wncsnow Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Even DC is on the edge now. Probably best to be in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 16 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Even DC is on the edge now. Probably best to be in PA. Or Canada lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6z AI continues further north. Shows PA getting the most snow. Still shows a little light icing in the CAD regions of nc and VA but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I had no doubt this one was going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12z GFS went back south again with ICE in the normal spots... northern VA is fringed per GFS and central VA gets rocked. 2nd system for Wednesday with a stronger CAD brings more ICE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Strong HP anchored to the NNE for the Wednesday/Thursday system. That's the one that definitely could be a legit ICE storm for CAD regions if that HP holds in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12z GFS ICE & Snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 If that much snow falls just 60 miles to my north, I'll probably go on a Snow chase that day lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The 12z CMC is much further south from 0z. The windshield wiper effect continues. Also the cmc comes in with ICE like the GFS for the Wednesday system, albeit light. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: If that much snow falls just 60 miles to my north, I'll probably go on a Snow chase that day lol If you can’t get it, chase it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If you can’t get it, chase it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I'll just be checking the Cascaded webcams instead of the models... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The 12Z Euro has been stuck at 105 for an hour. Edit: now it is coming in. Light snow N 1-2 tiers of NC counties Mon morning (2/10). ZR far NW NC 2/10-1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Flooding looks to be a legit threat for N GA, E TN and WNC and SC. Multiple waves of rain, some heavy from next Monday onward. This is just through 10 days. Theres more rain after this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12z CMC ensemble wintry precip dropped significantly further south thru day 10 compared to 0z. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Not a forecasting post but I’m putting this Jan recap here due to higher traffic and since it is fairly quiet for now: SE cold lovers like myself should feel fortunate that Jan was as cold as it was as the cold anomaly there was as strong as anywhere on the globe. I’ll reiterate that the Euro Weeklies did a great job forecasting the SE US to have the coldest on the globe. This shows -2 to -4C (likely mainly -2 to -3C or -3.6 to -5.4F) vs 1951-80 base. To convert to comparison to 1991-2020 base, one can probably add ~1-1.5F making the anomaly ~-4.5 to -7F anomaly for many. One has to wonder when the next cold month will be: 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: Not a forecasting post but I’m putting this here due to higher traffic and since it is fairly quiet for now: SE cold lovers like myself should feel fortunate that Jan was as cold as it was as the cold anomaly there was as strong as anywhere in the globe. I’ll reiterate that the Euro Weeklies did a great job forecasting the SE US to have the coldest on the globe. This shows -2 to -4C (likely mainly -2 to -3C or -3.6 to -5.4F) vs 1951-80 base. To convert to comparison to 1991-2020 base, one can probably add ~1-1.5F making the anomaly ~-4.5 to -7F anomaly for many. One has to wonder when the next cold month will be: Euro weeklies have been really accurate this winter, as compared to last 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 26 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Flooding looks to be a legit threat for N GA, E TN and WNC and SC. Multiple waves of rain, some heavy from next Monday onward. This is just through 10 days. Theres more rain after this. I can see we’re going to do this thing again where we don’t have normal rain ever. Feast or famine. Wildfires or flood stage. Nothing in between. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I don’t know how to describe this other than calling this pure insanity: is this real? Of course the NW trend could mean much lower, especially close to the coast, would verify. So, for now I’m not buying this much will actually fall: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: I don’t know how to describe this other than calling this pure insanity: is this real? Of course the NW trend could mean much lower, especially close to the coast, would verify: so for now I’m not buying this much That is wild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: That is wild! Boston has had 13.9” of snow this winter to date (low vs their climo). I know, boo hoo lol. If this EPS were to verify, they’d add a whopping 22” over just the next 13 days or 1.5 times their amount to date! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Flooding looks to be a legit threat for N GA, E TN and WNC and SC. Multiple waves of rain, some heavy from next Monday onward. This is just through 10 days. Theres more rain after this. Yep, flooding is a big concern. Here’s 12Z EPS mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 34 minutes ago, GaWx said: I don’t know how to describe this other than calling this pure insanity: is this real? Of course the NW trend could mean much lower, especially close to the coast, would verify. So, for now I’m not buying this much will actually fall: Chances are the boundary won’t sit there that long or there won’t be as much activity riding along it as the Euro shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 50 minutes ago, GaWx said: For now I’m not buying this much will actually fall: Why not? I have lived through many 24+ inch snowstorms on LI. The NE is due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 32 minutes ago, GaWx said: Yep, flooding is a big concern. Here’s 12Z EPS mean: Gosh why couldn't some of that be snow, back in the fifties sixties and seventies we had 4 or 5 good snow events. Now we can't buy a couple of good events, what has happened to our snow events like we use to have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, Tacoma said: Gosh why couldn't some of that be snow, back in the fifties sixties and seventies we had 4 or 5 good snow events. Now we can't buy a couple of good events, what has happened to our snow events like we use to have? Search your feelings, you know why 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 23 minutes ago, Tacoma said: Gosh why couldn't some of that be snow, back in the fifties sixties and seventies we had 4 or 5 good snow events. Now we can't buy a couple of good events, what has happened to our snow events like we use to have? My man remembers the 50's! How old are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 19 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Search your feelings, you know why At least we didn't have to live through the 30s! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: My man remembers the 50's! How old are you? Let’s change the subject. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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