Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Does anyone on here have how much sleet the models are showing?

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thank you!

[Daniel Boone]

Heavy Sleet being reported on the Plateau in Tennessee now. 

[tarheelwx]

31.6 here in Colfax, about 5 miles west of GSO.  

TW

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, tarheelwx said:

31.6 here in Colfax, about 5 miles west of GSO.  

TW

Seriously? 38 here

[tarheelwx]

4 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Seriously? 38 here

Yes.  My place is a fair distance from any major roads, but more importantly it's in a fairly low place.  So any time in the winter that it's clear and calm, we tend to cool down pretty quick, and several degrees colder than GSO.  

TW

[Tullioz]

30.4° at my location just west of Eden. The dew point is 28.6°. A few stations are reporting 28° along the NC/VA border in Stokes and Caswell counties. I expect the temperatures to rise a little once clouds start to roll in. 

[BornAgain13]

It has gotten colder than what they were thinking at my home. It's 29.6 degrees with a dew point of 28.1

[WXNewton]

Temps even down in Catawba County right now are running anywhere from 34.9-37.2 on local weather stations. Most models have my area between 41-43 degrees right now. Not sure if that will convert to colder temps or not when the moisture arrives, but certainly colder than what it's supposed  to be.

[Buddy1987]

30/18 here. 0z NAM just dropped 1.29” of freezing rain by the end of its run here 

[kvegas-wx]

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

30/18 here. 0z NAM just dropped 1.29” of freezing rain by the end of its run here 

Enjoy getting your power back on......in 2026!!  

[David6310]

33f at the house.  We're about halfway between KGSO and Friendly Shopping Center

[BornAgain13]

Steady snow coming down at the house. Looks like the dry line is creeping northward. Then later today is when the sleet and ZR come. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Few pingers here earlier 

[Upstate Tiger]

Next period to watch for NC is end of next week.  Globals keep hinting at a storm further south.  

[Tullioz]

Received a light coating of snow and sleet overnight. Precipitation has ended for now.  32.4/32.1

[kvegas-wx]

Central VA special on this one.  What a moisture feed back to Arkansas!

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Central VA special on this one.  What a moisture feed back to Arkansas!

Someone’s getting 1 foot+

[WXNewton]

GFS and EURO Ensembles both showing a good signal around the 20th.

[NorthHillsWx]

Cousins in Richmond are reporting SN+ already. 

[NorthHillsWx]

10 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Thank you!

What’d yall get from the front end thump 

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, WXNewton said:

GFS and EURO Ensembles both showing a good signal around the 20th.

The 500 mb pattern is a thing of beauty during that stretch. 

[suzook]

The cold was overdone for this timeframe last week. The next wave is probably overdone also. We are running out of time the further south we are.

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The 500 mb pattern is a thing of beauty during that stretch. 

NAO trends slightly negative around that timeframe so maybe we can get a storm with some blocking. The Arctic air coming is similar to the January airmass we saw. I don’t think cold air availability will be an issue, just storm track. There appears to be a VERY strong signal for a storm around the 20th. And possibly a follow up system later that week. I’m skiing in Massanutten the 20th-23rd so it could be well timed 

[BooneWX]

The GEFS and EPS are almost identical at this range. The specifics will need to be worked out but yea this pattern has serious legs to it. I’d like to see that 50/50 low slightly further west but that’s nitpicking a beautiful setup. Look at that block to the north!

There’s plenty of cold in Canada and it should get displaced. The next few days while we build boats, southern Canada and New England will be building a glacier. We’ve been on a trend this year of having highs to the north but they’re either too weak or not in an optimal position. If we can build that snowpack above us, I think we could make more of these 1030-1035mb HPs benefit us. I don’t think this pattern favors a cutter, it favors a big EC storm. Someone, maybe us, maybe not, is about to get possibly the storm of the year. With as cold as this winter has been, it’s only right that it happens.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, suzook said:

The cold was overdone for this timeframe last week. The next wave is probably overdone also. We are running out of time the further south we are.

I never believed this airmass would work. This was a stalled boundary and with the SER orientation it is very hard to get these to seep south. The cold was not overdone north of us. With a 50/50 low, no SER and the Arctic open for business, next week is a totally different animal from a cold air transport perspective. It’s kind of what you’re looking for in terms of getting cold air into the southeast….

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, suzook said:

The cold was overdone for this timeframe last week. The next wave is probably overdone also. We are running out of time the further south we are.

Yes you’re probably out of time in Georgia but you don’t have to remind the rest of the thread about that every other post.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The GEFS and EPS are almost identical at this range. The specifics will need to be worked out but yea this pattern has serious legs to it. I’d like to see that 50/50 low slightly further west but that’s nitpicking a beautiful setup. Look at that block to the north!

There’s plenty of cold in Canada and it should get displaced. The next few days while we build boats, southern Canada and New England will be building a glacier. We’ve been on a trend this year of having highs to the north but they’re either too weak or not in an optimal position. If we can build that snowpack above us, I think we could make more of these 1030-1035mb HPs benefit us. I don’t think this pattern favors a cutter, it favors a big EC storm. Someone, maybe us, maybe not, is about to get possibly the storm of the year. With as cold as this winter has been, it’s only right that it happens.


.

As you mentioned, that’s a big dog setup. I’m not saying we (the southeast) gets a snowstorm but the pattern favors an east coast storm and there will be a lot of cold air north of the track. 

[BooneWX]

Shocked no one posted this yet


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[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Cousins in Richmond are reporting SN+ already. 

Reporting 2 inches in 2 hours. That’s a great front end. Radar looks juiced for a few more hours