Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[StantonParkHoya]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Very much fwiw, I think Barney hacked the 360 hour 12Z EPS and GEFS:

GaWx, do I have to tell you what a non-anomalously low height spells in the SE on March 5th?

[StantonParkHoya]

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The idea that tomorrow’s storm happens and then we jump to spring is absolutely false. Being stuck in phase 8 and the AO looks to tank again in early March. It’s far out but NAO goes to at least neutral at same time (and appears to be tanking). To me after some up and down weather to end February we will likely start March off cold with at least the chance of wintry weather. We lose the pacific though which has been nice through most of this winter. 

At what point do we jump to 87 degrees? We’ve been too BN for too long. It’s going to come back harshly.

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

At what point do we jump to 87 degrees? We’ve been too BN for too long. It’s going to come back harshly.

Probably in May

[BooneWX]

There’s usually no warmth until the state has stocked the last trout. It only warms up after the poachers net everything out of the delayed harvest water. Anecdotal, I know, but just an observation from the past.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

GaWx, do I have to tell you what a non-anomalously low height spells in the SE on March 5th?

No, I know:

 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

14 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Probably in May

lol are you on top of mt Mitchell? We will reach that before Easter

[Met1985]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

lol are you on top of mt Mitchell? We will reach that before Easter

Yall down east may hit that at the end of March maybe.  This season isn't like the past few.

[dsaur]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

No, I know:

 

 

Can you tell me where to get in line for the big winter storm in the first two weeks of March ?? I feel the calling.... It'll be 32 years since the blizzard.  Three and two are 5.  There are three bugs pictured above.  5 less three is two...and there have been two snows here this year!  Boom!!! Drop the mike.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, dsaur said:

Can you tell me where to get in line for the big winter storm in the first two weeks of March ?? I feel the calling.... It'll be 32 years since the blizzard.  Three and two are 5.  There are three bugs pictured above.  5 less three is two...and there have been two snows here this year!  Boom!!! Drop the mike.

Sounds good to me, Tony!

 And as Tony has often reminded us, don’t write off winter til after the Masters (mid April)!

 In the meantime, a full 5 weeks before the Masters, the 0Z EPS continues to show influence from a famous purple dinosaur (not dsaur lol): check out the cross polar flow! Coldest anomalies for any land region in the N Hem…sound familiar?

 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, dsaur said:

Can you tell me where to get in line for the big winter storm in the first two weeks of March ?? I feel the calling.... It'll be 32 years since the blizzard.  Three and two are 5.  There are three bugs pictured above.  5 less three is two...and there have been two snows here this year!  Boom!!! Drop the mike.

Well Tony and other SE snowlovers, there’s this pure entertainment value from the 12Z GFS for late March 2-3:

 

Of course, daytime Barney is there:

 

[Upstate Tiger]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Well Tony and other SE snowlovers, there’s this pure entertainment value from the 12Z GFS for late March 2-3:

 

Of course, daytime Barney is there:

 

I am looking for a March 93 re deaux during this time frame.  Of course it will have to overcome...

March sun angle - strong enought to melt glass

Soil Temps - like lava

Dry slot - like the parting of the Red Sea

Gulf of America thunderstorms - they will have to evacuate oil rigs

Warm nose - mid levels hotter than Chernobyl  

[suzook]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

No, I know:

 

 

Geez, no flies would be a blessing. My 1st summer down here in GA, and the flies are just insane.

[BooneWX]

Blasphemy in this group to say this, but I’ll be rooting for it not to verify (likely won’t anyways). I’m pulling for an unlikely but dramatic turn to spring with a SER that’s absolutely pumping heat into the southeast. It’s been a terrible sick season and I’m tired of these weak strung out systems being the limited excitement. Towering cumulonimbus season is one of the best times of year.

[GaWx]

New Euro Weeklies fwiw have a colder signal for the week Mar 3-9:

Yesterday it had a decent mild signal:

 

Today the signal has switched to a neutral to weak cold signal:

 

H5 changes for same week:

Yesterday:

 

Today:

[StantonParkHoya]

The average high on March 5th in Raleigh is 63 degrees 

[sinterpol]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Well Tony and other SE snowlovers, there’s this pure entertainment value from the 12Z GFS for late March 2-3:

 

Of course, daytime Barney is there:

 

If this happens, Southern Pines would shut down for a week, best believe. 

[NorthHillsWx]

That was fun. Ready to do it again. One more storm, we’ve hit climo, so it’s go big or go home time

[Brick Tamland]

Well, I think thr GFS did the best around here with today's storm.

[StantonParkHoya]

We need father of Barney type cold to deliver in March. As mentioned above, by end of month, we’re almost 70 degrees for highs in Raleigh.

Not to mention — if it does fall, you need rates-of-the-plague to overcome a ferocious sun angle. When it’s on the ground, it gone within hours.

[annieB]

22 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We need father of Barney type cold to deliver in March. As mentioned above, by end of month, we’re almost 70 degrees for highs in Raleigh.

Not to mention — if it does fall, you need rates-of-the-plague to overcome a ferocious sun angle. When it’s on the ground, it gone within hours.

Yes - but most of the fun (for me) is the chase, watching the snow fall, watching the dogs play in it - and then it can be on its way

[suzook]

Is anyone sick of winter yet? I understand being snow starved, but the cold, and overcast days this year seem to be more than normal, and are depressing to me. I am ready for hopefully a nice spring.

[jpbart]

32 minutes ago, suzook said:

Is anyone sick of winter yet? I understand being snow starved, but the cold, and overcast days this year seem to be more than normal, and are depressing to me. I am ready for hopefully a nice spring.

Hoping for a long spring with sunny days but not needing the A/C 24/7 until June.  Yeah, I know.  A man can dream, a man can dream.

[olafminesaw]

snow or severe? #justmarchthings

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

Is anyone sick of winter yet? I understand being snow starved, but the cold, and overcast days this year seem to be more than normal, and are depressing to me. I am ready for hopefully a nice spring.

The only time I like winter is when it's snowing. If it isn't snowing I'd rather it be warm and sunny.

[WXNewton]

Looking at the mid to long-range, it seems like both the EPS and GEFS are showing some interest around 3/3-3/6 period. Also potential for some NW Flow Snow towards the last of Feb.

[StantonParkHoya]

[wncsnow]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Polar March

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Shout out to *checks notes*

 

Houston, TX

New Orleans, LA

Mobile, AL, and 95% of the US that has had snow this season for all having more snow than Charlotte, NC!