Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[suzook]

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I can’t stand the bring on spring crowd. We live in the south. 9 months out of the year are hot. Let us enjoy whatever cold we can until that arrives. 80 in early February didn’t make me happy today 

I don't consider it hot until it hits the 90's.

[NorthHillsWx]

18 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You want 35 and rain 3 times in the next 2 weeks? That's misery. 

No. I want snow. But I’m not rooting for 80s if I don’t get it 

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You want 35 and rain 3 times in the next 2 weeks? That's misery. 

There’s much more to winter than cold rain and snow/sleet. What about normal winter daytime highs of, say, 50s with sunshine/beautiful Canadian blue skies? There are many dry days typically in winter. I’d much rather have days like those than days in the 80s.

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There’s much more to winter than cold rain and snow/sleet. What about normal winter daytime highs of, say, 50s with sunshine/beautiful Canadian blue skies. I’d much rather have days like those than days in the 80s.

Well that's not in the forecast the next few weeks either. If I had the choice I would take 70s and sunny even in February over 30s and 40s and rain. Where I live gets multiple cold air wedges a season and sometimes it's foggy for days with mist. It can be 70 in Asheville and 50 in Marion in the spring and fall.

 

50s and sunny is nice but that's the norm and the norm is not so normal anymore. 

[StantonParkHoya]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There’s much more to winter than cold rain and snow/sleet. What about normal winter daytime highs of, say, 50s with sunshine/beautiful Canadian blue skies? There are many dry days typically in winter. I’d much rather have days like those than days in the 80s.

To each their own… 80s and sunny with fresh cut grass and a smoking grill is nirvana 

[tarheelwx]

Now back to your regularly scheduled channel.....

From what I could tell, the 18z AI stayed pretty similar.  It looked like temps dropped below freezing for western NC (probably from Raleigh west) and maybe getting down in the upstate just a bit.  From the freebie maps, I didn't see any big changes. 

TW

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

To each their own… 80s and sunny with fresh cut grass and a smoking grill is nirvana 

Indeed. But what you’re describing is possible much of the rest of the year. That gets old fast imo. I like different seasons, especially our precious short winters. I enjoy wearing corduroys, jackets, and hats and not having the worry about sweating all of the time.

[Upstate Tiger]

When the natives get restless and this place turns into Lord of the Flies, one needn’t look at the models. 

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Now back to your regularly scheduled channel.....

From what I could tell, the 18z AI stayed pretty similar.  It looked like temps dropped below freezing for western NC (probably from Raleigh west) and maybe getting down in the upstate just a bit.  From the freebie maps, I didn't see any big changes. 

TW

Euro AI 850 mb from 18Z 24 hrs ago: Asheville -4C; RDU -2C and in middle of large 15-18” snowfall area that had extended down to all of NE GA/NW SC

 

Euro AI 850 mb from new 18Z: snow line much further N than 24 hrs ago and further N than prior run (furthest N yet): Asheville +1C; RDU +4C with snow line then at NC/VA border (last run -1C):

[WXNewton]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Euro AI 850 mb from 18Z 24 hrs ago: RDU -2C and in middle of large 15-18” snowfall area that extends down to all of NE GA/NW SC

 

Euro AI 850 mb from new 18Z: snow line much further N than 24 hrs ago and further N than prior run (furthest N yet): RDU +4C with snow line then at NC/VA border (last run -1C):

Starting to come in alignment with ensembles, I think this storm is presenting itself early where the bulk of the frozen will be. 

[tarheelwx]

While a bit warmer than previous runs, surface temps are below freezing for much of the precip in NC Cad areas.  Not expecting a big snowstorm for sure, but a big winter storm is still on the table for virtually all of VA and parts of northern and western NC...... where ice could play a major role.

TW

[BornAgain13]

Whatever happened to the people on here that used to say "the models are underdoing the CAD." Could that be the case this time?

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

While a bit warmer than previous runs, surface temps are below freezing for much of the precip in NC Cad areas.  Not expecting a big snowstorm for sure, but a big winter storm is still on the table for virtually all of VA and parts of northern and western NC...... where ice could play a major role.

TW

Even on this warmer AI run, RDU appears to still get ~2-3” of snow before change to IP and then ZR. But yes it’s changing to more of an icestorm on the Euro AI.

 And trend northward of 850s may not be done since this was warmest and storm is still near a week out.

[WXNewton]

17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Whatever happened to the people on here that used to say "the models are underdoing the CAD." Could that be the case this time?

I agree, I just did a trend on the surface temps on the Euro AI run and the northern progression of temps at or below 32 seem to hold steady (roughly) in the same counties as the previous run. It's has def. trended warmer, but at least that trend has slowed down a lot on the last run when compared to the previous runs. I have observed the CAD in the heart of Catawba County for many years, and if a high pressure gets somewhat locked in, I know for a fact it is almost always colder than what the models show. It never fails, the short range models will tend to lock in the cold air deeper and longer usually in the last 12-18 hours before an event. I think this wedge could be modeled a little stronger over the NW Piedmont and Southern Foothills as time goes on.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

38 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Starting to come in alignment with ensembles, I think this storm is presenting itself early where the bulk of the frozen will be. 

Not really liking where this is going. This is trending towards a Miller B storm. If that's the case, we will see the CAD trend stronger/colder at the surface while the 850's stay warm. That spells "lights out for us"

[NorthHillsWx]

27 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Whatever happened to the people on here that used to say "the models are underdoing the CAD." Could that be the case this time?

I’m sure they will be underdoing it somewhat but this is a fickle airmass. It’s not established beforehand and the high is sliding with the system. It’s not like we’re leading into this one with an arctic airmass and DPs in single digits

[BornAgain13]

0z ICON with a rough ice storm next week for some CAD areas.

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z ICON with a rough ice storm next week for some CAD areas.

It's way north of the 12Z. Trend is obvious. 

[BornAgain13]

0z GFS with a winter storm on Wednesday/Thursday after the Monday/Tuesday ice and rain. It's mainly ice taken verbatim but more widespread 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

It's way north of the 12Z. Trend is obvious. 

Good news with lowered icestorm threat per 0Z Icon due to it being warmer than 12Z. Also, 0Z CMC a little warmer than its 12Z. Less ZR/IP.

[Daniel Boone]

Still a long ways . Hopefully blocking will strengthen and force it South.

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Good news for lowered icestorm threat per 0Z Icon due to it being warmer than 12Z. Also, 0Z CMC a little warmer than its 12Z. Less ZR/IP.

The Wednesday/Thursday threat seems to be colder with more zr/ip than the mon/Tues on the gfs and cmc

[BornAgain13]

Rough ice storms for some folks next week per latest gfs and cmc

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: benign for SE

[GaWx]

0Z EPS 10:1 snow:

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Even on this warmer AI run, RDU appears to still get ~2-3” of snow before change to IP and then ZR. But yes it’s changing to more of an icestorm on the Euro AI.

 And trend northward of 850s may not be done since this was warmest and storm is still near a week out.

0Z Euro AI: even warmer with significantly further N 0C 850 line; no snow most of NC now (just some in far NW NC) so warmer trend not over; still some ZR N NC into VA

[BornAgain13]

Latest 0z and 6z Euro send this thing much further north even bringing a lot of ice to northern VA. The SE ridge is winning on the latest runs.

[CentralNC]

13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Latest 0z and 6z Euro send this thing much further north even bringing a lot of ice to northern VA. The SE ridge is winning on the latest runs.

Shocked. 

RAH not quite giving up yet - at least in my neck of the woods.

Monday through Tuesday:  Things get a bit more interesting Monday
into Tuesday as models are finally hinting at a bit more
energy/amplification aloft. A heavy dose of mid-level perturbations
and height falls embedded within a strengthening southern-stream jet
could possibly start spilling into our area Monday through Tuesday.
With some colder air expected to be in place by Tuesday, ptype
concerns may arise. For now, will continue to mention likely rain
with slight chance snow early Tuesday for the northern two-thirds of
the CWA. However, this surely could change as we get closer to early
next week.

[eyewall]

We know how this goes. Best to write it off at this point.

[NorthHillsWx]

33 minutes ago, eyewall said:

We know how this goes. Best to write it off at this point.

You might need to go on vacation again, apparently that’s what it takes to get a decent snow here now (kidding)