to Charlotte in the summer of 21, Charlotte has found every way to get screwed out if a good storm. Maybe I just need to move back to the mountains for CLT to have a chance lol. 

[Moonhowl]

11 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Also not sure winter and tracking is done. The MJO is parked in phase 1 and the models playing catch up to the cold wouldn’t be a shocker after the past few months. It’s certainly not going to have the same strength and bite this time around but the mountains can get major events into April and the entire northern tier of the south is due for a March storm.

I agree.  I am expecting the teleconnections to repeatedly go into a cold pattern throughout the spring.  I suspect any warm ups will be followed by more cold on up into the first week of May.  We will see...

[NorthHillsWx]

12z GFS brings back Barney after the first week in March 

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

12z GFS brings back Barney after the first week in March 

If there’s a shot, that’ll be the shot. Likely a bit more fleeting than anything prior this season but there’s probably at least one more good punch of cold air before we really shake up the Pacific pattern. After that, it’s a curtain call outside of the mountains. Perfectly fine with that if so… I’m always craving warmth with the time change.