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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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Brick couldn't quite reel in the brick storm to everyone's satisfaction, this one is all Barney, work your magic anthropomorphized dinosaur 
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This might be the first time since i was a kid watching Pokémon that i strongly believe that there needed to be a seizure warning on something.


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1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Does anyone have any examples of big snow storms in late February in a LA Nina year?

RDU La Niña 4”+ snows Feb 15-28:

2/16/1996: 5.6”

2/23-4/1989: 4.2”

2/17-8/1989: 4.9”

2/25/1894: 5.0”


GSO had 5.7” just after Feb (3/1-2/2009). Also, other areas like ATL and Athens had a big snow 3/1/2009.

 

Athens, GA:

2/23/1989: 4.6”

2/24-5/1894 (this also hit ATL)

 

 So, 2009 (Mar 1-2), 1996, 1989, and 1894 had major SE snowstorms Feb 15th-Mar 2nd in La Niña in SE US.

RDU had 2 big snows later in Mar in La Niña: 3/10/1934: 8.0” and 3/25-26/1971: 5.3”

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON looks like it’s going to be a big storm 

Kinda fizzles but it’s a nice gulf low track with snow in the northern half of NC and ice south into South Carolina. Might be wrapping up some too as it gets into Atlantic. Definitely close 

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19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

RDU La Niña 4”+ snows Feb 15-28:

2/16/1996: 5.6”

2/23-4/1989: 4.2”

2/17-8/1989: 4.9”

2/25/1894: 5.0”


GSO had 5.7” just after Feb (3/1-2/2009). Also, other areas like ATL and Athens had a big snow 3/1/2009.

 

Athens, GA:

2/23/1989: 4.6”

2/24-5/1894

 

 So, 2009 (Mar 1-2), 1996, 1989, and 1894 had major snowstorms Feb 15th-Mar 2nd in La Niña in SE US.

RDU had 2 big snows later in Mar in La Niña: 3/10/1934: 8.0” and 3/25-26/1971: 5.3”

Inconclusive indicies related to those periods, not really what I would expect. Could be obscured in the period by a short period of chance on the indicies, which is not reflected in February's average. I also wonder how rare it is to get +PNA, -NAO, -AO in a la Nina year. We probably don't have a very good analog pattern.

2009 AO -, PNA -, NAO neutral

1996 AO neutral , PNA -, NAO neutral

1989 AO +, PNA -, NAO positive

 

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18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Inconclusive indicies related to those periods, not really what I would expect. Could be obscured in the period by a short period of chance on the indicies, which is not reflected in February's average. I also wonder how rare it is to get +PNA, -NAO, -AO in a la Nina year. We probably don't have a very good analog pattern.

2009 AO -, PNA -, NAO neutral

1996 AO neutral , PNA -, NAO neutral

1989 AO +, PNA -, NAO positive

 

Going back to 1950, I couldn’t find a single La Niña Feb out of the 26 of them that had both a +PNA and a -AO! So, 2025 will end up quite unique in that regard.

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