Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Models are all over the place except for the Euro. It's the only one that has been consistent with its solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Virginia gets crushed again but it's a solid winter storm for most of NC “Most of NC” and it only shows snow for 10% of the state 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Here is the NWS blend of all models snow and ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 EPS had a nice jump in the overall precip shield while keeping temps about the same as 12z. Seems to be a nice look for many areas. The OP is a little juicier than the EPS mean, but they seem to align well with the overall placement of the precip shield and temps seem to be a little colder on the EPS mean than the OP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Canadian ENS are about the best they have looked, nice uptick for areas around I85/I40 and North this cycle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This system is looking awesome so far! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6z isnt going to make a lot happy….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro AI which has been extremely accurate for the last few storms, is consistent with keeping the low off NC and going ots vs amping up the coast. Much colder and more precip for NC and VA. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6z euro looked like a pretty classic winter storm for central NC. Cold and a good amount of precip. 00z AI looked quite a bit lighter from what I could tell. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Things were trending great yesterday for here, and then after that big GFS run it started trending in the wrong direction. Have to see if that continues today or if we're in for another roller coaster ride on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: 6z euro looked like a pretty classic winter storm for central NC. Cold and a good amount of precip. 00z AI looked quite a bit lighter from what I could tell. TW What exactly did it show for central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Things were trending great yesterday for here, and then after that big GFS run it started trending in the wrong direction. Have to see if that continues today or if we're in for another roller coaster ride on the models. Always feels like this 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: What exactly did it show for central NC? I suspect much of this is sleet not ZR. Regardless, more amped than we would like which seems to be the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We can't ever seem to thread the needle, seems like every time there is a possibility of a snowstorm it never works out. It's crazy and frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Always feels like this And usually ends like this. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 24 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: What exactly did it show for central NC? At hr 144 the storm was basically off Myrtle Beach a bit and precip across pretty much all of NC. WaKe picked up a heavy dusting southeast to almost 2” northwest before a flip to ZR. At 144, roughly 0.40 of ZR had fallen SE to 0.20 in the north. Pretty heavy ZR was falling at 144 across most all of central NC. From the look, it could become a pretty classic nor’easter with most of NC flipping to snow before it ends, but that’s my words and not from the model. Also, Wake stays mostly 30 or below during the storm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’ll take a sleet bomb. Just keep us out of what happened in the first storm this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: And usually ends like this. How waking up this morning felt after yesterdays models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: “Most of NC” and it only shows snow for 10% of the state Freezing rain counts as winter precip and thus a winter storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNoseHater Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 42 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Things were trending great yesterday for here, and then after that big GFS run it started trending in the wrong direction. Have to see if that continues today or if we're in for another roller coaster ride on the models. LOL. I love that you think there’s the possibility of no roller coaster ride. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 LOL. I love that you think there’s the possibility of no roller coaster ride. It feels frequently like im riding thunder road at Carowinds after they started demolition.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z AI was way east yielding a pretty light event for most of NC west of the triangle. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Man it’s been Virginia’s year. They’re on a Tennessee style run right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 6z Euro at hr 144 is sleet and heavy freezing rain for many outside of the mtns. If the run were to extend longer WNC was about to transition to a legit deform band that could really do some damage. This seems like the first storm all year that doesn't just rocket out of the area. I think given the look of everything we could be dealing with a major winter storm in parts on NC and SC that has a wide variety of precipitation with temps well below freezing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 06z EPS looks better than 00z EPS when compared at hr 144, more snow further south and east as well as colder temps. So all and all even though it doesn't go out as far, the EPS looks colder than 00z and more snow with the initial front end. There was still more obviously to come in after hr 144. Also because it was setting up as a colder run freezing rain was further south and east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This seems to be the first storm this winter both with legit cold and lots of moisture. Now it comes down to precip type. I think North of 85 will stay all frozen barring significant inland shifts, which seems unlikely with the depth of cold air. As always, expect an early flip to sleet and a more narrow band of ZR than global models show 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 34 minutes ago, WXNewton said: The 6z Euro at hr 144 is sleet and heavy freezing rain for many outside of the mtns. If the run were to extend longer WNC was about to transition to a legit deform band that could really do some damage. This seems like the first storm all year that doesn't just rocket out of the area. I think given the look of everything we could be dealing with a major winter storm in parts on NC and SC that has a wide variety of precipitation with temps well below freezing. Wild. That track in itself should’ve rendered all areas along and west of I-77 with a foot of snow and almost no mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This is setting up like a classic major winter storm. Been a long time coming. The cold air this has to work with is significantly better than we’re used to with a lot of miller As so, freezing rain might be a bigger issue than normal. From experience though, that freezing rain area will shrink and sleet will become more of a factor. Also if this thing forms a deformation band, they frequently cool the column through rates and you end up with heavy snow in areas progged as a mix a few days out. Lots of words to say: im not buying a massive ice storm in the Carolinas if this is a coastal bomb. Lots to iron out but it is now looking likely (>70%) that central/western NC and most of Virginia will have a significant winter storm. Track will be key as always. We want a slower system still. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Wild. That track in itself should’ve rendered all areas along and west of I-77 with a foot of snow and almost no mixing. SER strikes again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: SER strikes again! It sounds counter intuitive from what we’ve become used to but with a prime cold air source north of this, we need it to start deepening earlier to be able to more efficiently work that air into the system at mid levels. Amped, assuming it doesn’t cut up the coast, might be better here. With the extreme -AO, this might have less chance of cutting even as an amped system. I don’t think BL temps will be an issue especially if this slows down but the mid levels are torched on most modeling except the ones showing it bombing off the Carolina coast. That’s definitely a trend at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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