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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS with a Major ICE Storm with some Snow for the bordering counties. 

I have a feeling that once that storm gets into the short range, the NAM and RGEM might expand that I've even further south. I've said it before, the wedge always seems to even pool a little deeper once it sinks down into the Catawba Valley area. It will definitely be worth watching.

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9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Fwiw, the 18zAI is much colder compared to 12z for the northern piedmont of NC and on up into VA

Yeah, not surprised at the CAD showing signs of being stronger as we approach verification. Far cry from the warm rain we were anticipating a few days ago.

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3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

@Buddy1987you are in a solid spot right now for heavy snow.  Looks like Snow to ICE to rain here as it stands right now. 

I want to believe it so bad but been burned so many times recently I’m cautiously optimistic. Definitely tracking. 

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2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

It won't north, but the precip shield must of been expanded more north. Still a solid snow and ice storm for central and southern VA 

DC went from 1” to 7” and the freezing line furthest extent moved from the first tier of northern NC counties back into Virginia. And precip as a whole, not frozen, corrected way north. Pretty significant north swing in my book

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1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Not really concerned about ice. Dew points a few hours before onset are nowhere near what you typically see, even in VA.

gfs_Td2m_seus_12.png

Yea starting to think this is either plain rain or snow. Just not really a good high to funnel cold into CAD areas and even if it is freezing rain it’s looking like 31-32 degrees which obviously doesn’t accumulate efficiently 

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