olafminesaw Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: And then another wintry threat follows Barney on 12Z GFS Gets squashed Louisiana and Texas win again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Is that 30"" just south of Raleigh? lol gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Oh my! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The GFS is much faster, not allowing the cold air to get established. It's all about timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 CMC is almost a carbon copy of 0z GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'm getting that feeling folks. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: The GFS is much faster, not allowing the cold air to get established. It's all about timing ^^^This. Overall looks at H5 are very similar. Oz GFS was much slower and allowed 1030+ heights to build into Virginia pre-storm which brought in the cold air before the storm. Very much like the Canadian. There isn’t that much difference in setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 At a minimum I’m thinking I’ll have good skiing in Virginia next weekend!!! Possibly fresh snow with serious cold. Could possibly have hit the timing jackpot for an east coast family ski trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I'm getting that feeling folks. Then consider starting the thread, Mr. Tamland! Holy Barney on 12Z CMC! Is it overdoing it? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Just now, GaWx said: Then consider starting the thread, Mr. Tamland! Holy Barney on 12Z CMC! Is it overdoing it? Please don't start a thread Brick. 3 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So far all 12z guidance has a storm and plentiful cold air available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Please don't start a thread Brick. No, not yet. Patience. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12Z GEFS impressive cold preceding storm possibility: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GEFS seems to generally be in lockstep with the GFS, but definitely a bit south/ colder 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 UKMET was about to be good at the end of it's run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 UK is about to unload at day 7,trailing shortwave behind that and that probably blows up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: UK is about to unload at day 7,trailing shortwave behind that and that probably blows up. 12Z UK has surface low moving into W Gulf SE of Brownsville heading ENE with 1049 Arctic high over SD: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025021212&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: UK is about to unload at day 7,trailing shortwave behind that and that probably blows up. ICON has storm too. I think at this point the models are all in theory with each other on some type of winter storm. I guess at this range that's all we can hope for. I want complain about a little extra model watching for a few days! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1. 12Z Euro running late on WB. Weenie induced slowdown? 2. 12Z GEFS 10:1 snow: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Definitely a storm signal around the 20th. Canadian and ICON colder with huge storm on the Canadian for NC. GFS warmer. And looked like the UK was going to deliver the goods. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Definitely a storm signal around the 20th. Canadian and ICON colder with huge storm on the Canadian for NC. GFS warmer. And looked like the UK was going to deliver the goods. All 5 periods of a sub -5 AO in Feb back to 1950 had wintry precip on or near those dates in RDU and/or GSO: 2021, 2010 (two periods), 1978, and 1969 fwiw. 12Z Euro still not started which means it’s at least 35-40 minutes late getting started. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: All 5 periods of a sub -5 AO in Feb back to 1950 had wintry precip on or near those dates in RDU and/or GSO: 2021, 2010 (two periods), 1978, and 1969 fwiw. 12Z Euro still not started which means it’s at least 35-40 minutes late getting started. Weenie traffic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This is from Pivotal. (12 Feb 2025) Due to problems with data dissemination from ECMWF, 12z Euro model data will be delayed this afternoon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: This is from Pivotal. (12 Feb 2025) Due to problems with data dissemination from ECMWF, 12z Euro model data will be delayed this afternoon. The Euro is having trouble even processing the amount snow its sensing for 2/20. Shut the whole system down. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 https://x.com/ECMWF/status/1889742587109445760 Love how all the comments are Turkish weather weenies, apparently there is quite a blast of arctic air coming their way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said: The Euro is having trouble even processing the amount snow its sensing for 2/20. Shut the whole system down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 UKMET ensembles much stronger ridging than the GEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Another picture from out my way 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: UKMET ensembles much stronger ridging than the GEFS The last two 12 hourly UK ens runs have trended toward more cold air getting into SE from the Plains Arctic high along with the surface low’s mean track being further SE. Two runs ago, the mean low was tracking inland into N FL vs the current run’s 100 miles offshore the SE coast: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2025021112&fh=198&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc= 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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