GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The models remain unanimous with a low of sub -5 AO on/near Feb 15th. Below is the latest GEFS. Today (2/13) it was at -3.7, which is actually lower than the -3.25 this chart shows. That gives me extra confidence that it will go sub -5 in 2 days: Sub -5 AOs are pretty rare and have always been accompanied and/or immediately followed by intense cold and/or wintry in parts and often much of the SE. Here are the ones during DJF since 1950: 1. 2/10-11/2021: major ZR GSO 2/12-13 https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2021/02/rapid-reaction-back-to-back-ice-storms-pound-the-northern-piedmont/#:~:text=February 12-13 Storm&text=Reports aggregated by the National,weakened ground%2C caused numerous outages. 2. 12/18/2010: significant to big snow one week later much of inland SE and light on coast 3. 2/6-7/2010, 2/14/2010: two winter storms (2/5, 2/12-13) affecting most of SE between them including some on coast 2/12-13 4. 1/2-6/2010: light snow N GA/very cold SE 5. 12/20-25/2009: winter storm mainly NC 12/18-19 6. 1/18-20/1985: 1-2 mainly light snows much of inland SE 1/17-20 followed by historic cold 7. 2/5-6/1978: several mainly light snows SE 2/2-9 including some on coast 2/8-9; very cold 8. 1/11-17/1977: snow events almost all of SE during and soon after including Miami and parts of Bahamas 1/19; very cold 9. 12/28-29/1976: several wintry events then into first few days of Jan inland SE; cold 10. 2/13-16/1969: major winter storm 2/15-17 Charlotte to GSP/Asheville; wintry precip most other areas within 2/14-17 including light on coast 11. 1/28/1966: several wintry events 1/25-30 including on coast 1/27 and 1-2 majors much of NC; extreme cold 1/29-31 12. 1/21/1963: extreme cold the week following; several light wintry events inland 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, WXNewton said: The ICON and Canadian are really not that far off from each other, the ICON just seems to phase earlier for a bigger storm. Also, looks like the ICON keys more on the trailing energy than the Canadian. Seeing the Canadian further south and east at this stage in the game is probably a good thing, we know how that will go as it gets closer. The ICON gets the phase at 162 close to the Mississippi River which is perfect for here.Anything too far west or east of there probably won't work. The 500 mb map on the ICON at 162 is what I'm looking for,cooking lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Model consensus currently has a bullseye on Richmond. I would expect that to shift as far south as Down to 85 or as far north as DC over the next few days. Should have a better feel for how things are going to play out in the next 48 hours or so I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12z CMC Ensembles 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 That groundhog is AMS-certified 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 30 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: That groundhog is AMS-certified It's going be be below average for 4 or 5 days then warm back up. February will still be above average for most of us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 39 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: That groundhog is AMS-certified Climo favors this flipping hard at some point to a raging SER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I said this last event and it aged like sour milk but the surface evolution and upper air pattern gives me Feb 2014 vibes. That storm had a multiple wave component to it with a trailing upper low that hammered nw nc. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's going be be below average for 4 or 5 days then warm back up. February will still be above average for most of us. We just spent two full days below 40 degrees and looks like that will happen again next week. Not saying it cancels out the warm start but this is impressive cold, we haven’t seen cold air like this in February in many years 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 27 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I said this last event and it aged like sour milk but the surface evolution and upper air pattern gives me Feb 2014 vibes. That storm had a multiple wave component to it with a trailing upper low that hammered nw nc. Yes sir it did. Lived in Maiden at the time, and had 3-4" of snow and sleet with a little freezing rain then the next morning about 7 a.m. the upper low built in from the west and by lunchtime we had 9.5-10.5". Then listened to reports coming out of Sherrills Ford to Statesville of foot plus totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 35 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's going be be below average for 4 or 5 days then warm back up. February will still be above average for most of us. The MJO will be going through cold phases through months end. Guidance has the AO going from strongly Negative to positive. So, a bit of conflict regarding staying cold or going warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Yes sir it did. Lived in Maiden at the time, and had 3-4" of snow and sleet with a little freezing rain then the next morning about 7 a.m. the upper low built in from the west and by lunchtime we had 9.5-10.5". Then listened to reports coming out of Sherrills Ford to Statesville of foot plus totals. Lived in Mount Airy at the time. Woke up with 9 ish inches after day 1 and proceeded to double it in a quarter of the time. Still probably my favorite event of all time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Lived in Mount Airy at the time. Woke up with 9 ish inches after day 1 and proceeded to double it in a quarter of the time. Still probably my favorite event of all time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 13 minutes ago, WXNewton said: What a beaut! People got so bored being stranded on I-77 and Hwy 52 that they got out of their cars and just made snowmen and had a good time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 17 minutes ago, WXNewton said: As the 850 low passed i saw the highest rate of my life. Wild 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: It's going be be below average for 4 or 5 days then warm back up. February will still be above average for most of us. Asheville is +9 for Feb 1-12. The forecast per the 12Z EPS mean (which is between the less cold GEFS and the typically colder GEPS) is for -7 the rest of the month. If the EPS mean verifies well, Asheville will end Feb very near average. I admit that the 12Z EPS mean may be overdoing the length of the BN to some extent. But fwiw, it literally has Asheville BN on Feb 14 and then the 12 day period Feb 17-28 implying high chances for a significantly longer than 4-5 day period BN. Here is the new Euro Weeklies (based on 0Z EPS) for Feb 17-23, coldest yet by a good margin: that’s ~11BN for Asheville. The entire SE other than FL is BN even for mid-Jan: Feb 17-23 qpf: keep in mind that NN or even slightly BN is still pretty wet in mid to late Feb: 0.85-1.5” NW to SE in much of GA/Carolinas (ATL/Charlotte 0.85”; Triad/Triangle 1”, Augusta/CAE/ILM 1.2”; CHS/SAV 1.5”) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crackle32 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 16 minutes ago, GaWx said: Asheville is +9 for Feb 1-12. The forecast per the 12Z EPS mean (which is between the less cold GEFS and the typically colder GEPS) is for -7 the rest of the month. If the EPS mean verifies well, Asheville will end Feb very near average. I admit that the 12Z EPS mean may be overdoing the length of the BN to some extent. But fwiw, it literally has Asheville BN on Feb 14 and then the 12 day period Feb 17-28 implying high chances for a significantly longer than 4-5 day period BN. Here is the new Euro Weeklies (based on 0Z EPS) for Feb 17-23, coldest yet by a good margin: that’s ~11BN for Asheville. The entire SE other than FL is BN even for mid-Jan: Feb 17-23 qpf: keep in mind that NN or even slightly BN is still pretty wet in mid to late Feb: 0.85”-1.5” NW to SE in GA/Carolinas (ATL/Charlotte 0.85”; Triad/Triangle 1”, CAE 1.15” That's a lot of dark orange in much of the southeast. Does that mean dry ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 48 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: The MJO will be going through cold phases through months end. Guidance has the AO going from strongly Negative to positive. So, a bit of conflict regarding staying cold or going warm. Most of the models show more of a zonal pattern after next week. Could change but I don't see prolonged cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, Crackle32 said: That's a lot of dark orange in much of the southeast. Does that mean dry ? That doesn’t mean dry. It means drier than climo avg. for 2/17-23. For Marietta, it still is giving 0.70” (not dry at all but drier than climo avg of 1.1”). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 59 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Yes sir it did. Lived in Maiden at the time, and had 3-4" of snow and sleet with a little freezing rain then the next morning about 7 a.m. the upper low built in from the west and by lunchtime we had 9.5-10.5". Then listened to reports coming out of Sherrills Ford to Statesville of foot plus totals. Yea I had 13" Total in Western NC .... got 3-4" from the deform pivot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: It's going be be below average for 4 or 5 days then warm back up. February will still be above average for most of us. This is hardly a full gone conclusion. The pattern is volatile currently. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 FWIW, the 12z AI is a good hit, especially for the northern piedmont into VA and SE VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 35 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Most of the models show more of a zonal pattern after next week. Could change but I don't see prolonged cold. A bit late for prolonged un the SE anyway. However, with the MJO in Cold Phases there's room for some cold and Snow chances in the upper SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It's early, but I think happy hour GFS just might live up to it's name. Hanging back more through 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Yeah, looks like the GFS is going to be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18Z GFS: Barney doing his cold thing at 2m and 850 mb. Preliminary maps showing the low over MX in combo with the cold may mean more suppressed than 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Doesn't the AI have another system for next weekend as well? TW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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